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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area for later today through
Tuesday morning, then slides off the coast by Tuesday evening. A
cold front will swing across the region on Wednesday, with high
pressure building from the eastern Great Lakes eastward to off
the New England coast Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Early this morning, sfc low pressure has moved well off the Mid
Atlc and SE coast. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure was centered
over the srn Plains into the Middle MS Valley. The sky cover
ranged from mostly clear to mostly cloudy across the region.
Temps ranged from the upper 30s to lower 50s.

Low pressure will move farther out to sea during today, as sfc
high pressure builds into the area from the WSW. The sky will
become sunny to partly sunny from NW to SE during today, as N
winds usher drier air (dew pts in the upper 20s to mid 30s)
into the region. Warmer with highs ranging from the mid 60s well
inland, to the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast.

With low dew pts continuing and sfc high pressure becoming
centered over the local area tonight, expect a clear sky, light
winds, and good radiational cooling conditions. Forecast lows
will be in the mid to upper 30s over much of the CWA, with
localized lower 30s possible. Areas of frost will be likely
over inland/Piedmont counties of VA, and at least Northampton
and Hertford counties of NE NC. Thus, have issued a Frost
Advisory for these locations from very late tonight into Tue
morning (3am-8am). Patchy frost may be possible in a few
immediate adjacent counties in VA and NE NC also. Otherwise,
lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Turning warmer on the backside of the sfc high for Tue, with a
light southerly flow by aftn. Mainly sunny with highs in the
lower 70s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid to upper 60s at the
coast. Increasing clouds Tue night in advance of another cold
front. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The system/cold front
on Wed will be northern stream, with low level flow turning
westerly rather quickly. As such, moisture will be limited, and
PoPs will only be 20-30% N and ~15% S. It will be well mixed and
warmer, with highs into the mid to upper 70s (except lower 70s
N/NW and over the Lower MD/VA ern shore). The front pushes SSE
of the area Wed night, with sfc high pressure building eastward
across the Great Lakes. Mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows
ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure will build from the eastern Great Lakes eastward
to off the New England coast Thu through Fri. Mostly sunny on
Thu with highs ranging through the 60s. Clear/mostly clear Thu
night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s (with
patchy frost possible). The high will slide off to the NE or E
on Fri, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to
around 70F. Partly to mostly cloudy Fri night with lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. There could be isolated showers across
the N by Sat morning. There will be at least a low chc for
showers on Sat, as the next system lifts ENE through the Great
Lakes/upper midwest. PoPs are only 20-30% for now with highs Sat
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. After that, turning much warmer
by Sunday as an upper level ridge amplifies across the ern
CONUS. Highs Sunday into the 80s for most of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Low pressure was continuing to move farther out to sea early
this morning, leaving mostly VFR SC and AC CIGs at ORF and ECG.
Otherwise, Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites
from this morning into Tue morning, as just SCT-OVC high and
mid level clouds will persist through this aftn, before mainly
SKC this evening into Tue morning. High pressure will build into
and over the region later today through Tue.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tue into Tue night. There
is a minimal chance for showers Wed, but conditions will primarily
stay VFR. Dry/VFR conditions Thu and Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Latest obs/buoy reports showing NNE winds of 10-20 kt over the
local waters, highest over the Chesapeake Bay as of 08z. ~1020+
mb surface high pressure continues to build to the west, as
deepening ~1003mb sfc low pressure slowly pushes farther
offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this morning. Waves in
the bay are 2-3 ft, except 3-5 ft at the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Seas have begun to build slightly with the renewed surge of
cold air advection, averaging 3-4 ft N, 4-6 ft S, and SCA flags
remain flying for coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

Meanwhile, SCA remains in effect for the bay, Currituck Sound
and lower James River for the latest surge of cool air advection.
Winds have not yet increased in the lower James and Sound as of
this writing, but are expected to increase to low-end SCA
thresholds over the course of the next couple of hours. Winds
and elevated seas should slowly start to ease by late
morning/afternoon, as high pressure builds further into the
region. This should also allow winds to diminish as the pressure
gradient slackens considerably by this afternoon and evening.

Secondary low pressure deepens along the stalled front well
offshore late Tuesday and may keep some enhanced 8-10 second
E-SE swell moving toward the coast, potentially necessitating
another round of SCA for all/most of the coastal waters Tue
night. Meanwhile, a mainly dry cold front approaches from the
west late Tuesday into Wednesday. A re-tightening of the surface
pressure gradient results in increasing SW winds to around 15
kt, though some low-end SCA may also be needed in the Bay and
lower James River. The front moves through the region Wednesday
night into early Thursday, with increasing N winds and potential
for SCA headlines in its wake.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012-013.
VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-079>083-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR