Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161727 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 127 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves east across the Mid Atlantic region Saturday, then off the coast Saturday night. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, then moves offshore Monday. A complex area of low pressure moves across the region Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Trof that caused the flurries across the lwr MD ern shore has pushed offshore. In its wake, gusty NW wind 20-30 mph are common across the ern shore with temps struggling to get into the 40s. Otw, mstly sunny and breezy (15-20 mph) with highs in the 50s. PVS DSCN: Surface high slides offshore tonight, as the developing system to the west deamplifies and slides across the Mid-Missouri valley toward the midwest overnight. As this happens, the deepening sfc low will slide along the quasi-stationary boundary to the south tonight into Saturday. Tonight will begin clear to mostly clear, with clouds thickening and lowering late, as the front begins to lift back north as a warm front late. Low level moisture aloft overspreads the wrn half of the local area during this same time frame after midnight. This to be mainly in the form of clouds as the lwr levels remain dry thru about 12Z Sat. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Occluding low over the Ohio Valley will send first slug of overrunning moisture across the local area Saturday morning, with additional periods of rain through the day as the low tracks east across the region Sat Aftn and night. Could see a brief wintry mix (rain/sleet/snow) across northern sections at the onset btwn 12Z- 15Z as we wet-bulb up Sat morning. However, most of the pcpn will be in liquid form. First slug of light overrunning moisture slides across the north Saturday morning, with likely pops beginning soonest across the north. Rain chances increase across the south Sat afternoon and night, as the low slides overhead and slides offshore late Sat night. Rain chances taper down from north to south Sat evening into Sun morning. QPF mainly light, with expected rain totals generally on the order of a tenth of an inch or less across the north, and between a tenth and quarter of an inch along and south of US-460. Highs mid 40s ern shore to the mid 50s swrn most zones. Early morning lows Sunday 30-35 far north, mid-upr 30s central and south. High pressure then builds over the area, bringing a dry Sunday. Highs in the mid-upr 40s ern shore, 50-55 west of the bay under a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 12Z/15 GFS and ECMWF models are generally in agreement thru most of the extended period, except the GFS is much stronger/deeper with low pressure and trough late Wed thru Thu. At this time, will continue to lean toward the ECMWF for the fcst. High pressure will be over the area, then slide offshore Sun night into Mon morning, maintaining dry wx. A couple of stronger low pressure areas will then affect the region late Mon into Tue night, bringing likely PoPs (at this time) for rain. One low lifts NE thru TN/KY and twd srn OH, while another low tracks acrs the SE U.S. and off the Mid Atlc coast while intensifying. Decreasing PoPs late Tue night and Wed, as the one low lifts thru ern OH, while the low off the coast starts to shift farther away to the ENE. Lingering slgt chance PoPs Wed night and Thu, with a few flurries or snow showers possible in the NW counties Wed night. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s Mon, range fm the upper 40s far NNW, to the lower 60s SE Tue, range fm the mid 40s to mid 50s Wed, and range fm the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will range thru the 30s Sun night, in the upper 30s to upper 40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, and range thru the 30s Wed night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The trof that caused the sct flurries at SBY has shifted offshore with clrg skies and gusty nw winds behind it. Thus, VFR conditions expected thru the forecast period with mainly clr skies thru abt 12Z Sat. Gusty NW wind 20-30 KTS at SBY with 15-20 KTS across the rest of the TAF sites this aftrn. High/mid level clouds overspread the region Sat morning with a shwr psbl at RIC by the end of the forecast period. Pcpn not expected to get to the coastal sites until Sat aftrn. Outlook: Gradual clearing from north to south, with VFR conditions Sunday as high pressure briefly returns. Another window of flight restrictions by Mon/Tue, as Low pressure approaches from the SW.
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&& .MARINE... A weak cold front settles south of the southern coastal waters this morning. NNW winds behind the front will increase to 10-15 kt be before sunrise, then to 15-25 kt by late this morning into the afternoon. Highest winds will remain north of Cape Henry today, so SCAs will not be required for the the southern coastal waters, Currituck sound and also the Rivers. SCAs will remain in effect for the remaining waters thru 7 pm. High pressure briefly settles into the area tonight and Saturday morning with NW winds around 10 kt becoming light and variable late Saturday. A pair of weak low pressure systems look to pass thru North Carolina late Saturday and Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure remains entrenched across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This should keep the winds NNE AOB 15 kt across the local waters thru Sunday. Light and variable winds on Monday. The next system impacts the area Tuesday/Wednesday of next week when another round of SCA conditions will be likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite rh`s between 20-30% once again today, the winds will be slightly less of an issue today, as pressure gradient slackens a bit. With temps looking slightly cooler as well, we therefore expect that we will be able to hold off on any fire statement today. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent and modest offshore flow will allow water levels to approach -1 ft MLLW along the mid-Atlantic coast during low tide through Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JDM FIRE WEATHER...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.