Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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517 FXUS61 KAKQ 240734 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks the local area today through tonight...then will be slow to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday... Broad area of sfc lo pres located from ern TN to SE GA/SC attm...w/ upper level lo pres invof wrn KY/TN. These two features will be organizing into lo pres sfc-aloft by later today over the wrn Carolinas...spreading moisture NNE into the local area. Expecting an area of RA to be pushing into central/SE areas this morning...then farther to the NE over the rest of the FA this afternoon. PoPs increasing to 60-100% SW-NE through the day...QPF today averaging about 1" inland from the coast...up 0.50-0.75" at the immediate coast (through less than 0.25" on most of the ern shore). Highs from the u50s-m60s. Along w/ the RA...ESE winds will become gusty to 25-35 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday... Surface low will move to the coastal plain in SE VA-NE NC tonight...w/ main axis of RA shifting to the N (after this eve). PoPs lowering to 20-50% most areas after midnight...though remaining 50-70% on the lower MD ern shore until late. Trough aloft slowly tracks across the FA Wed resulting in VRB clouds- mostly cloudy conditions w/ continuing 30-60% PoPs (SHRAS). Lows tonight in the l50s NW to the u50s SE. Highs Wed from the u60s NW to the l70s SE. Lingering clouds...20-30% PoP Wed eve then drying out thereafter Wed night. Models showing a dry/mild day Thu...though increasing clouds possible from the SW in the afternoon ahead of developing lo pres invof lower MS Valley. Lows Wed night from the m40s NW to the l50s SE. Highs Thu from the u60s to l70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday... A couple of s/w`s progged to round the base of the long wave trof and pass across the srn Mid Atlantic states. Models differ a bit with the first system late Thurs night and Fri. GFS wetter and a bit farther north while the ECMWF has a more southerly track with the best lift across the Carolinas. Will split the difference and go with chc showers for now. Second one appears to be along a weak frontal passage Sat. Limited moisture noted here so went with slight chc late day pops for now. High pressure builds into the area from the NW Sun into Mon. Highs mid 60s to lwr 70s except upr 60s to mid 70s Mon. Lows mid 40s to lwr 50s except 50 to 55 Mon. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions starting out but expecting lower CIGS through this morning into this afternoon (through MVFR then IFR by later today) as RA pushes across the FA. Steadiest RA expected from about 13Z-22Z...lastly at SBY. Gusty SE winds to 20-30 kt...highest near the coast...and models show LLWS at 020 ft (btwn 40-50 KTS) at ORF/PHF/ECG after 18Z as a warm front tries to lift north. Reduced CIGS/VSBYS in occasion -RA/FG through tonight. Flight restrictions will likely last through ~13-16z/25 before conditions slowly improve during the day. Winds decrease after 00Z/25 Wed. Mainly VFR conditions late Wed through Thu. Another round of flight restrictions due to lower CIGs and SHRAS by late Thu night through Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... High pressure centered over southern New England this afternoon will push further out to sea tonight and Tuesday. Meanwhile...low pressure slowly crosses the TN Valley, with a secondary low developing along the NC Coast late Tuesday. East winds 10-15 kt this afternoon will continue through tonight. Waves on the Bay build to 2- 3 ft tonight; seas 2-3 ft this afternoon build to 3-4 ft north and 4- 6 ft south by late tonight. East to southeast winds ramp up quickly on Tues due to a tightening of the pressure gradient. Wind speeds 15- 25 kt with gust up to 30 kt. There could be a few gusts to 35 kt across the southern waters nearest the coastal low. However, not expecting 35+kt winds to be widespread enough to warrant a Gale Warning. Seas are expected to reach 6-10 ft by Tues evening; waves 3- 5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Winds/waves/seas diminish/subside Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. SCAs are currently in effect for all local waters beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday. SCAs will last into Wednesday for the coastal waters due to seas remaining elevated. Have also issued a High Surf Advisory for OBX Currituck as nearshore waves expected to reach 8-10 ft. Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. Seas over the coastal waters should fall below 5 ft Thursday morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...JDM

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