Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270743 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 343 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week, transporting moisture into the local area. A weak frontal boundary will stall across the Delmarva this afternoon into Monday before dissipating over the region. Overall, unsettled conditions are expected to prevail over the next several days.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure well off the Carolina coast with Subtropical Storm Alberto over the eastern GOMEX. Aloft, there is weak SW flow over the Mid Atlc with a weak ridge off the Southeast coast. After some lingering rain early this morning, similar overall pattern as yesterday, with decent moisture profiles in conjunction with weak shortwave energy aloft and a backdoor front near the DELMARVA leading to likely shras/tstms later today/tonight especially over northern areas. Main threat with any tstms is still heavy rain due to fairly weak steering flow and aforementioned moisture/high PW...included locally heavy rainfall wording. High temps in the mid/upr 80s. Shras/tstms may last through the evening hrs (especially over northern areas) before slowly diminishing overnight. Low temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be the predominate weather pattern early this week. The aforementioned backdoor front will lift back north as a warm front Mon. Increasing PW`s (arnd 2 inches) along with a deep feed of Atlantic/GOM moisture keeps the threat of convection going through the period. Highest pops are across North Carolina (categorical Mon then likely Tue), closer to the moisture feed. It is too early to consider any flash flood watches, but something to consider over the next couple days. Highs Mon in the upr 70s-lwr 80s. Highs Tue in the low-mid 80s. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Medium range guidance is in general agreement through the middle of next week but modestly diverges with the position/timing of precipitation over the area into next weekend. What is certain is that Subtropical Storm Alberto, whose center of lowest pressure remains well to our west, will help create a southerly flow regime and efficient moisture transport for the middle-end of the week. Wednesday morning will start dry in the northern half, while southern VA and northern NC start to tap into increasing moisture. Showers are possible in the southern half of the area, spreading northward through the day on Wednesday. A heavier corridor of rainfall over the west was being suggested by the 06z GFS, but has since shifted that "bulls eye" further to the south. Still expect heavier pockets of wet weather, regardless of the uncertainty in exact placement. Rain will come in waves, much like we experienced the past few weeks. Timing will be best described as periods of showers and a few thunderstorms...continuing through much of the day Thursday. The Canadian model was discounted, due to its overdone "dry slotting" that the GFS/EURO are not depicting during this package. The 12z GFS aligns with the 00z EURO on Friday, indicating most areas could receive a break from the continued rain chances. Beyond that, Saturday is either soggy or sunny, depending on which model you choose to believe. GEFS/EPS ensembles break down coastal ridging, leading to more confidence in a wetter forecast. The GFS insists that a cold front will setup and sweep through the CWA during the afternoon. This would allow for convection to develop out ahead...but the EURO suggests the front would already be moving over the eastern shore by Saturday morning, slashing any opportunity for rain. Temperatures inland in the mid 80s should do it for most afternoons, with the exception of Friday. Additional sunshine and a drier day would edge most places into the upper 80s. Coastal regions will see low 80s for much of the middle-end of the week, again with Friday potentially being a bit warmer. Overnight lows will run some 5-8 degrees above normals for most of the area, hovering in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... VFR outside of any showers/tstms, with the coverage not high enough to include any prevailing showers/tstms except at KSBY. Some lowering of cigs expected early this morning and at least MVFR flight restrictions expected at KSBY/KRIC and possibly KPHF early today. Genly dry conditions expected later this morning through midday with another round of aftn/evening showers/tstms possible (highest chances north and lowest over the south). Winds will be from the SW at 10-15 kt, though a backdoor cold front will not be too far from KSBY so the winds may shift to the SE by the end of the TAF period there, where lowering cigs are also expected. OUTLOOK... Sct convection expected through most of next week as a persistent pattern of moisture continues to flow north from the deep south. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible in/around tstms. && .MARINE... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... No headlines UFN. SSW winds around Bermuda hi pres avg aob 15 kt or less into Mon w/ seas 2-3 ft w/ 1-2 ft waves. Winds become SE or E for Mon night into Wed night w/ speeds remaining mainly aob 15 kt, seas 2-4 ft w/ 1-2 ft waves. SCT tstms could be accompanied by gusty winds through mid week. && .CLIMATE...
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As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 10.27" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906).
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...LKB/MAS MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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