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474
FXAK67 PAJK 071257
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
457 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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Showers set to continue through most of Tuesday
before a gale force front brings widespread stratiform
precipitation with more moderate rainfall rates at times. Rainfall
totals remain modest with some light responses expected from
smaller waterways and the more `flashy` streams of the panhandle.
The front approaching tonight will feature 12 hour totals ranging
from 0.2 inches over the far northern inner channels to 0.8 inches
over the central southern inner channels. With mild to cool
temperatures continuing, precipitation is expected to be rain with
the lone exception being the Klondike Highway near White Pass which
could see some wet snow of around 1.5 inches Tuesday night.

Winds over land and the inner channels will begin light but
continue to pick up through the day as the front approaches.
Breezy conditions over land will develop by Tuesday night with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Areas more likely to see higher gusts
include the southern and central outer coast, south of Frederick
Sound, and downtown Juneau and Douglas.

.LONG TERM...
The gale force system that entered the panhandle on
Tuesday will continue to sweep N through the day Wednesday,
bringing with it rain and blustery conditions across the
panhandle. In its wake on Wednesday, onshore flow will prevail,
maintaining continued chances of precipitation. Another gale force
system - this one more of a rain-producer than a wind-maker, will
move into the panhandle late on Wednesday. The primary center of
circulation for this low is further W in the Gulf, and so
anticipate that the strongest winds will largely stay onshore. The
associated plume of moisture will move in force through the N
panhandle, centered along the NE Gulf Coast and the Yakutat area,
though anticipate that the Icy Strait Corridor will see
respectable precipitation totals. Up to 2-3" of rain are
anticipated along the NE Gulf Coast, with lower totals elsewhere
in conjunction with this system. The plume of moisture moves W
through Thursday, weakening substantially in the process, before
largely falling apart as it approaches the southern panhandle.
Lingering chances of precipitation will last after the system
departs, before a potential break in the rain during the latter
half of Friday and through much of Saturday across a large part of
the area. This is not yet set in stone - there remains some
disagreement in ensembles. Another system is likely to arrive for
the latter half of the week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Variable flight conditions bouncing between VFR and
MVFR across the panhandle this morning as widespread rain showers
move through the area, with isolated gusts up to 20kts for PAGY
and PAHN. Rain showers will continue through the TAF period with
slow deteriorate down to consistent MVFR conditions as a system
approaches the area. As the front pushes inland, anticipate
sustained winds 15-25kts with gusts up to 35kts. In addition,
southeasterly wind shear will be possible around 2000ft for
majority of southeast TAF sites after 00z this afternoon through
tonight.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Marine winds increasing to 25 kts Tuesday morning,
further increasing to 35-40 kt gales late in the day Tuesday.
Strongest winds will be over the eastern Gulf, but areas of gale
force winds will also develop over some of the inner channels with
the most extensive being over Clarence Strait. Seas building to
4-7 ft on the inside and as much as 16 ft on the outside in
advance of frontal passage. Seas on the outside dominated by wind
wave with long period swell making up slightly more than half of
the combined seas.
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&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ327.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ329.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-035-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>034-053-651-652.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...NM

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