Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230640 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region later today through tonight. Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under the influence of high pressure. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend, especially by Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 PM EDT Tuesday... Initial area of convection now exiting the ern shore...w/ another area of tstms moving E into scentral VA. Will maintain 40-70% PoPs across portions of central/srn VA until after midnight as that 2nd area of tstms enters those locations. Otherwise...partly to mostly cloudy overnight w/ 20-30% PoPs. Lows from the m-u60s N to u60s-l70s S. Btw...RIC unofficially received 1.33" of RA from the initial stms this eve...that amount (added to the 8.84" up through Mon) would make May 2018 the wettest on record (totally 10.17" through 830 pm this eve). The surface front over the Ohio Valley will slowly move through the area on Wednesday. Models suggest the front will take pretty much the entire day to move through the region, and as a result much of the southern half of the local area will remain south of the front through the afternoon. This should allow for thunderstorms to once again develop along the front in the afternoon. Winds aloft are only marginal for severe storms in the afternoon with only about 20-25 kt of shear during the afternoon. Could not rule out some line segments with gusty winds but organized severe unlikely. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday... A needed respite from all of the recent heavy rain will prevail as ~1025 mb sfc high pressure is progged to be centered over the lower Great Lakes by 12Z/Thu, ridging SE into the local area by Thu aftn. Dew pts dropping into the 50-55 F range for most of the region will make for comfortable/pleasant conditions. Highs Thu stay slightly above avg inland with lower-mid 80s, while areas near the coast will be cooler due to onshore low level NE flow (highs there in the upper 70s to around 80 F). Mostly clear and relatively cool Thu night with lows mainly in the mid 50s to around 60 F. This is close to avg but noteworthy as most of the CWA except on the eastern shore and far northern portions have not had a low below 60 F in over 10 days. Mostly sunny and warm and continued dry with dew pts Fri in the 50s and highs ranging from the mid 80s inland to the upper 70s/lower 80s near the coast. Mostly clear and trending a bit warmer Fri night with lows primarily in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Monday... The upper ridge will be gradually weakening on Sat, but it will still be mainly dry with just a 20-30% PoP for widely scattered aftn/evening storms. Highs in the mid/upper 80s. The upper ridge will then erode more significantly through the holiday weekend with a gradual increase in moisture as it appears that another area of low pressure will form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and push more tropical moisture northward into the region. This could allow for more showers and tropical downpours for Sunday and again on Monday. The big model difference in the models is the handling of a backdoor cold front between the 12z GFS and ECMWF with the GFS pushing the front south through the area and the ECMWF keeping the boundary well north of the area. In either case, the chance for showers and some possibly heavy rainfall exist for the second half of the Holiday weekend. If the GFS is right with the front Monday could be a damp cool rainy day while the ECMWF would lead to more periodic showers with some breaks. At this time of year, seems more likely the for the front to hang north of the area. So have kept the temperatures up more in the low to mid 80s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... Mainly VFR early this morning despite some lingering isolated/scattered showers passing across central/southern VA. Some patchy ground fog will be possible through 12Z, but do not expect this to affect any terminals so VFR conditions will generally be the rule. Later today, expect showers and tstms to redevelop, mainly over southern VA and NE NC (though an isolated storm will be possible at KRIC/KSBY through about 22Z). KECg has the greatest chance and TAF there continues with a period of prevailing SHRA in the mid/late aftn with VCSH at KORF/KPHF. Some brief heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible. Otherwise, becoming mostly clear from N to S from 00-06Z with NE winds. Quiet conditions/no flight restrictions Thu/Fri with high pressure in place and mostly sunny/clear skies. Increasing moisture returns for the upcoming weekend with scattered showers/tstms possible by Sat aftn/evening. The showers and tstms overall will become more numerous on Sunday and beyond with potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 405 PM EDT Tuesday... The surface warm front is straggling along the northeast coast near OXB and it continues to gradually lift NE away from the region. The flow is now turning to the south and southwest this afternoon and evening. Some showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters this evening as the lee side trough pulls away from the mountains. But the winds will generally remain out of the south to southwest at 5 - 10 KT overnight. The next cold front will drop SE through the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The flow will turn nw behind this front and there will be a short increase in winds to about 15 KT as slightly cooler and drier air pushes in behind front. Once the front clears the area, high pressure will settle over the waters for Thursday into Friday night. This will provide light winds and benign seas through Friday night. On Saturday, the flow will return to the south as the high pressure system slides off the SE US coast. Expect some increase in winds to 10 - 15 KT. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... Flood warning continues for the Appomattox River basin. Mattoax is currently close to reaching moderate flooding. Additional flood warnings continue for portions of the Chickahominy and Mattaponi rivers. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .CLIMATE... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/22 is 10.22" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/22 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/MRD SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...ESS HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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