Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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015 FXUS61 KAKQ 261918 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure quickly tracks northeast from the Deep South tonight, then crosses the local area Friday morning. Dry weather is on tap for Saturday and Sunday, although a cold front passing Saturday night may cause a few showers. Warmer weather arrives next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... Weak high pressure traversing the area this afternoon will slide offshore this evening. Meanwhile, low pressure currently over northern AL will quickly track northward tonight. Clouds have thinned so far today allowing for a partly to mostly sunny sky. However, do anticipate clouds to be on the increase from S to N by this evening and overnight as the aforementioned low begins to lift NE from the Deep South. Will continue to watch the seabreeze boundary across eastern NC, which so far has not generated any isold shwrs, to see if a stray shower eventually is able to track into NE NC (~20% PoPs remain). For tonight, a quick increase in PoPs is expected this evening, then especially after 06z as the low enters the FA from the SW. Have chc PoPs 30-50% across the Piedmont thru 03z, then spreading east to the I-95 corridor by 06z when PoPs will increase to 50-90% across the Piedmont. After 06z, likely to categorical PoPs (60-100%) spread across the entire area, highest across the NW half of the FA. Lows tonight from the nr 50 NW to the upper 50 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... Keeping PoPs 50-75% NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 30-40% far SW as the low reaches the Delmarva. Models show ribbon of CAPE (to 500-750 J/KG) moving across the FA late tonight/Fri morning w/ period of enhanced UVM. Have kept a SLGT CHC of tstms from about 06Z- 18Z/26. Locally heavy rain is possible. The low pressure area lifts to the NE of the local area Friday afternoon, but with an attendant cold front nearby eastern VA that pushes offshore by 00z Sat. This will necessitate keeping 20-30% (for SHRAS/tstms) over the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy Fri morning, then VRB clouds-becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Total QPF ranging from the 0.1-0.2" in SE VA/NE NC to 0.50-1.25" across the NW. Highs Friday from the upr 60s N-NW and at the coast to the mid/upr 70s central/southern locales. Improved conditions Fri night and Sat, although do expect a weak cold front to approach from the NW late Sat afternoon. Partly to mostly clear during this time. Lows Fri night from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly in the mid/upr 70s, except upr 60s-low 70s at the beaches. A potent upper low meanders across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and will force the weak cold front through the local area. Models now more bullish with indicating the possibility of showers with the fropa Saturday night. Thus, have added 20-30% PoPs for all but the far SW FA. Lows Saturday night from the low 40s NW to the low 50s SE. High pressure arrives for Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Cooler with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Thursday... Weak cold front crosses the local area Sat evening...possibly accompanied by ISOLD SHRAS...esp N and NE locales. Dry/cooler and breezy Sun. After that...a period of delightful spring weather on tap early next week as hi pres sets up over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed. Expecting a significant warming trend Mon-Wed. Lows Sat/Sun nights near 40 NW to near 50 SE. Highs Sun in the 60s, mid 60s-lwr 70s Mon. Lows Mon night mid 40s NW to lwr 50s SE. Highs Tues 75-80F. Lows Tues night in the 50s. Highs Wed upr 70s-lwr 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions expected today though BKN clouds 5-10 kft will spread into the region from the WSW late this afternoon. The next low pressure system will impact the region tonight into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS (at least times of low end MVFR) and SHRAS (low prob for ISOLD/SCT tstms). Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Sun.
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&& .MARINE... As of 420 AM EDT Thursday... SCA Headlines remain in effect until 7 pm or 10 pm this evening for the coastal waters, due to lingering long period E/SE swell of 10 seconds. Seas 5-7 ft early this morning, will subside to 3 to 4 ft tonight. Early this morning, one low pressure area was over New England, with weak high pressure cntrd over the upper midwest. Another low pressure area was over the middle/lower MS valley. NW winds 5-15 kt this morning, will shift to the SE or S arnd 10 kt or less during the mid/late aftn hrs into this evening, as weak sfc high pressure builds in fm the NNW. The next low pressure area will affect the waters tonight thru Fri, as it tracks fm the SE U.S. thru the local area on Fri, and off to the NE by Fri night. Another cold front crosses the waters Sat night, increasing winds close to SCA levels, then diminishing Sun as high pressure returns. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...LKB/TMG

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