Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
571 FXAK67 PAJK 281249 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 449 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Chances of precipitation linger through the day as the impacts of a low located in the eastern Gulf of AK continue to be felt. Satellite and radar imagery depict the associated frontal bands currently traversing the panhandle as of the time of writing. The greatest chances for precip will be in the N half of the panhandle, as the southern half of the area enjoys something of a respite Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening as what little dynamic support there is consolidates further north. Chances for precip will somewhat increase across the S panhandle late Sunday night as said dynamics shift southward along with the departing low but do not expect any significant precip totals before the low departs entirely. Drier weather will largely prevail on Monday. Some fog is possible across parts of the area Sunday night into Monday morning, especially across the S half of the panhandle. Only minimal changes were made to the forecast. Made some adjustments to temperatures to reflect the impact of some breaks in the cloud deck through the day on Sunday, along with some minor changes to the wind grids. Overall, the forecast remains largely on track. .LONG TERM.../ Monday to Thursday night / The surface low in the southeast gulf of Alaska will move south-southeast towards the Pacific Northwest coastal area by Late Monday night, leaving a weak ridge in place over the gulf and into the panhandle as and area of lower pressure persist over the Canadian interior from the Yukon Territory to Central British Columbia and this situation holding through Tuesday. Another short wave running along the southern side of the gulf and will spin up a weak low ( about 1010 mb at present solutions ) and this may spread some rain to the southern portion of the panhandle, however consistency between model solutions have forecast trending towards ensemble solutions and thus a middle of the road forecast at present. Thus mid week is looking to be dry for the panhandle. && .AVIATION...A low located over the eastern gulf will continue to influence the flying weather across SE AK for the first half of the TAF period. Most places are reporting VFR conditions but some are reporting MVFR conditions. With the low being close to the coast, some LLWS is possible along the outer coast during the day. The likelihood of LLWS is expected to go down throughout the day as the low moves away from the coast. Otherwise, showers are expected to continue during the start of the TAF period before decreasing. Some of these showers could bring lowered VIS and CIGs during heavier periods of precipitation. && .MARINE...A gale force low will drift southward through the day on Sunday. While gales will be short lived, mostly along the NE quadrant of the low, widespread 30-35 knot winds will continue through the afternoon and evening for the gulf waters. A surge of southerly winds will race up the southern panhandle through Sunday morning before weakening as they approach the icy Strait corridor. In their wake, the primary flow transitions back to Northerlies. Sunday night will see winds on a diminishing trend, and by Monday, expect most of the inner channels to be around 5 - 10 kt, barring sea breeze impacts in the usual areas, with 15 kt winds or higher largely restricted to the outer coastal waters. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-663-664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...SF Marine...AP/GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau