-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
320
FXUS61 KAKQ 140722
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another round of showers returns to the region today, with
periods of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms continuing
through Wednesday. Warmer with additional showers and storms
late Friday into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers overspread the region from SW to NE today.

- The heaviest rain is expected from late this afternoon through the
first part of tonight before rain tapers off early Wednesday
morning.

- The highest rainfall totals (up to 1-1.5" with locally higher
amounts) are expected to be in SE VA and NE NC, with 0.5-0.75"
in most other locations.

Early morning wx analysis shows high pressure offshore with low
pressure near the MO/AR border gradually tracking eastward. A closed
upper low is tracking across MO with SW flow aloft over the Mid-
Atlantic. Mid to high level clouds have overspread the area as WAA
aloft has begun. In addition, a few light showers have moved into
the Piedmont.

The low pressure system is progged to approach the area today and
widespread showers will overspread the area from SW to NE through
the day. Rain will likely be ongoing across nearly the entire area
by 6 PM or so as rather strong mid-level forcing/lift arrives from
the SW and PWs climb to 1.6-1.8". We will likely remain on the cool
side of the system as a warm front sets up to our south and tries to
approach this evening. As a result, there will only be a few hundred
J/kg of sfc-based instability...which will lead to some locally
heavier showers but am not expecting much in the way of thunder
before 4-6 PM. Highs likely don`t get out of the 60s across portions
of the Piedmont, while areas to the east see temps in the low to mid
70s as the precipitation will start later in the day. QPFs through 8
PM are close to 0.5" across the Piedmont with lesser amounts near
the coast (although coastal areas will see heavier rain tonight).

A secondary low is progged to begin developing along the frontal
boundary across NC this evening before moving into NE NC tonight and
finally pushing offshore Wed AM. As a result, the heaviest rain is
expected between 5 PM and 1 AM along and to the N/NE of the low
track. At this time, this would still put the highest QPFs (1-1.5"
w/ locally higher amounts through tonight) across SE VA and NE NC.
QPFs in most other locations are in the 0.5-0.75" range during this
timeframe. In addition, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two
this evening-tonight (mainly along/S of I-64) as some elevated
instability tries to make it into the area. Rain should taper off
from SW to NE early Wednesday morning as the deepest moisture (along
with the strongest mid/upper forcing) pushes offshore. Temps will
fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s tonight with breezy SE winds (gusts
to 20-30 mph) developing near the coast just ahead of the deepening
secondary low.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers linger over the area on Wednesday with cooler temperatures
(60s) likely across northern portions of the area and 70s to near
80F in NE NC.

- A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across
southern VA and NE NC.

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may
persist.

On Wednesday, the surface low will track NE along or just offshore
of the VA coast while the upper low currently over MO becomes an
open wave as it tracks from west to east before gradually moving
offshore Wed night/early Thu. The sfc low will likely linger
offshore of the VA coast through a good part of Thursday. Wednesday
will likely be overcast with light rain or drizzle across northern
portions of the area with temps holding in the 60s with a N-NE wind
while it will warm well into the 70s in extreme SE VA/NE NC with a
westerly wind with showers and a few tstms developing during the day
as the upper low/trough approaches. It is important to note that
there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday
especially with respect to temps (which will depend on the exact
track of the low). If it is farther south than shown my model
consensus (like the NAMNest shows), temps will struggle to get out
of the 60s across much of the area. On the other hand, if the
farther north and slower ECMWF solution verifies, it will warm into
the 70s farther north than expected (with more tstm coverage during
the aftn but less in the way of low clouds/light rain/drizzle).
Regardless, additional QPFs on Wed are no higher than a few tenths
of an inch with locally higher amounts expected in tstms.

A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions
overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds
may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially
longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of
clearing inland by the aftn. Temps rise to ~70F on the eastern shore
with mid to upper 70s inland. There may be just enough instability
for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Highs
Thu once again in the mid/upper 70s well inland to lower/mid 70s
along the coast. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s-60F with dry
wx expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-Warm weather is expected late this week with increasing chances for
showers and storms later Friday and especially this weekend.

Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another
system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible
west of I-95 late in the day. Better rain chances arrive over the
weekend as another shortwave trough approaches from the SW.
While it is still 5 days out, the best chance for showers/tstms
appears to be on Saturday (highest coverage likely during the
aftn/evening), with lingering showers possible on the back side of
the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this
week into the weekend. Drier wx returns early next week with temps
warming above average.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the morning but deteriorating
conditions are expected later today-tonight as a low pressure
system approaches. Showers will overspread the terminals from
SW-NE from late morning (at RIC) through the evening (near the
coast). Clouds lower today as well, with the potential for MVFR
CIGs at RIC by late morning-midday, with the remaining sites
not experiencing MVFR CIGs until late aftn/evening. CIGs
eventually lower to IFR tonight at all of the terminals (w/ LIFR
possible after 06z).

In addition, the showers could be heavy at times INVOF
PHF/ORF/ECG between 00-06z (with a slight chc of a tstm). MVFR
VSBYs are expected with brief IFR VSBYs possible in the heavier
showers. The wind will mainly be SE-SSE 8-12kt, with gusts up
to 20kt possible at PHF/ORF/ECG from late aftn-tonight. Periodic
flight restrictions continue Wednesday with scattered showers
and potentially a few aftn tstms across srn portions of the CWA.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday. Another low
pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded
flight conditions Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

-SCAs are in effect for the Ches Bay through late tonight for a
brief period of elevated S to SE winds.

-Additional SCAs are likely ahead of a low pressure system Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning

High pressure is centered just off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon. Winds have shifted to the SE as of latest obs and are
picking up to 10-15kt with a few gusts to 20kt. Have noticed a gusts
of 20kt+ becoming more frequent in the mouth/lower bay, so have
started the SCA for these zones a couple of hours early. The upper
bay will go into effect later this evening. Winds will temporarily
drop below SCA criteria late tonight/early Tuesday, but additional
SCAs are likely needed starting Tues afternoon. A low pressure
system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area
from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure
gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening,
allowing S winds to increase to around 20kt (and remain elevated
through most of Tue night). Local wind probs continue to show an 80-
100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. Probs of 25kt gusts
have increased for the southern coastal waters and lower bay, which
are now showing 50-75% Tues night. Therefore, SCAs appear likely for
the bay and ocean (and perhaps the Lower James/Currituck Sound) with
this system. Breezy, but sub-SCA, northerly winds are expected
behind the low through Thurs.

Afternoon buoy obs reflect 3ft seas and waves of 1-3ft. Seas will
increase to ~4ft tonight and remain at 3-4ft through tomorrow. Seas
increase to 4-5ft Tues night as winds come up and remain elevated
into Wed night. Waves will be 1-3ft tonight, falling back to 1-2ft
in the morning. Waves come back up to 1-3ft Tuesday afternoon with
4ft waves likely in the lower bay Tues night. Back to 1-2ft once
winds drop off Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...AM/ERI