Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201935 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into and over the region through the weekend. Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast Monday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Friday... Rather benign, quiet wx pattern across the eastern third of the CONUS. 1036+ mb cool high pressure continues to nudge east from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Aloft, a broad upper ridge was noted building east of the Mississippi River Valley behind ejecting New England/Atlantic Canada upper trough. Meanwhile to the west, early aftn satellite showing deepening upper level low spinning over the Four Corners region toward the southern High Plains. Clear and cold again tonight with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to arnd 40. No frost/freeze headlines necessary, but could see some patchy frost developing after 06z/2 AM EDT tonight in traditional cool spots out in the piedmont and NNW of SBY. Will go ahead and note this potential in the HWO once again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Friday... Cool high pressure builds in from the NW early in the period, before sliding offshore Sunday into Sunday night. This will bring a mainly clear/sunny day on Saturday, with gradually increasing clouds Sunday afternoon and night. N or NE winds 10 kt or less veer around to the SSE Sunday through Sunday night, bringing gradually moderating temps. Have gone on the high side of guidance given sunny/dry conditions on Saturday, with expected highs in the upper 50s to lower 60 at the coast, mid to upper 60s inland. Mainly clear and not as cold Sat night, with lows mainly in the lower 40s. Gradually increasing clouds but still partly to mostly sunny on average with highs mainly ranging thru the 60s. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50s Monday morning. By Monday morning, next weather system currently over the desert southwest will have pushed east toward the Gulf coast region. Models are in general agreement that the trough will gradually dampen, with the closed low opening up as the upper trough traverses the southern tier of states over the weekend, with a weak inverted trough developing over the southeast into Monday morning. Given the antecedent dry conditions and the slow evolution of this system, have kept Monday dry across the local area, despite increase in cloudiness. May be a few light rain showers possible across the I-85 corridor, but will hold pops at slight chc or less. More clouds than sun will keep temps a few degrees cooler into the low to mid 60s across the SW tier. Otherwise, partly sunny across the northern tier. Rain chances steadily increase Monday night across the Piedmont, with precip spreading NNE into the area into Tuesday morning. Lows mainly in the upper 40s in the piedmont to low 50s across Se coastal plain.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 500 PM EDT Thursday... The medium range period will begin with a slow moving upper low tracking east from the lower MS Valley to the TN Valley Sun night through early Tue. Upper ridging will be in place across the mid-Atlc through mon night with strong sfc high pressure centered over the NE CONUS, ridging south to off the Delmarva. While some mid/high clouds may affect the local area Sun night/Mon, conditions should remain dry with the possible exception of the far SW counties where a 20% PoP will be maintained Mon aftn/Mon evening. Expect below average temperatures with lows Sun night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Mon 60-65 F most places. By Tue, consensus between the 19/12Z models is for the upper low to slowly weaken to an open wave while moving into the SE CONUS/southern Appalachians. Sfc low pressure along the Gulf coast is progged to move NE up through the SE coastal plain while sfc high pressure retreats well off the NE/mid-Atlc coasts. Still some model timing and strength differences so with the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% to 50% for the bulk of the CWA, genly highest Tue and Tue night. Mainly cloudy so not as cold Mon night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and highs Tue mid 60s SE to around 60 NW (potentially could be cooler than this if it rains all day). Will keep 30-40% chance showers Wed and 20% thu as the eventual evolution of the sfc low shows quite a bit of disagreement amongst the models by this timeframe. Partly/mostly cloudy Wed and thu with highs warming a bit to 65-70 F and lows mainly 50-55 F. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. N/NW winds are still gusting up to 15-20 kt in the TAF sites, but will diminish after 22z to less than 5 kt by 02z tonight. Otherwise, expect SKC through the entire TAF period for all sites. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue through Sun, with high pressure over the region. A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing the next chance for sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Friday... CAA will wane this morning with a NW wind of 15-25kt diminishing to aob 15kt by this aftn. Gale flags for the Bay/ocean S of Cape Charles have expired and been replaced with SCA flags. SCAs for the Rivers continue through 11z and 14z for the remaining marine zones. Seas/waves of 4-7ft/2-4ft will gradually subside through the morning. High pressure builds in from the NW this aftn into tonight. A secondary surge is expected later tonight, but this surge should generally be sub-SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 6-10ft by Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay. Broad low pressure crosses the region Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/MAS MARINE...AJZ

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