Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210204 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1004 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary slips south across the area tonight, then returns as a warm front Monday night. A more pronounced cold front will cross the area Wednesday...then A period of dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday... A few showers/tstms are dropping SE over the Piedmont this evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy with a light S breeze with temperatures in the 70s. A weak frontal boundary w/ limited support aloft will be slipping SE through the local area overnight. Expecting additional/ISO SHRAS-tstms to occasionally develop and move ESE overnight. Will have PoPs ~20% along w/ VRB clouds- becoming mostly cloudy. Winds will turn from WSW to N after midnight/late. Lows mainly 65-70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday... On Mon, will see some weak onshore NE flow develop for awhile along the coast. By aftn as the flow aloft shifts from the W to the WSW...expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next approaching systems from the S and W. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy w/ PoPs by afternoon rising to 30-50% (far) WSW tier counties...while remaining aob 15% toward the ern shore. Highs in the 70s at the coast to the l80s inland. Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w/ possible SCT SHRAS-tstms)...and will have 30-50% PoPs all areas. Sfc hi pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue while lo pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest-OH Valley. VRB clouds-partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs (20-40%) (Tue) ahead of that system, but PoPs have been increased later in the day NNW locations. Lows Mon night in the u50s-l60s on the lower MD ern shore to the m60s elsewhere. Highs Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland. A more pronounced cold front crosses the area (late) Tue night through Wed accompanied by at least SCT SHRAS/tstms. Will have PoPs mainly 30-40%...w/ highs from the 70s-around 80F at the coast to the m80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Any lingering showers/t-storms move south of the area by Thursday morning as a cold front passes through VA and NC. Behind the cold front, sfc high pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic region Thu-Fri. This will give us a short break from the rain. Moisture starts to stream northward next weekend as southerly flow returns to the region. Therefore, rain is in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. Expect isolated-scattered afternoon showers/t-storms on Saturday with more widespread showers/t-storms returning Sunday through Memorial Day. Currently have slight chc PoPs Sat PM-Sun AM with PoPs increasing to ~40% Sunday afternoon through Monday. Highs in the low 80s inland/upper 70s in coastal areas on Thursday. Warmer with highs in the mid-upper 80s expected Friday through Sunday. Lows in the low-mid 60s on Fri/Sat morning increasing to ~70 on Sun/Mon AM. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday... A weak front is approaching from the N this evening. A few showers/tstms have developed ahead of the boundary. As of 00z, one area is located NW of RIC and the other is NNE of SBY. The latest trends do not indicate a direct impact at either terminal. A low probability (~20%) for showers/tstms will continue through 06-08z as the front drops through the region. The wind will be SSW 5-10kt ahead of the front, and then shift to NE behind the boundary, and E/SE by Monday aftn. Patchy IFR/MVFR stratus is possible a few hours either side of 12z Monday morning. The front becomes located from the VA Piedmont to NE NC Monday aftn. PoPs for showers/tstms Monday aftn/evening are 30-40% for ECG, ~15% for RIC/PHF/ORF, and <10% for SBY. The boundary returns N as a warm front across the local area Monday night/early Tuesday with a potential for showers and isolated tstms (PoP 20-50%), and lower cigs. Aftn/evening showers/tstms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A moist airmass will remain over the region and a potential will exist for patchy early morning fog and/or stratus. High pressure may build in from the N by Thursday and Friday bringing mainly VFR conditions during end the week. && .MARINE...
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As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday... SCA for northern coastal waters has been cancelled with seas below 5 ft. Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary will drop into northern portions of the region overnight and slowly drops south through the day on Monday. Winds become E/NE on Monday and are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet on Monday. The boundary moves back north of the region Tuesday turning the winds back to the S/SW at around 5 to 15 knots into Wednesday morning. Another cold front moves through the region Wednesday turning the winds northerly Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds and seas are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through much of the week.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday... Flood warnings have been cancelled for Farmville. Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River basins. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .CLIMATE... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.51" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJB/JDM HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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