481
FXUS63 KABR 081736 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms across east
  central SD late this afternoon through mid evening. Large hail
  (1 inch) and strong winds (60 mph gusts) are the main threats.

- Showers linger into Thursday before cutting off from north to
  south Thursday afternoon.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures can be expected
  through Thursday. Above average temperatures are looking likely
  over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1043 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Made some minor adjustments to sky conditions across the CWA to
better align with satellite trends. Lighter winds across the
region today compared to yesterday, along with warmer temps. Will
monitor shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon
across the region, especially over the southeast CWA. There,
enough instability and shear will be present to perhaps bring a
few strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds (up to 60mph)
and hail up to the size of quarters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Low pressure continues to weaken early this morning with a
broadening circulation. The upper low will move southeast through SD
over the course of the day. By 21z a weak sfc low, or inverted sfc
trough depending on the model, sets up near Watertown in the
vicinity of the upper low and ample shortwave energy. These features
could be the focal point for strong to severe thunderstorm
development from 21z to 3z. SPC has a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for
severe storms in east central SD. Instability parameters on the NAM
are only moderately supportive of this scenario, though. Bulk shear
is around 35 kts, but CAPE is lacking north of Brookings - only 600
to 800 J/kg.

Showers will linger into Thursday under a trailing upper trough with
embedded shortwaves. However, as winds shift to the north, drier air
will move in helping to cut precip off from north to south in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thursday night, we are still in a bit of an upper level trough
pattern, however, no shortwave energy is in the region. The trough
continues to move east. Friday afternoon, a shortwave just clips the
eastern edge of our area. We remain in a northwest flow pattern
through Monday when a low comes down out of southern Canada just to
our east. Once this moves east, the upper level flow remains from
the northwest through the end of the period.

The first half of the period stays dry and it`s not until Monday
evening that the NBM starts to show some light PoPs (15-30%) across
the CWA. This lasts into early Tuesday morning. The next chance for
some rain is Tuesday afternoon the end of the period where NBM gives
30-35% PoPs through 1 AM Wednesday morning and then drops to 15-25%
after 7 AM, only to increase back to 30-35% for the afternoon hours.
Its a bit too far out to determine if any storms will form and/or
become severe.

With the shortwave on Friday, while we are not expecting any rain,
gusts of 35+ mph are possible across the area. These will diminish
pretty quickly once the sun goes down. This looks to be the best
chance for higher wind gusts during the period. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s during the period and hold
steady until Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail early on in the TAF period. By late
afternoon, expect scattered -SHRA/SHRA and -TSRA/TSRA across the
region, with higher coverage near KATY potentially. CIGs are
still forecast to remain VFR within any SHRA/TSRA, but VSBY may
drop to MVFR or even IFR under heavier downpours. Near KATY,
potential exists for strong to severe storms, with gusty and
erratic surface gusts over 40 kts and GR (hail) possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT