000
FXUS63 KABR 111900
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
200 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures this weekend, close to 80 degrees
  on Saturday/Sunday. Chance of rain Monday afternoon through
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The system that brought showers to the region this morning will
continue to move out of the forecast area tonight. Any lingering
mostly diabatically driven showers should end before midnight. For
Friday and Friday night a decent ridge aloft will build east across
the Northern Plains. As upper heights rise, so will temperatures. A
modest temp rebound is expected for Friday, but a much warmer
airmass is forecast to develop over the region this weekend.
Conditions will also remain pretty much dry for the weekend within
the upper ridge axis.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The period starts off with a broad ridge centered over the middle of
the CONUS. The ridge looks to amplify even more as a system drops
into the Four Corners area over the southwest CONUS by Monday. That
system will eject into the Plains early next week. Up until that
point, the ABR CWA should be mostly dry. Come Monday as the system
nears, chances for pcpn increase substantially. Monday night through
Tuesday night. 24hr probs of a quarter inch or more reach the 50-80
percent range during that time period. Half inch probs are even
relatively high. So, the chance for measurable rains looks good.
After Tuesday night, pcpn chances continue as an upper system splays
out across the Northern Plains, with continue chances for pcpn.
Temperatures will start the period above normal. 2m temp anomalies
are forecast some 10-16C above normal for both Sat and Sunday. Early
to middle next week will feature near normal temps as an abundance
of clouds/pcpn spreads over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The last of the MVFR cigs will linger for a short time at KATY
early this afternoon, but VFR conditions will return here by mid-
afternoon. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAF sites through this forecast period. Gusty northwest winds
this afternoon will diminish this evening into the overnight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Vipond