005
FXUS61 KAKQ 300022
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
822 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and
out to sea on Tuesday, as a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest. The front will cross the area late Tuesday night
through Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected
Thursday and Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend,
as another cold front moves into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 815 PM EDT Monday...

The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper level ridge in
place from the SE US to the eastern Great Lakes, with >1020mb
sfc high pressure centered off the SE US coast. The sky is
mainly clear other than a few high clouds, and temperatures
remain warm, with readings as of 8 PM mostly ranging through the
70s (locally a few places ares still in the lower 80s N of RIC
with 60s along the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). Highs
today were mostly in the mid to upper 80s, falling short of any
record highs (see climate section). For the overnight period,
it will remain dry and mostly clear with a light SW low level
flow. Lows will mostly be from 60-65F, with upper 50s possible
along the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

The sfc high will shift farther off the SE coast and out to sea
Tuesday through Wed. Still very warm on Tue, with a mostly
sunny sky becoming partly sunny, as a weak cold front starts to
approach from the WNW. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid
80s. That front will then gradually push into and across the
region Tue evening through Wed evening. There may be isolated
showers or a tstm Tue evening into Wed morning. But then, the
best chance for showers/tstms (30-54%) will be from late Wed
morning into Wed evening, as the boundary slowly sinks SE
through the area. Lows Tue night in the lower to mid 60s, with
highs on Wed in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The highest PoPs will
be across srn/SE counties where around ~0.25" of rain will be
possible. The rain will end Wed night with dry weather expected
for late Wed night through Thu, as the front pushes SSE of the
area and upper ridge of high pressure builds into/over the
region. Lows will range through the 50s Wed night, with highs on
Thu ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s near the Bay/coast,
to the upper 70s to lower 80s inland/Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure ridge aloft will maintain dry weather Thu night
through Fri. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered over New
England or just offshore, resulting in onshore flow everywhere.
This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland.
Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the
mid 70s near the Bay/coast (coolest along the Atlc beaches of
the Eastern Shore). There may be an isolated shower or tstm Fri
evening/night over WNW counties, as a cold front starts to
approach from the WNW.

A cold front will gradually push into and across the region Sat
into Mon, providing decent chances for showers/tstms. Due to
plenty of cloud cover expected, highs will range through the 70s
into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 00Z/30
TAF period. SSW winds will avg 5-10 kt overnight, with SW winds
10-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt for most of the day Tue.
Increasing high clouds Tue, but remaining VFR.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
into Tue night, with a slight chance of a shower/tstm at
RIC Tue evening. Higher chances (30-50%) of showers or tstms
will be possible Wed into Wed evening, with brief flight
restrictions likely in any tstms. Dry Thu-Fri. A chance for
showers/tstms late Fri night through Sat with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period though some gusts to around 20 kt are possible
at times.

High pressure remains centered off of the Carolinas with an
area of low pressure west of the Great Lakes. This is placing
the region under a persistent southwest flow around 10 to 15
knots. Seas persist around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet offshore),
and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at
the mouth). Southwesterly flow continues overnight and decreases
with the loss of mixing. For Tue southwest winds should
increase a little after daybreak with mixing resulting to 10 to
15 kt with a few higher gusts possible over the Bay and near
shore waters closer to land.

A cold front approaches the waters from the north and northwest
late Tuesday night pushing south past Ocean City and the
Potomac River in the morning reaching the lower Bay and NC
waters later in the afternoon. S to SW winds will increase
slightly ahead of the front (~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to
20 knots over the coastal waters) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Seas increase some due to the stronger S winds, with
seas approaching 4 to 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape
Charles Light. Winds shift to the N and NE behind the front
Wednesday morning and remain around 10 to 15 kt. Generally
onshore flow from the NE then E is expected from late Wednesday
into Friday. Have increased the NE winds a little with this
forecast updated based on the models, but winds remain below
SCA criteria around 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt
possible at times. Another front potentially approaches the
waters later this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

No record highs were set today 4/29. SBY has a chance on
Tuesday, while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974
* ORF: 93/1988
* SBY: 86/2017
* ECG: 90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...RMM/TMG
LONG TERM...RMM/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/TMG
MARINE...AJB/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ