Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260143
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
943 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through tonight under the influence of
high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Low pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture through
the upcoming holiday weekend, mainly in the form of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM EDT Friday...

Made a few tweaks to dew points and cloud cover. Delayed
increasing clouds unti later tonight per current satellite
imagery. Otherwise, no changes needed to afternoon forecast.

Previous Discussion...High pressure has shifted a bit further
offshore this afternoon allowing a return of SSW flow over the
local area and warmer temps. Other than scattered CU in parts of
the area this afternoon, the weather is otherwise quiet with
all shower activity relegated to the Carolinas and the mountains
of SW VA. Little change is expected in the weather tonight with
the high offshore and light SSW winds in place. Mainly clear
with lows in the 60s to around 70. Higher dew pts and SW flow
should mostly preclude fog formation early Saturday morning.
However, it cannot be completely ruled out for locations such as
PHF/AKQ/ECG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be
our predominate weather pattern through Memorial Day. This will
result in a continued increase in humidity locally through
Sunday, due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a
mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday. By Monday there are indications that a little
deeper feed of sub-tropical moisture will make a run at
central/eastern NC and perhaps far southern portions of VA.
While locally heavy rain will be possible with the strongest
tstms Sat/Sun (PWs 1.75-2.00"), the best opportunity for
widespread moderate/heavy downpours and potential flooding
should hold off until Monday for the aforementioned areas as a
more pronounced area of sub-tropical moisture (PWs increasing
to 2.0-2.3") arrives. As far as PoPs go, will carry high chc to
likely (50-60%) along/west of a line from EMV-XSA-CGE Sat aftn,
lowering to slight chc (~20%) for coastal NE NC. Similar PoPs
Sunday but with highest PoPs oriented a bit more N/NE. High
chc/likely PoPs (50-65%) along/north of a line from FVX-FYJ-WAL,
lowering to slight chc (~20%) over the northern OBX. By Monday,
will generally have chc PoPs everywhere (30-50%), but likely
PoPs (55-65%) along/south of VA Hwy 58.

Temps will remain warm Sat/Sun with highs generally in the
mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s immediate coast. A bit
cooler Monday with increased cloud cover and pcpn chances. Highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

This period to be governed by the moisture and remnant low track of
Sub-tropical Storm Alberto. After stalling across the Gulf States
Mon, the system is progged to drift slowly ne into the TN valley
Tue/Wed with the remnant low pushing ne along or just east of the
Applach mts Thu/Fri.

Kept low chc pops (20-40%) across the region Mon nite thru Tues nite
then increased to high chc pops (40-50%) Wed thru Fri. Highs Tues
mid-upr 80s, low-mid 80s Wed/Thu/Fri. Lows mid 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions anticipated through the 00Z TAF period. Light
S winds overnight will increase and become a bit gusty on
Saturday, but gusts should remain in the 15-20 kt range. Patchy
fog (MVFR VSBY?) is possible at KPHF/KECG early Saturday
morning, but confidence is low, with most guidance suggesting
potential is a bit better in the Piedmont. However, with dew
points increasing and light winds, it cannot be ruled out.

OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday
weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each
afternoon/evening from Sat-Mon. Periodic flight restrictions
will be possible in/around tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

No flags as SW winds around the Bermuda high dominate through the
holiday weekend. Expect some south channeling at times across
the Ches Bay, otw winds aob 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft
waves.

Flow becomes more SE by mid week in advance of Alberto`s remnant
low, the SW behind the lows departure. Speeds below SCA levels.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

South channeling up the Ches Bay will likely have levels
topping out just below minor flooding at Bishops Head. Thus,
went ahead and issued a coastal flood statement for this
evening`s high tide there.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

* RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/24 is 10.25" which now
  ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record
  of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880).

* SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/24 is 8.63" which
  already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38"
  in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDM/WRS
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...


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