Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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534 FXUS61 KAKQ 241905 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Canada will continue to ridge south into the local area early this afternoon, before retreating offshore by this evening as low pressure moves into The Tennessee Valley. The low will move east across the Carolinas tonight, then offshore early Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday afternoon though Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Latest analysis indicating strong sfc high pressure (1040mb+) centered over James Bay Canada, ridging south through the Great lakes and into the local area late this morning. Sfc low pressure is moving through the lower OH Valley, well out ahead of a strong upper low spinning over Iowa. As of late this morning, high clouds are streaming into the CWA in the NW flow aloft, but overall skies are still partly sunny to mostly sunny. Temperatures remain on the cool side, averaging in the lower to mid 40s over the region. For the aftn, expect a gradual thickening/lowering of the clouds genly from SW to NE such that south central VA zones become mostly cloudy by 18Z, while skies avg partly-mostly sunny for a few more hrs over the NE. Will maintain chc PoPs over south central VA after 21Z, Highs will be mainly in the mid-upper 40s near the coast (due to a light onshore flow) and over the far W/SW (where clouds arrive earlier). Interior SE VA/central VA will likely rise to around 50 F. Dew pts remain low this aftn, in the 20s. By this evening, latest 24/12Z NAM/GFS into fairly good agreement that ~1008mb sfc low pressure will be centered over western TN/SW KY with a secondary area of falling pressure/sfc troughing extending across GA into SC. Strong lift through the DGZ (-12 to -18C) is progged to be moving into north central NC and SW/south central VA by 00Z this evening. Boundary layer will initially be well above freezing, but with sfc dew pts in the 20s, expect readings to fall/wet-bulb rather quickly by 00-03Z in areas where high precipitation intensity occurs. This should allow for a changeover to wet snow from 00-03Z over south central VA zones, though deepest moisture still appears to barely brush far SW portions of AKQ CWA. Overall, anticipating a narrow zone of accumulating snow to around 1" or perhaps a little more to clip Mecklenburg Co, with mainly little to nothing not far to the N/NE of that. Will continue to fine-tune forecast with aftn package, but for now little change to the overall forecast. Mostly cloudy, but remaining dry north of I64 tonight, buffered by a 20-40% to south side of metro Richmond and to the Peninsula and Hampton Roads. Lows in the upr 20s northern most zones to low to mid 30s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lingering light pcpn (rain or a rain/snow mix) across far srn tier zones Sun morning with skies becoming pt sunny during the late morning/aftn as high pressure to the north builds into the area. Secondary trough swings south across the nern zones late, but don`e see any moisture other than BKN cloud coverage. Brisk with gusty N/NW winds 15-25 mph along with highs 45-50 F. Strong/1040 mb+ high pressure across ern Canada will nose down the ern slopes of the Appalachians Sun night through Mon night. NE winds along with periodic cloud coverage will continue the well below normal temps. Dry with lows both nights in the upr 20s nw to mid 30s se. Highs Mon in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Finally...temperatures averaging around normal in the extended portion of the forecast. This period starts out cool with temperatures moderating mid- late week. Deep layered SW flow develops from the Plains states to the mid Atlantic region Wed...w/ one weak lo pres area passing by N of the local area (into Thu). A second...more amplified system develops invof MS Valley Thu then tracks to the E coast through Fri eve. Both systems will bring increased cloudiness and PoPs. Highest Pops (50-70%) will be during Fri as a moderate cold front crosses the FA. Blended GFS/ECMWF/WPC through the period wrt timing of pcpn. Drying out by Sat. Lows Tue night from the m30s inland to around 40F at the immediate coast. Highs Wed in the l-m50s at the coast to the l-m60s inland. Lows Wed night in the m-u40s N to the l50s S. Highs Thu in the u50s-around 60F on the ern shore...the l-m60s in ern VA near the Ches Bay/Ocean...and u60s over the piedmont and mainly 70-75F from central VA to interior NE NC. Low Thu night from the u40s to m50s. Highs to the m-u60s in central VA to interior NE NC. Highs Fri in the m-u50s at the coast to the l-m60s inland. Highs Sat in the l50s at the coast to the m-u50s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions continue as high pressure to the north noses down the ern seaboard today. SKC to start with high/mid level clouds overspreading the region after 18Z. Moisture from the approaching system to the west gets shunted south into the Carolinas after 00Z. Thus, most of the AKQ TAF sites stay dry. The exception will be at ECG where some light rain will develop after 04Z. Outlook: Low pressure pushes offshore Sun morning with high pres building in from the north. Improving conditions back to VFR Sun. High pres becomes anchored over New England, with VFR conditions through the middle of next week. && .MARINE...
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Sfc hi pres extends from N of the Great Lakes SE to the local waters this afternoon...resulting in sub-SCA conditions as NW winds continue to wane. A weak area of low pressure approaches and passes S of the region Saturday night into Sun morning. Lo pres deepens (well) E and offshore of the local waters Sun-Mon. VRB winds blo 15 kt tonight...becoming NE late. NE winds will be increasing substantial by late Sun morning as strong sfc hi pres invof SE Canada starts to build S. Windspeeds to increase to 15-30 kt Sun afternoon. Model guidance and wind probabilities indicate the potential for occasional Gale force gusts across the srn ocean waters Sun night. Have gone w/ strong SCAs (increasing to 20-25 kt on the nrn Ches Bay...25-30 kt over the srn Ches Bay...over the ocean waters and on the Currituck Sound (15-25 kt for the VA rivers). Seas also build quickly Sun...reaching 7-9 ft N...8 to 9 ft S. Waves on the bay to 2-5 ft...5-7 ft at the mouth. Winds will remain strong into Mon afternoon before slowly waning heading into mid week. However...despite lowering winds Tue- Wed...elevated conditions...esp in the form seas aoa 5 ft, are expected to remain over the local ocean waters as the ocean storm lingers (well) offshore.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJB/ALB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.