Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192340 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 740 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push out to sea tonight. High pressure will build into and over the region late tonight into Sunday. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast States northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday... Late this aftn, a cold front was moving SE of the NE NC coast, while sfc high pressure was cntrd over the upper midwest. The cold front will push out to sea tonight, while high pressure starts to build twd the area fm the NNW. Gusty NW or N winds will diminish during this evening/early tonight, and the sky will become clear. Should be too dry for frost, but temps are expected to bottom out near 32F over portions of the Piedmont, as winds become light in those areas. Therefore, will have a Freeze warning for NW counties. Low temps will be in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday... Dry/cool wx will prevail on Fri, as low pressure slowly exits into the nrn Atlc, and high pressure gradually builds in fm the NNW. Still hanging on to a breezy NNW wind near the coast. Sunny with highs ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dry wx continues Fri night thru Sun, as sfc high pressure builds down over the region. Clear and cold Fri night with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to arnd 40. Sunny or mostly sunny on Sat with N or NE winds 10 kt or less, and highs ranging fm the upper 50s/near 60 at the coast, to the lower to mid 60s inland/Piedmont. Mostly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold Sat night, with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Partly sunny on Sun with highs mainly ranging thru the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 500 PM EDT Wednesday... The medium range period will begin with a slow moving upper low tracking east from the lower MS Valley to the TN Valley Sun night through early Tue. Upper ridging will be in place across the mid-Atlc through mon night with strong sfc high pressure centered over the NE CONUS, ridging south to off the Delmarva. While some mid/high clouds may affect the local area Sun night/Mon, conditions should remain dry with the possible exception of the far SW counties where a 20% PoP will be maintained Mon aftn/Mon evening. Expect below average temperatures with lows Sun night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Mon 60-65 F most places. By Tue, consensus between the 19/12Z models is for the upper low to slowly weaken to an open wave while moving into the SE CONUS/southern Appalachians. Sfc low pressure along the Gulf coast is progged to move NE up through the SE coastal plain while sfc high pressure retreats well off the NE/mid-Atlc coasts. Still some model timing and strength differences so with the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% to 50% for the bulk of the CWA, genly highest Tue and Tue night. Mainly cloudy so not as cold Mon night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and highs Tue mid 60s SE to around 60 NW (potentially could be cooler than this if it rains all day). Will keep 30-40% chance showers Wed and 20% thu as the eventual evolution of the sfc low shows quite a bit of disagreement amongst the models by this timeframe. Partly/mostly cloudy Wed and thu with highs warming a bit to 65-70 F and lows mainly 50-55 F. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR through the 00Z TAF Period. Northwest winds will slowly diminish overnight tonight as high pressure builds back into the region. Mainly clear skies are anticipated through the TAF period. NNW winds around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots anticipated during the day Friday. Outlook: VFR conditions will then continue late Fri aftn through Sun, as high pressure builds down over the region. A disturbance approaches the region late Monday bringing the next chance for sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Latest weather analysis reveals low pressure now oriented just offshore of the Outer Banks at 18z. The attendant surface cold front now offshore, extending south into the coastal Carolinas. Obs and buoy reports indicating post-frontal surge of NNW winds just pushing across northern portions of the waters this afternoon. Convective gusts to ~40 kt possible with initial surge, quickly leveling off to WNW 15-25kt in post-frontal CAA. Winds then become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for the Bay/ocean. Seas build to 4-6ft later this aftn into tonight, while waves in the Bay remain ~2ft this afternoon, increasing to 3-4ft tonight. Current SCA flags will remain as is, but there will be a few hours of sub- SCA conditions across the southern waters this afternoon before CAA makes it farther south. High pressure builds in from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary surge is expected Friday night, but this surge should generally be sub- SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 445 PM EDT Thursday... Due to onshore N to NE flow along the coast of SE VA, have removed Norfolk/Va Beach and the VA eastern shore from the Fire Danger Statement (RH values are genly 40-60% with temperatures only in the 50s). Elsewhere, NW winds will gust to 25-35 mph into early this evening behind a cold front along with RH Values to 25-35%. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062- 064-067>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MAM FIRE WEATHER...

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