Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190807 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the area today. Dry weather with below normal temperatures will prevail Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1002 mb low pressure over nrn VA. This low will track east today and drag a cold front through the local area. Despite meager moisture fields there is sufficient forcing associated with a potent mid-level shortwave trough for iso-sct shras over NE areas later this morning/midday. Otws, decreasing clouds this aftn with dewpoints dropping quickly behind the front. The low RH and winds gusting up to 25-35 mph will lead to increased fire danger this aftn (see fire wx section below for more info). High temps today mainly in the 60s. Winds slowly decrease tonight under a mostly clear sky. Should be too dry for frost, but temps are expected to bottom out around 32F over portions of the Piedmont where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Low temps in the mid/upr 30s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Dry/cool wx Fri as lo pres is slow to exit New England and hi pres only gradually builds into the local area from the NW. Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind near the coast. Mostly sunny w/ highs mainly 55-60F. Dry/cool wx continues Fri night-Sat as sfc hi pres arrives from the NW. Winds to decouple/become light most places Thu night resulting in another night w/ lows in the mid 30s inland to around 40F near coast in ern/SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Sat w/ N winds aob 10 mph and highs from the u50s E to the l-m60s along-W of I 95. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 PM EDT Wednesday... Below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended period as surface high pressure slowly moves from the wrn Great Lakes to New England from Sunday through Tuesday. At the same time, a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances return early next week as that same area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Some track/timing differences exist between the 18/12z suite of guidance. GFS brings in the rain late in the day on Monday while the ECMWF holds it off until Tuesday PM and has much less QPF than the GFS. CMC keeps all of the precipitation south of the CWA. Given the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% for the bulk of the CWA from Tue- Wed. Highs in the mid-upper 60s Sun-Wed from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with low 60s Sun-Tue warming to mid 60s by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 40s throughout the CWA on Mon/Tue rising to around 50 Wed AM with the clouds/possible rain. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Included some MVFR cigs solely at KSBY where an increase in low-level moisture is expected over the next couple hours. Guidance continues to show LLWS for all TAF sites this morning as a warm front passes through the region. A cold front will then move through the area during the day and bring mid level clouds and gusty W-NW winds. Expect sustained winds of ~20 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt from late morning through the afternoon. Kept all TAFs dry for now, but the best chance for any pcpn is at KSBY. Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sat. Winds will diminish and shift to the NW tonight. VFR/dry with ~10 kt winds from the NW on Fri, shifting to the N to NE on Sat. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Low pressure is pushing across the coast early this morning with a cold front trailing back to the SW of the low. Low pressure will push off the Delmarva coast by 12z, with the cold front pushing across the coast later this morning. A SW wind is generally 10-15kt ahead of the low. The wind will become NW aob 15kt as the low pushes offshore, and then become WNW 15-25kt later this morning into the aftn as CAA develops in the wake of the cold front. The wind will become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for the Bay/ocean. Seas will initially be ~3ft early this morning, then build to 4-6ft later this aftn into tonight. Waves in the Bay will be ~2ft, the increase to 3-4ft later this aftn into tonight. Current SCA flags will remain as is, but there will be a few hours of sub-SCA conditions early today before CAA develops. High pressure builds in from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary surge is expected Friday night, but this surge should generally be sub-SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... With little to no rain in the forecast today and with a frontal passage, pattern looks favorable given the time of year, and the typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures for increased fire concerns (this afternoon/early eve). After coordination w/ the VA fire service have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement (SPS) for today over central and eastern VA as W winds become gusty to 25-35 mph and most RH values fall to 25-30% (in the afternoon/early eve). Also have a SPS for Increased Fire Danger for all of NE NC except the NC Outer Banks...and for the VA ern shore and VA Beach.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...ALB/MAS LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...MAS/JEF MARINE...AJZ FIRE WEATHER...

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