Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250802 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather is expected through today under the influence of high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend, mainly in the form of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Early morning analysis reveals ~1022+ surface high pressure now in place along and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. Old frontal boundary in the process of washing out from SC into the deep south this morning. Slightly warmer today, as thicknesses increase slightly on light S-SW w/ the surface high shifting further offshore. CONShort...MOS and local thickness tool in good agreement supporting highs into the mid to upper 80s (upr 70s/low immediate coast). Mainly clear once again tonight. Some patchy fog once again possible along the SE coastal plain late. Otherwise, slightly milder and a bit more muggy. Lows mainly in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Outlook for the weekend will key on disturbance near the Yucatan/Western Caribbean. Models continue to have issues with respect to timing the upper trough digging south from the western Great lakes toward the western Gulf of Mexico, and the resultant ejecting surface wave into the eastern Gulf on Sunday. However, regardless of the fine details, weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will gradually integrate more moisture back toward the region, as numerous shortwaves shunt the deep tropical moisture feed over the West Caribbean north across the deep south and toward the local area. PW values increase to 1.75-2" once again over the piedmont into the Delmarva Saturday night/Sunday. This will result in a gradual increase in humidity locally through the day Saturday, due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Still a few model cycles away from getting details hammered out, but given the heavy rainfall of only 5 to 7 days ago, will need to be on guard for locally heavy rainfall potential during this period, especially over the northern half of the area with a quasi-stationary boundary lingering just to the north. Not quite as warm but noticeably more humid each day over the weekend. Highs Sat/Sun in the mid 80s, except slightly cooler immediate coast. Lows from the mid 60s to low 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Still much uncertainty with both the track and amount of moisture associated with any tropical system from the end of the Holiday weekend into the middle of next week. Both the GFS/ECMWF stall the system over the Gulf coast states but differ on the amount of moisture making it this far north. 00z ECMWF/ECS keeps the deepest moisture south/southeast, due to retrograding the upper low over the TN Valley. Meanwhile the 00z GFS shows periodic Atlantic and tropical moisture drifting north along a stalled boundary across the region. Upshot will be to keep pops in each day, highest across the south and thunder chances mainly during the aftn/eve Mon/Tue. Pops cont Wed/Thu as the tropical moisture gets caught in the westerlies and tracks ENE. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows mid 60s- lwr 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Mainly clear sky across area terminals through the 06Z TAF period with light S-SW winds. Some patchy fog issues across SE coastal areas, specifically at PHF/ECG this morning. Visibilities in the vicinity of both terminals will bounce around between MVFR and LIFR through sunrise before quickly scouring out. Winds generally 10 kts or less, except at KSBY, where winds will be in the 10-15 kt range. OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each afternoon/evening from Sat-Mon. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible in/around tstms. && .MARINE...
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As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered just off the coast. The high slides farther offshore today, allowing for southerly flow to develop, mainly 10-15 kt, with 1-2 ft waves/seas. Similar pattern into the weekend with high pressure offshore. Seas build up to 3-4 ft by Sat/Sat night as sly flow continues. Wind speeds aob 15 kt through this period. Sub-SCA conditions continue into early next week.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Flood warning for the Appomattox at Mattoax has been cancelled, as have river flood warnings on the Mattaponi and Kerr Lake. Despite a few scattered road closures that remain per VDOT, river Levels have dropped below flood stage. A flood warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River at Sebrell as the river will crest just above minor stage this evening or tonight. See FLWAKQ and FLSAKQ for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Levels should reach action stage at Bishops Head Friday night due to the south channeling.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...MPR/MAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MPR HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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