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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
157
FXUS61 KAKQ 251042
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
642 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks across Virginia today, then moves away from
the coast tonight. Weak high pressure returns Thursday. Another
area of low pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 555 AM EDT Wednesday...

Update for (more) FG...esp invof Hampton Roads through mid
morning. VSBYS less than 1/2-3/4 NM.

Previous Discussion:
Weak sfc lo pres invof wcentral NC attm...tracks slowly ENE
through ern VA today. Bulk of the RA from the past 24 hours has
lifted N of the local area. Lo CIGS and patchy/areas of
-RA/-DZ and FG linger over much of the FA...w/ exception over
coastal NE NC. These conditions are expected to last through
early/mid morning. Trailing upper level lo pres will slowly
cross the area this afternoon...accompanied by SCT- likely
SHRAS. Otherwise...VRB clouds-mostly cloudy midday/this
afternoon. Models suggest enough instability available as the
cold pool aloft enters/crosses the local area (esp srn/se VA-NE
NC) for possible (ISOLD) tstms. Highs today from the m60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Lo pres (sfc-aloft) exits the region this eve resulting in
lowering PoPs. Will continue w/ trend of lowering PoPs SW-NE
this eve...then drying begins overnight. Expecting some
lingering moisture over far srn/SE areas of the FA into Thu
morning. Lows from around 50F NW to the m50s SE.

A brief break from the unsettled wx Thu...though expecting
clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as the next
area of lo pres tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA. Have held off
on raising PoPs above 14% over the (SW portion of the) FA
through 00Z/27. Highs Thu mainly 70-75F.

A quick increase in PoPs (to 50-80%) Thu night as lo pres enters
the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE half of the FA Fri
morning...tapering to 20-30% SW. The lo pres area lifts to the
NE of the local area Fri afternoon...however will be keeping
20-30% as a lo pres trough remains invof the FA.
Otherwise...mostly cloudy then partly sunny Fri...w/ highs from
the u60s-around 70F N to the m70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

GFS/ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last
in a series of s/w trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof
late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak
frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any
support for pcpn even with the frontal passage Sat. A model blend
results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and
Sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite
upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches.

After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as
high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position
over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue. Cool to
start then a warming trend.  Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr
50s. Highs Tue 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Wednesday...

Starting out w/ widespread LIFR/IFR conditions (primarily due to
CIGS)...except around ECG. Sfc lo pres invof wcentral NC will be
tracking slowly NE through ern VA today as an upper level low
arrives from the W and crosses the region midday through this
eve. Will have continued LIFR/IFR conditions (mainly CIGS) through
mid morning along w/ patchy -RA/-DZ. By this afternoon...VRB
clouds-mostly cloudy as CIGS lift through MVFR to potential lo
end VFR. Will continue w/ SCT-Likely SHRAS and there could be
ISOLD tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the region from about
17Z/25-00Z/26. Confidence not high enough attm to add to the
TAFs. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as lo pres finally
moves away to the ENE. VFR conditions expected Thu as weak hi
pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the region by
late Thu night into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely
due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions
expected Sat-Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 555 AM EDT Wednesday...

Update to add dense FG advisory for waters invof Hampton Roads
until about 14Z/25. VSBYS aob 3/4NM.

Previous Discussion:
Broad low pressure was cntrd over northcentral NC early this
morning. This low will lift NE and acrs ern VA, the Delmarva,
and into New Jersey today into tonight. ESE winds 10-20 kt early
this morning, will shift to the SSW 5-15 kt during today, then
become W then NW tonight into Thu morning. The low will move
farther away to the NE later tonight into Thu, as weak high
pressure builds in fm the NNW. Waves/seas will subside later
today thru Thu. Another low pressure area will affect the waters
Thu night thru Fri, as it tracks fm the SE U.S. northeast acrs
VA and into New Jersey.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-
     636-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM/TMG