Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231026 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 626 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles across the southeastern states today and tonight. Low pressure moves east from the Mississippi Valley Saturday, then across the Carolinas Saturday night. The low moves offshore Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc high moves into the sern states today while a s/w trof drops se across the region this aftrn. SCT-BKN clouds results in a pt to mstly sunny day. Highs upr 40s ern shore to mid 50s south of I64 along with a nw wind at 10-20 mph. Went lwr the guid on dew point temps this aftrn, especially across the Piedmont where readings will likely drop into the teens given the nw wind flow. This puts relative humidity values in the low- mid 20s during peak heating hrs. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1040mb sfc high ivof Hudson Bay will build into the region tonight in the wake of the upper trough. Mstly clr / cold with lows from the upr 20s nw to mid 30s se. The high remains anchored north of the region Sat. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the Miss Valley toward the Tenn Valley with an extension of the high nosing down the Mid Atlntc coast. Drier air associated with the high progged to hold off pcpn through 21Z. Still noting some timing differences wrt the onset of pcpn when models show enuf support for some pcpn to break out across the wrn zones. Will carry chc pops btwn 18-21Z across wrn most zones then extend the chc pops farther east 21Z-00Z. Likely pops swrn most zones late. Pcpn type to be mostly in liquid form but some mixing is psbl ivof AVC by sunset. Highs 45-50, but falling into the upr 30s to nr 40 across the west once the pcpn arrives. Low pressure progged to track across the srn Carolinas Sat night, a bit farther south than previous forecasts. Models struggling to determine just how far north the pcpn gets due to the drier air in place from the high to the north. The NAM is an outlier and followed more of a GFS/ECMWF soln with this forecast package. A rather sharp QPF cutoff is noted on where significant pcpn occurs. Another challenge will be sfc temps as readings will remain aoa freezing for most of the evening when most of the pcpn is expected to fall. The exception here being the extreme sw zones ivof fvx-avc where pcpn should quickly go over to snow during the hvyst pcpn intensity. Otw, expect that a rain/snow mix will occur a bit later into the evening hrs before going over to snow. In a nutshell, expect any snow accumls will be limited to the wrn piedmont (south of I64 and west of I95). Thus, have cut back accumls even further with less than an inch except a 1-2 inch swath from near FVX-AVC. No headlines as this appears to be an advsry level event at most across xtreme swrn zones Sat night. Pops range from categorical across the sw to nothing across the ne. Pcpn begins to taper off across the north after midnight as the support for any sgnfcnt pcpn pushes south into the Carolinas. No measurable QPF expected north of I64 with up to 1/2 in ivof AVC. Lows from the upr 20s NW to mid 30s se. Pcpn quickly ends across the se Sun morning as high pressure builds into the area from the north. Skies bcmg mstly sunny but remaining chilly due to a brisk ne wind. Highs in the mid 40s. Mstly clr and cold Sun night. Lows mid 20s nw to upr 30s se.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Long term forecast period characterized by gradually warming and moderating temperatures, courtesy of building mid-level ridging over the eastern third of the conus. The ridge will build quickly early next week, then linger over the region through much of the mid to late week period, in between broad upper level troughs lingering over the intermountain west and just north of Bermuda. Resultant surface high pressure remains pinned nearly in place along the eastern seaboard Late Tuesday through Thursday, bringing only some intermittent clouds and decidedly more tranquil sensible wx. Next chance of rain comes with a quick moving northern stream system late next week. Below normal temperatures to begin the period (highs in the u40s along the coast to low 50s inland on Monday) warm back to normal by midweek, and just above normal (60s to near 70 inland, highs in the 50s to near 60 along the coast) by late week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure builds across the sern states. Another s/w trof moves across the area producing sct-bkn CU during peak heating hrs. Nw winds gust btwn 15-20 kts. Only sct clouds expected tonight. Outlook: Low pressure approaches from the W Saturday and pushes across the Carolinas Saturday night. This could produce flight restrictions with a mix of rain and snow at PHF/ORF/ECG and light snow at RIC. High pressure becomes anchored over New England, with VFR conditions expected from Monday through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles as winds and seas have diminished below SCA criteria. NW winds over the Bay may continue to gust in excess of 20 knots after sunrise, thus extended the SCA until 10 am. Also went ahead and extended the SCA over the southern coastal waters into the afternoon as seas may linger around 5 feet. Expect a gradual diminishing trend in winds and seas this morning as low pressure moves up into the northern Atlantic waters. Winds will likely increase to 15-20 knots over the Bay after sunset, leading to the potential for another round of SCAs overnight. Low pressure passes south of the waters tomorrow into Sunday, but poor mixing will keep any SCA potential limited. Winds and seas increase Sunday as low pressure deepens off the coast, thus another round of SCAs will likely be needed Sunday into early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.