Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 181351
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
951 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves across the southern states through this
afternoon. Low pressure and associated warm front tracks north
of the area tonight. Gusty west winds will accompany a cold
front that will move across the region Thursday morning. Dry
weather with below normal temperatures continue into this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak frontal boundary remains just S of the FA attm w/ weak
sfc hi pres stretching from the Delmarva NW to the Great Lakes.
Winds mainly from the ENE aob 10 kt...while BKN mid clouds
showing signs of slowly dissipating. WAA through this afternoon
translates from aloft to the sfc as sfc winds slowly shift from
onshore to SSW. Remaining cool at the ocean/bay w/ highs from
the m50s-l60s while readings inland rise into the u60s-m70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Potent s/w tracks east across Ohio this evening then across Pa after
midnight. The associated warm front lifts north to near the Mason-
Dixon line after midnight with the trailing cold frontmoving east
of the mts around 12Z. Data continues to support any pcpn staying
along and north of the low/warm front with little if any moisture
to the south. Thus, expect tonight to stay dry through 12Z with any
shwr activity remaining north of DOV-EZF-CHO. Mild with lows upr 40s
across the lwr MD ern shore to upr 50s ne NC zones.

Low pressure moves across Long Island Thurs morning then into srn
New England by the aftrn. The trailing cold front pushes across the
local area in the morning. Boundary comes through dry, except for an
isltd shwr across the lwr MD ern shore btwn 12Z-18Z. Rapid pressure
rises will result in the development of gusty west winds along with
a push of dry air (falling dew point temps) in the aftrn. Partly to
mostly sunny and becoming windy with gusts 30-40 mph. Highs low-mid
60s north, upr 60s-lwr 70s south. These conditions result in a critical
fire weather day. See fire weather section below.

Seems winter just won`t give up as another Canadian airmass overspreads
the region from the NW Thu night and Fri. Will still have some winds
Thurs night but the latest guidance suggests winds lighten up late
across the Piedmont allowing temps to drop to near freezing again. Not
looking at any frost, but a light freeze is possible across the far nwrn
zones. Lows lwr 30s NW to near 40 SE. Mostly sunny/breezy and cool Friday.
Highs in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Mostly clr Friday night. No freeze expected
but frost will be possible across the wrn half of the fa given lighter
winds and higher dew point temps. Lows mid 30s west to mid 40s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather with below average temperatures expected through the
bulk of the extended period. 17/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC are in agreement
that sfc high pressure remains anchored to the N/NW through Monday.
At the same time, a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn
Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances return by the middle of
next week as that same area of low pressure tracks northeastward up
the Atlantic coast. Have introduced slight chc PoPs north/chance PoPs
south Tue night-Wed.

Highs in the low 60s on Saturday warming to mid-upper 60s Sun-Tue
from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with
upper 50s on Saturday warming to low-mid 60s Sun-Tue. Lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with SCT-BKN mid-high level cloudiness through
00Z. Light winds shift to the S/SW at 10-15 kt during the aftn.
SCT clouds tonight but added LLWS across the sern TAF sites
after 06Z per latest guidance.

Outlook:
VFR conditions continue through Sat. A cold front will cross the
region on Thursday accompanied by SCT-BKN clouds and gusty WSW winds
shifting to the WNW. Potential for wind gusts to 30 kt Thu from late
morning through the aftn. VFR/dry with winds from the NW on Fri,
shifting to the N to NE on Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of high pressure slides east across the fa this morning,
with variable winds mainly blo 10 kt. The ridge of high pressure
slides offshore late in the day as low pressure approaches from the
west. This will allow the pressure gradient to increase over the
waters, with SE winds increasing up to ~15 kt this evening. Winds
further increase overnight, up to 15-20 kt with a SCA now in effect
over the Bay. Aforementioned sfc low drags a strong cold front
through the area Thu, leading to SCA conditions over all wtrs. Gusts
up to 30 kt psbl over the Bay and ocean, where seas will reach 5-6
ft. Marine conditions then slowly improve Thu night into Fri, and
especially over the weekend, as high pressure builds in from the
west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns today but confidence remains high enough
to continue the Fire WX Watch for most of VA zones for Thu for min
RH values of 25-30% and strong gusty west winds of 20-25 mph with
higher gusts. The fine fuels have dried out to between 10-12% despite
the cooler temperatures we had Tuesday.

With little to no rain in the forecast over the next 48 hrs and with
the frontal passage Thu, pattern looks favorable given the time of
year, and the typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as
the downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures.

Left VA Beach, the VA eastern shore, and MD eastern shore out
of the watch with forecast min RH values staying above 30% but
re-issued the SPS/fire Danger Statement for the VA zones (MD is
lowest confidence at this time given potential for more clouds
and cooler temperatures). For NC, RH criteria is 25%, and especially
closer to the coast the drop in aftn dew pts may not arrive early
enough to see critical fire WX conditions develop, but have also
re-issued an SPS for increased fire danger for all of NC except
the NC Outer Banks. For the zones in the watch, expect the day
shift to monitor trends and re-assess the need for an upgrade to
a Red Flag Warning or just an SPS/increased fire danger statement.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flood warning for Meherrin River at Lawrenceville has been
cancelled as it fell below flood stage Tues evening. River flood
warnings remain in effect for the James River at Bremo Bluff,
Westham and Richmond Locks. See FLSAKQ for details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>097-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS/JAO
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...



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