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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front drops through the area this evening keeping a
chance for scattered rain showers in the forecast. Strong high
pressure then builds east from the Great Lakes region on Thursday
before shifting offshore to end the week. After a couple of cooler
days, expect a significant warming trend next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface analysis shows that the weak cold front has very slowly
dropped into the northwest portions of our area early this
afternoon. It is expected to continue its gradual journey
through the rest of the area, eventually clearing the CWA during
the early morning hours. Current radar shows a band of light
rain showers stretching from Virginia Beach almost all the way
back to Charlotte, NC. These showers will continue to move
southward as well through the afternoon. Hi-res guidance
indicates isolated showers developing across central Virginia
after 5/6pm this evening and moving off to the east/southeast.
Coverage should remain limited, so kept a slight chance of an
isolated shower in the forecast mainly for Richmond and points
east/southeast through the evening. Once the front pushes
through, the rain chances will come to an end. Some breaks in
the clouds will form, though still anticipating cloud cover to
stick around as onshore flow sets in. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the mid to upper 50s inland with low 50s near the
coast and across far NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region on
Thursday and extends across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Partly
cloudy skies are expected with cooler high temperatures thanks to
onshore flow. Forecast has upper 50s to lower 60s across the east
and northeast, with mid to upper 60s across the southwest. Lows
Thursday night will be in the lower 40s, with northern areas
dropping to around 40 degrees. Inland spots of the Maryland
Eastern Shore may see upper 30s by Friday morning. This could
result in some patchy frost across these locations. The high
slides just offshore of New England on Friday keeping onshore
flow ongoing. Another cool day will be on tap with highs very
similar to Thursday. It will be a little bit milder Friday night
as the airmass modifies along that persistent onshore flow,
with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A high amplitude ridge axis will be overhead on Saturday, with
surface high pressure settling in just off the New England coast. A
low pressure center will weaken as it drifts northward across
Minnesota, sending a warm front across the Ohio River Valley and
into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. It may extend just
far enough south to give us a very slight chance of light rain
showers, particularly across the north and northwest section of the
CWA. Elsewhere, expect mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer
temperatures, topping out around 70 degrees inland.

The upper ridge remains in place on Sunday. Skies will become partly
cloudy as temperatures warm rapidly. Expecting highs to reach 80
degrees to start off the new week. The ridge begins to break down a
bit later Monday as the axis shifts offshore. Temperatures will warm
even more as southwesterly flow enhances over the area. High temps
Monday are forecast to hit the mid 80s for most locations. A cold
front may push through later Tuesday giving us our next chance of
rain, however, models disagree on its strength and precise timing.
For now, kept temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as a late day
frontal passage will allow for peak heating to occur. Kept a slight
chance of rain/storms for the area in the afternoon. Expect low
temperatures to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mid to high level cloud cover continues to stream in across the
area ahead of a passing weak cold front. Areas from FVX-RIC-SBY
northward are seeing breaks in the clouds form with SCT060
cumulus developing, with SE locations still socked in with
SCT/BKN070-100 CIGs. A band of-SHRA remains along the VA/NC line,
stretching from ORF/PHF back to GSO. These showers will persist
through 22Z as they continue to shift southward. There may be
some isolated SHRA developing across RIC/PHF/ORF between
22Z-04Z, though flight conditions should remain VFR throughout
the period as the showers will be fairly light. Rain chances end
after 06Z.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Can`t rule out a stray shower on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs for the coastal waters have been extended through Thursday
evening. Further extension into Friday is likely due to lingering
5ft+ seas

- Another round of SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay starting
early Thursday morning.

A cold front is located NW of local waters this afternoon with high
pressure suppressed to the south. Ahead of the front, a line of
showers is crossing over the southernmost waters, leading to
occasional gustiness (~20kt). Latest obs show WSW winds at 10-15kt.
Waves are 1-2ft and seas are 4-5ft. Behind the front, winds will
turn to the NE and a relatively brief surge of winds is expected.
Winds increase after 06z. Winds over the bay will reach 15-20kt
early Thursday morning, then diminish to 10-15kt by the afternoon.
Waves will reach 2-4ft (5ft in mouth of bay). Expecting longer
duration and a bit stronger winds (20-25kt) over the coastal waters.
Winds will diminish over coastal waters late Thursday evening, but
will remain onshore through the weekend. Therefore, seas of 5-6ft
will linger, potentially into Friday afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat-Tues. Onshore wind direction
will persist through Saturday with high pressure situated just to
the N of local waters. High pressure gets pushed to the S through
mid-week, allowing winds to turn to the S on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 855 PM EDT Wednesday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight
behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While
widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal
flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance
to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high
tide at Smithfield, VA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...