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003
FXUS61 KAKQ 290743
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast through
midweek with a ridge remaining overhead through the week. Well above
normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak
cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with
scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Precipitation
chances increase this weekend as another cold front approaches the
area.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Near record high temperatures today.

A strong upper level ridge is in place from Florida into the OH
Valley with sfc high pressure anchored off the SE US coast. Cirrus
early this morning dissipate by mid morning with mostly sunny skies
expected today apart from some fair weather CU. Temps as of 310 AM
ranged from the low-mid 60s with morning lows in the lower 60s for
most (upper 50s across interior portions of NE NC). Dry and hot
today with SW winds 5-10 mph N and 10-15 mph S. Highs this afternoon
in the upper 80s to around 90F for most and mid-upper 80s SW. Record
highs today are generally in the 90s apart from 89F at SBY (see
climate section below for more information). As such, most areas
will be a few degrees shy of records except SBY which may reach or
exceed the daily record high. Mild tonight with lows in the upper
50s SW to the low-mid 60s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Tuesday.
-Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday with a cold front
passage.

Aloft, a ridge weakens Tue and Wed as a shortwave moves through. At
the surface, a weak area of low pressure moves E through the Mid
Atlantic and off the coast Tue into early Wed with high pressure
building in behind it. This pushes a weak cold front through the
area late Tue night into Wed. A few isolated showers/storms are
possible across the Piedmont Tue afternoon/evening with the
shortwave. Temps will once again be well above normal on Tue with
highs in the upper 80s for most. SBY may once again reach or exceed
the daily record high (see climate section below for more
information).

PoPs increase Wed morning into Wed afternoon as scattered
showers/storms develop along and behind the cold front moving
through the area. PoPs have trended higher (35-55%) with the best
chance for rain across SE VA/NE NC where around ~0.25" of rain is
possible. The rain ends by Wed evening with dry weather expected Wed
night. Highs Wed will be largely dependent upon timing of the
front/rain with a faster FROPA allowing for warmer temps in interior
portions of the FA. For now, have highs mainly in the lower 80s
inland (locally mid 80s) and upper 70s along the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.

-Isolated showers/storms are possible Friday.

-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from late this week with
above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides off
the New England coast Wed night into Thu, with onshore flow expected
across the area. Any convection should quickly dissipate Wednesday
evening, with mainly dry wx expected from Wed night through most of
Fri. Temps on Thu are expected to be slightly cooler than they will
be on Wed, with the coolest temps along the coast with the continued
onshore flow. Forecast highs Thu are in the lower 80s inland with
upper 60s-70s near the bay/Atlantic coast. Thu will likely remain
dry.

High pressure moves farther offshore from Friday through the weekend
while the ridge aloft slowly breaks down. Low pressure tracking well
to our NW will drag a cold front toward the area this weekend, which
will result in increased chances for showers/tstms. A prefrontal
trough may spark some showers/storms Fri aftn/evening with 15-30%
PoPs. At this time, it looks like the best chance of storms is on
Saturday with lingering precip chances on Sunday as the front may
stall near/over the area. Temps remain above normal through the
weekend (but not as warm as they will be tomorrow/Tue).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period with mainly
clear skies outside of some cirrus overnight and a few fair
weather CU this afternoon. Clouds clear again Mon evening with
some cirrus moving back in from the W late Mon night. SW winds
will generally average 5-10 kt tonight (slightly higher near the
coast). Winds increase to ~10 kt later this morning with a few
15-20 kt gusts expected across SE terminals from late morning
through the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Monday night through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a
slight chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher
(~30%) chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on
Wednesday at all of the terminals. Very brief flight
restrictions are likely in any tstm. Dry Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered off of the Carolinas.
Winds are generally out of the SW and running around 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet out 20 nm), and
waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at the
mouth). High pressure will remain centered close to its current
location through today before gradually sliding further off the
southeast US coast on Tuesday. Winds will continue to average around
5 to 15 knots out of the SW today through tonight. A cold front
approaches the waters later Tuesday, crossing the waters Wednesday
morning. S to SW winds will increase slightly ahead of the front
(~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters)
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, but are expected to remain
sub-SCA. Seas increase due to the stronger S winds, with seas
approaching 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape Charles
Light. Winds shift to the W and then NNW behind the front Wednesday
morning and seas will quickly diminish. Generally light onshore flow
is then expected later Wednesday into Friday. Another front
potentially approaches the waters late week into this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

         4/29 4/30
RIC    94/1974  93/1974
ORF    92/1974  93/1988
SBY    89/1974  86/2017
ECG    90/1974  90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...