Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211041 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 641 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend as high pressure is centered from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic region. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1032 mb broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. The high continues to extend down into the Mid Atlc region today, leading to another dry day with a sunny sky following some early morning patchy frost. High temps in the mid 60s most areas except near the coast (upr 50s) where sea breezes may develop this aftn. For tonight...the fa remains under the influence of sfc high pressure centered off to the north. Some increasing moisture in the WNW flow aloft will allow for increasing clouds and temps to only fall into the low/mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure slides offshore Sunday into Sunday night. This will bring gradually increasing clouds Sunday afternoon and night. Highs Sunday range through the 60s. N or NE winds 10 kt or less Sunday morning veer around to the SE Sunday night, bringing gradually moderating temps. By Monday morning, next weather system currently over the desert southwest will have pushed east toward the Gulf coast region. Models are in general agreement that the trough will gradually dampen, with the closed low opening up as the upper trough traverses the southern tier of states over the weekend, with a weak inverted trough developing over the Southeast into Monday morning. Given the antecedent dry conditions and the slow evolution of this system, have kept Monday dry across the local area, despite increase in cloudiness. May be a few light rain showers possible across the I-85 corridor, but will hold pops at slight chc or less. More clouds than sun over much of the area will keep temps in the mid 60s. Rain chances steadily increase Monday night across the Piedmont, with precip spreading NNE into the area into Tuesday morning. Lows mainly in the upper 40s in the piedmont to low 50s across Se coastal plain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Friday... Rain will move into the area from SSW to NNE during the day on Tuesday as the upper wave and associated sfc low pres push E/NE. 20/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC are in good agreement that the area of light to moderate rain will cover the entire CWA by late afternoon on Tuesday and last through around 12z Wed. Given the agreement between the most recent suite of guidance, have increased PoPs to 60-70% for the entire CWA Tue-early Wed. Due to the rain, high temperatures will be be in the low 60s for the bulk of the CWA on Tuesday. After the sfc low tracks through eastern portions of the CWA Wed AM, the main area of rain will exit the region. A few showers will still be possible during the day, but temperatures should warm to near 70 on Wednesday if the rain exits early enough (this looks more likely in southern parts of the CWA). 12z GFS/CMC track another sfc low/weak cold front through the area Thursday-Friday AM, but ECMWF does not have a rainy solution. Thus, have kept PoPs at or below 40%. Highs around 70/lows between 50-55 expected Thu-Fri. An upper trough amplifies over the eastern US Friday PM into next weekend as sfc low pressure is forecast to deepen over the northeastern US at the same time. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday as well as below average temperatures next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 640 AM EDT Saturday... VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Winds today will remain light at less than 10 kt, genly from the N but will shift onshore to the E/NE near the coast in the aftn. Expect SKC through most of the TAF period for all terminals (some high clouds increasing late). Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Sun, with high pressure over the region. A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing the next chance for flight restrictions and rain.
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&& .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday... A weak cold front is dropping N-S across the marine area early this morning. The wind will become NE and briefly increase to 15-20kt immediately behind the cold front mainly over the Bay/ocean and possibly the lower James. The duration will only be 1-2hrs, so this will be handled with an MWS over the Bay. Waves in the Bay could also increase to 2-3ft. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail over the region today and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. The wind will become sea/bay breeze driven by this aftn, the S/SE 5-10kt tonight, before becoming N Sunday morning then E 10kt by Sunday aftn as high pressure shifts toward New England and low pressure moves into the Deep South. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure moves off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 6-10ft Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in the Bay). Broad low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...LKB/MAS MARINE...AJZ

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