Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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756 FXUS61 KAKQ 221425 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1025 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Sunday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered just offshore. The high also extends up into the Great Lakes region. To the west, a potent upper level/closed low continues to slide slowly east across the southern plains toward the lower Mississippi River Valley, with an inverted surface trough developing over the west-central Gulf coast region. Late morning MSAS data showing pressure falls over the deep south, in the vicinity of developing sfc low pressure in E Louisiana into MS. It is this feature that will slowly lift our way tonight through Monday, bringing increasing rain chances later Monday evening through midweek. For today, noting some increasing high cirrus over northern portions of the area. Will continue to see mid to high clouds increase through the afternoon, especially inland. However, will nonetheless see another dry, pleasant day with comfortable temperatures. Nudged high temps up slightly for the afternoon, mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s along the immediate coast to upper 60s to around 70 inland. Local area remains under the influence of sfc high pressure positioned just off the coast. Another dry night with any pcpn staying well W-SW of the local area. Expect a partly cloudy sky with low temps ranging through the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... Unsettled wx pattern shaping up this week as low pressure ejects east from the nations mid section and into the Tenn valley by late Mon. Models prog a potent srn stream s/w around the base of the long wave trof Mon night then move it ne to near the Carolina coast Tue. This keeps the local area on the cooler side of this system with a general rain expected to overspread the area. Keeping most of Mon dry except for some low chc pops after 18Z across the far swrn zones. Otw, bcmg cloudy with highs in the 60s except for upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa Mon night except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take until 12Z Tue to reach. Pops ramp up to categorical south of I64, likely-chc pops to the north. Lows Mon night mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks wet with cat/likely pops throughout the day. Enough lift/Gulf of Mexico moisture noted for some areas of mdt to heavy rain. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... After the main area of rain exits the region between 6-12z Wednesday, we should see enough sunshine for temperatures to warm up to around 70 Wed PM. 21/12z GFS/ECMWF have showers lingering throughout the day on Wed, so kept PoPs between 50-60%. GFS even hints at the possibility of a few thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Most recent guidance has backed off on the rain Thursday-Friday AM. ECMWF has the most QPF, and the best chance of rain looks to be over southern/eastern portions of the CWA. Thus, have lowered PoPs to below 30%. Highs between 68-74/lows around 50 expected Thu-Fri. A potent 500mb shortwave is forecast to track over the northeastern US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as well as another shot of below average temperatures. Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength/timing of this storm system. Highs in the 60s on Saturday with lows dropping into the 40s Sunday AM. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 640 AM EDT Sunday... VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Expect calm/under 5 kt winds early this morning with a shift to the E/SE at 5-10 kt later today. High clouds increase through the TAF period. Outlook: A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing steady rain which will result in flight restrictions. Restrictions will likely last through at least 12z Wednesday before conditions slowly improve during the day. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure centered over New England and Atlantic Canada will prevail across the region today. A S/SW wind of 5-10kt this morning will become SE by this aftn. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast Monday and Tuesday as low pressure lifts from the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by late Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with the potential for 25-30kt S of the VA/NC border Tuesday. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 5-9ft Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-6ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (3- 5ft elsewhere in the Bay). Broad low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low. A cold front approaches from the W later in the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...AJZ

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