Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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136 FXUS61 KAKQ 201821 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 221 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Somewhat drier air will prevail this afternoon before another round of increasing moisture returns Monday through Wednesday. A period of dry weather looks promising by Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM EDT Sunday... The widespread RA of the past few days has ended. SW flow has taken over and will continue through this afternoon...resulting in a drier day (at least wrt PoPs). Expecting VRB clouds-partly sunny conditions...have gone w/ a bit lower PoPs (to 15-30%) for this afternoon as heating will be the main trigger. By this eve...a slight uptick in PoPs possible invof sfc trough over NNW portions of the FA and invof lingering moisture axis in SE VA- NE NC. SW winds will average 10-20 mph...bit gusty at times to 25 mph. Highs in the m-u80s...even around 80F at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1015 AM EDT Sunday... but by the evening high res models are suggesting a secondary area of showers/tstms develops/moves in from the WNW and have 20-30% PoPs moving through all areas. Partly/mostly cloudy tonight with lows mainly from the mid 60s to around 70 F. On Mon, will see some weak onshore NE flow develop for awhile along the coast, but by aftn as the flow aloft shifts from the W to the WSW...expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next approaching systems from the S and W. Partly sunny- mostly cloudy w/ PoPs by afternoon rising to 30-50% inland in the afternoon...10-30% toward the ern shore. SPC has marginal risk SVR now staying off to the NW of the local area. Highs in the 70s at the coast to the low- mid 80s inland. Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w/ possible SCT SHRAS-tstms)...and will have 40-60% PoPs all areas. Sfc high pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue. Low pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest- OH Valley Tue. VRB clouds- partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs (20-40%) (Tue) ahead of that system, but PoPs have been increased later in the day w/ decent feed of moisture and lift noted by latest NAM/GFS 00Z runs. Lows Mon night in the low 60s on the lower MD ern shore to the m-u60s elsewhere. Highs Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... A respite from the wet wx pattern suggested by most extended models for mid-late in the upcoming week. Just enough of a NW flow aloft suggests that drying will take place after Wed and last into next weekend. Lo pres passing by N of the region Tue night-Wed will push a cold front (possibly accompanied by SHRAS/tstms) E and S of the local area. Hi pres is then expected to build into the region for Thu-Fri. By next Sat...a return flow from the SSW to set up potentially resulting in increasing moisture/gradual rise in PoPs. Lows Tue night in the m-u60s. Highs Wed in the 70s-around 80F at the coast to the m80s inland. Lows Wed night in the l-m60s. Highs Thu from the u70s-m80s. Lows Thu night mainly 60-65F. Highs Fri 80-85F...70s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the m-u80s inland...u70s-l80s at the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday... A narrow band of SHRAS was found from near coastal SE VA SW to just NW of the wrn tip of the Albemarle Sound attm. Otherwise...SCT-BKN CU mainly 3-4kft over the local area w/ SW winds avgg blo 15 kt. There will remain a 15-30% PoP in SE VA/NE NC into ealry this evening. Another area of SCT SHRAS/tstms will be possible as a weak frontal boundary drops tonight-early Mon. Still not really expecting anything widespread but some brief flight restrictions will be possible mainly from 00-06Z/21 N to 06-12Z/21 S. Went w/ lower end MVFR CIGS at all but SBY Mon morning as winds turn NNE. A warm front lifts across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAS (ISOLD tstms) (PoP 20-50%) w/ possible lower CIGS. Aftn/evening showers/tstms willpossible Tue through Wed. A moist airmass will remain over the region and a potential will exist for patchy early morning fog and/or stratus. High pressure may build in from the N by Thu bringing mainly VFR conditions to end the week. && .MARINE... As of 415 AM EDT Sunday... SSW winds were mainly 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt early this morning acrs the waters. Winds will become SW later this morning into this aftn at 5-15 kt. Seas will be 3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island into this evening, where a SCA remains in effect. Waves 1-3 ft this morning, then 1-2 ft by tonight. Another frontal boundary will drop into at least northern portions of the area late tonight into Mon morning, but NE or E winds will remain around 10 kt or less over the northern waters. Thus, am expecting seas to remain between 2-4 ft on Mon, with waves fm 1-2 ft. The frontal boundary lifts back north of the region Mon night into Tue morning, with winds becoming S 5-15 kt during Tue. SW winds 5-15 kt expected late Tue night into Wed morning. A cold front then drops through the region Wed night into Thu morning, with winds turning northerly. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 530 AM EDT Sunday... Flood warnings have been cancelled for Bremo Bluff on the James River, and Rawlings on the Nottoway River. Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River basins. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 415 AM EDT Sunday... A Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM for areas adjacent to the Potomac River on the Northern Neck, and also for the Chesapeake Bay side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore until 11 AM for this morning`s high tide cycle. Water levels will run 1-1.5 ft above normal, resulting in minor tidal flooding at Lewisetta, Bishops Head and Cambridge. && .CLIMATE... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.51" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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