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000
FXAK69 PAFG 142317
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
317 PM AKDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern continues across Northern Alaska as a
series of storms move east northeast. A low pressure system is
expected to bring another round of strong southerly winds, snow,
and blowing snow from St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait
north to Point Hope this afternoon into Monday. Another system
will move out of the southern Bering and to the Y-K Delta Monday
and the north along the West Coast through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 482 dam (decameter) low remains near the North
Pole. A shortwave stretching from the low south to Mackenzie Bay
to a weakening 532 dam low offshore southeast Alaska slides
eastward as a 560 dam ridge moves to the central Gulf of Alaska
Monday afternoon. The ridge axis extends north out of the North
Pacific this afternoon to Sand Point to Unalakleet to near
Kotzebue Sound shifting east to stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to
Glenallen to Circle to Kaktovik Monday afternoon and east of the
AlCan border by Tuesday afternoon. Behind the ridge, a 532 dam low
100 NM north of Amchitka weakens as into an open wave as it moves
to be near St Matthew Island by Monday afternoon. Broad upper
level troughing extends southwest across eastern Russia from the
low near the North Pole, with a strong shortwave extending across
Wrangel Island to southeastern Chukotka by Monday afternoon. This
shortwave absorbs the energy from the wave moving north of St
Matthew Monday night. The shortwave slowly pushes east through
Tuesday with the trough axis stretching from the low to Wrangel
Island across the Gulf of Anadyr to east of Atka and south into
the far North Pacific.

At the surface, a 1026 mb high over Mackenzie Bay moves east into
the Northern Territories through Monday. A 990 mb low 500 NM
northeast of Wrangel Island lifts north towards the pole through
Tuesday. A 1000 mb low pushes offshore the Chukotsk Peninsula
tonight to be 175 NM southeast of Wrangel Island Monday morning
and then tracks northeast along the western Arctic Coast to be 75
NM north of Wainwright Monday afternoon at 1003 mb and 375 NM
north of Kaktovik Tuesday morning, continuing northeast through
Tuesday. A 992 mb low 100 NM north of Amchitka quickly moves
northeast to be 75 NM southeast of St Matthew Island Monday
afternoon, to the Bering Strait Tuesday morning as a 996 mb low
and the north of the Arctic Coast by late Tuesday. A 1002 mb low
25 NM northwest of St Lawrence Island Tuesday morning will weaken
as it moves over St Lawrence Island by Wednesday morning. Weak
troughing will persist over the Eastern Bering Tuesday.

Models...
The 14/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and
surface obs and are continuing the trend of better agreement in
the short term with the overall synoptic pattern. Models are
better clustered in both placement and strength, leading to a bit
more confidence in wind and precip forecast for the West Coast and
Western Interior. That being said there is still differences in
wind speeds with the Bering low Monday and Tuesday, primarily over
the Y-K Delta and north to the Seward Peninsula. Deterministic GFS
is very robust with winds in this area, while the NAM is a bit
lighter and the Canadian still a bit lighter.  Puzzled
over exactly how strong the wind and wind gusts were going to be
for the southern Seward Peninsula and Norton Sound area as that
was going to be the deciding factor for winter weather advisory or
winter storm warning issuance. After examining ensembles and
considering the deterministic models, kept wind gusts for these
two areas below 60 mph. Used the inherited forecast as a base and
blend in the Canadian and NAM for the West Coast winds as well as
NAM and NAMNest for the winds in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges.
Nudged to AKSREF for pops to account for some higher pops for the
West Coast and Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A low moving northeast off the Chukotsk Peninsula will drag a
front across the region into Monday, bringing another round of
snow, blowing snow, and gusty winds, especially to the Northwest
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range. South to southwest winds increase
to 20 to 35 mph for the western and northwest Arctic coast with
gusts to 50 near Point Hope and Cape Lisburne. South winds of 15
to 25 mph anticipated Monday for Utqiagvik. These winds combined
with falling snow will produce areas of blowing snow, reducing
visibility to one half mile or less at times, visibility will be
reduced to a quarter mile or less at times near Point Hope.
Further east, drier conditions are expected and south to southwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph will prevail. In the Brooks Range,
southerly flow ramps up Monday into Tuesday with sustained winds
of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 50 mph. As southerly flow
becomes established temperatures trend upwards, with highs in the
20s and 30s Monday and Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong southerly winds, snow, and blowing snow begin to develop
this  afternoon and continue into Monday as a low pressure system
moves out of Russia and impacts St Lawrence Island, the Bering
Strait, Chukchi Sea Coast, and the Noatak Valley. Gusts of 30 to
50 mph are The strongest winds and lowest visibility are expected
in the Bering Strait and near Red Dog and Kivalina from tonight
into Monday. Another low moving across the Bering Monday and north
along the West Coast through Tuesday will bring yet another round
of strong winds, snow, blowing snow, and a rain snow mix. Strong
southerly wind gusts develop from the Seward Peninsula south with
gusts of 30 to 50 mph. Snow totals from this afternoon through
Tuesday night range from 3 to 5 inches in the Y-K Delta to 5 to 7
inches on the southern Seward Peninsula coast to 6 to 12 inches
from Noatak to Red Dog Mine.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Pretty quiet across the Central and Eastern Interior the next
couple of days. A front moving out of eastern Russia may clip
the northern half of the Interior tonight into early Monday
morning with most snow remaining north of Beaver. Snow
accumulations tonight through Monday generally two inches or less.
West to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph expected over the
Interior summits through Tuesday. Southerly Chinook flow develops
Monday in the Alaska Range with gusts up to 50 mph expected at
this time. There is some model disagreement with the strength of
the Chinook at this time, so winds may be higher. Temperatures
trend upwards this week with highs in the upper 30s north to lower
to mid 50s by Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...An Arctic low remains in place in the
high Arctic this week while an upper level ridge axis becomes
situated over the Eastern Interior and the Yukon. An upper level
low develops over the Gulf of Anadyr with troughing extending
south of the Aleutians. This low lifts northeast through the
Bering Strait Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Sea levels 2 to 4 feet
above normal along the West Coast Monday into Tuesday could cause
water to push on top of the ice near shore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-813-852-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$