Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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225 FXUS61 KAKQ 160752 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front drops farther south of the region this morning...becoming stalled across the Carolinas this afternoon and high pressure builds to the northwest. Low pressure moves across the Mid Atlantic region from the west on Saturday. High pressure rebuilds over the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest weather analysis reveals weak cool front now south of the local area. 1024mb sfc high pressure continues to nudge south across the Ohio Valley from the upper midwest. A developing storm system is taking shape over the central High Plains this morning, in the form of a negatively tilted shortwave lifting across E Colorado into W Kansas. Meanwhile, to the north, weakening upper level low continues to linger over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Several weak upper disturbances rotating around the base of the upper low over the northeast is bringing a thin deck of sct-bkn high clouds across the DelMarVa and from SE VA into northeast NC. For today...sfc high to the west will gradually build across the local area from the NW. Have gone toward the high end of the guidance envelope slower frontal timing and resultant full sunshine and dry airmass. Highs mid to upper 40s over the eastern shore, upper 40s to low 50s for central VA/Richmond metro to the northern neck and Tidewater areas, and 55 to 60 south central VA into interior NE NC. Not quite as breezy today with slackening pressure gradient, with gusts only to 15 to 20 mph today. However, some N-NW winds still gusting to ~25 MPH over the eastern shore as a result of the sfc trough offshore of the northeast coast. Surface high slides offshore tonight, as the developing system to the west deamplifies and slides across the Mid-Missouri valley toward the midwest overnight. As this happens, the deepening sfc low will slide along the quasi-stationary boundary to the south tonight into Saturday. Tonight will begin clear to mostly clear, with clouds thickening and lowering late, as the front begins to lift back north as a warm front late. Low level moisture aloft overspreads the wrn half of the local area during this same time frame after midnight. This to be mainly in the form of clouds as the lwr levels remain dry thru about 12Z Sat. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Occluding low over the Ohio Valley will send first slug of overrunning moisture across the local area Saturday morning, with additional periods of rain through the day as the low tracks east across the region Sat Aftn and night. Could see a brief wintry mix (rain/sleet/snow) across northern sections at the onset btwn 12Z- 15Z as we wet-bulb up Sat morning. However, most of the pcpn will be in liquid form. First slug of light overrunning moisture slides across the north Saturday morning, with likely pops beginning soonest across the north. Rain chances increase across the south Sat afternoon and night, as the low slides overhead and slides offshore late Sat night. Rain chances taper down from north to south Sat evening into Sun morning. QPF mainly light, with expected rain totals generally on the order of a tenth of an inch or less across the north, and between a tenth and quarter of an inch along and south of US-460. Highs mid 40s ern shore to the mid 50s swrn most zones. Early morning lows Sunday 30-35 far north, mid-upr 30s central and south. High pressure then builds over the area, bringing a dry Sunday. Highs in the mid-upr 40s ern shore, 50-55 west of the bay under a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 12Z/15 GFS and ECMWF models are generally in agreement thru most of the extended period, except the GFS is much stronger/deeper with low pressure and trough late Wed thru Thu. At this time, will continue to lean toward the ECMWF for the fcst. High pressure will be over the area, then slide offshore Sun night into Mon morning, maintaining dry wx. A couple of stronger low pressure areas will then affect the region late Mon into Tue night, bringing likely PoPs (at this time) for rain. One low lifts NE thru TN/KY and twd srn OH, while another low tracks acrs the SE U.S. and off the Mid Atlc coast while intensifying. Decreasing PoPs late Tue night and Wed, as the one low lifts thru ern OH, while the low off the coast starts to shift farther away to the ENE. Lingering slgt chance PoPs Wed night and Thu, with a few flurries or snow showers possible in the NW counties Wed night. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s Mon, range fm the upper 40s far NNW, to the lower 60s SE Tue, range fm the mid 40s to mid 50s Wed, and range fm the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will range thru the 30s Sun night, in the upper 30s to upper 40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, and range thru the 30s Wed night. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period. Sfc cold front will drop farther south into the Carolinas through Friday. Wind speeds increase to 10-15kt (by late) Fri morning w/gusts to ~20kt by afternoon. Sfc high pres briefly builds into the area Friday night w/ a quick moving system bringing ISOLD/SCT SHRAs and perhaps some brief, periodic flight restrictions during Sat afternoon through Sat evening. Outlook: Gradual clearing from north to south, with VFR conditions by Sunday. High pressure briefly returns for Sun. Another window of flight restrictions by Mon/Tue, as Low pressure approaches from the SW. && .MARINE... A weak cold front settles south of the southern coastal waters this morning. NNW winds behind the front will increase to 10-15 kt be before sunrise, then to 15-25 kt by late this morning into the afternoon. Highest winds will remain north of Cape Henry today, so SCAs will not be required for the the southern coastal waters, Currituck sound and also the Rivers. SCAs will remain in effect for the remaining waters thru 7 pm. High pressure briefly settles into the area tonight and Saturday morning with NW winds around 10 kt becoming light and variable late Saturday. A pair of weak low pressure systems look to pass thru North Carolina late Saturday and Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure remains entrenched across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This should keep the winds NNE AOB 15 kt across the local waters thru Sunday. Light and variable winds on Monday. The next system impacts the area Tuesday/Wednesday of next week when another round of SCA conditions will be likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite rh`s between 20-30% once again today, the winds will not be slightly less of an issue as pressure gradient slackens a bit. With temps looking slightly cooler as well, we therefore expect that we will be able to hold off on any fire statement today. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent and modest offshore flow will allow water levels to approach -1 ft MLLW along the mid-Atlantic coast during low tide through Friday. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX continues offline due to a transmitter upgrade. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAM MARINE...JDM FIRE WEATHER... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... 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