Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231740 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 140 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered just off the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast today. Low pressure will track northeast up and along the East Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1152 AM EDT Monday... Update: Increasing clouds, dry and mild this aftn. Nudged Max T up a degree or two just inland. Otherwise, pushed rain chances off a few hours this evening for all except far SW corner. Some Sct showers likely SW of Richmond metro before midnight. Otherwise, rain chances increase overnight sw to ne, as llvl e-se flow sharpens moisture transport after 03z/tonight. Previous discussion: Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered just offshore with ~1007 mb low pressure over TN. The high remains just offshore today allowing for a mainly dry day as the low stays put over the SE states. Some light rain is psbl over far SW areas by mid aftn (20-30%) with no PoPs for the remainder of the fa during the daytime period. High temps range from near 60 along the coast to the upr 60s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Rain overspreads the fa tonight except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take until 12Z Tue morning to reach. Pops ramp up to categorical south of I64 tonight/Tuesday morning, with high end chc to likely pops to the north. Lows tonight upr 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks breezy and wet, courtesy of strong (albeit slightly weakening) onshore flow and upper forcing. Still appears enough lift/moisture for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Event total qpf 1-2". Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se. Drier, albeit with lingering clouds for Wednesday. Slightly warmer with some peeks of sun likely. Still enough remnant low to mid level moisture for a few showers, so will maintain chc shower wording. Highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... A fast moving shortwave is forecast to track from Georgia to ern North Carolina Thursday-Friday AM. 22/12z GFS has 999mb sfc low pressure centered over SE VA at 12z Friday with around 1 inch of QPF over much of the CWA. The most recent 12z ECMWF has a much weaker low pressure system centered around 150 miles to the southeast with less than a quarter inch of QPF confined to SE VA/NE NC. Kept PoPs between 25-35% with the highest values in the southeastern CWA given the differences between the guidance. Highs in the upper 60s on the Ern Shore/low 70s elsewhere Thu-Fri. A more potent mid-level shortwave is still forecast to track over the northeastern US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as a cold front passes through the region. Once again, there are differences between the guidance regarding the strength and timing of the storm system. Therefore, have carried slight chc/chance PoPs from Friday through 00z Saturday. Highs in the mid-upper 60s Saturday warming to around 70 on Sunday. Lows in the mid 40s to around 50 next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions to begin the 18Z TAF period, with bkn to ovc high and mid level cloudiness ahead of the system apprchg from the sw. E-SE 10-15 kt this aftn will diminish this evening, before increasing early Tue morning. BKN-OVC mid to high cloud deck will eventually lower late this afternoon and evening as rain approaches from the sw. Deteriorating conditions after 06z tonight, w/rain chances increase during the overnight period as well as cigs lowering into the MVFR range after midnight, first across RIC/ECG, eventually reaching PHF/ORF later tue morning, then SBY by midday Tuesday. Broad swath of rain pushes across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, with flight restrictions throughout the day at all terminals. Restrictions will likely last through ~15-18z Wed before conditions slowly improve during the day. East winds increase to between 15-20 kt (gusts to ~25 kt) at ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG during Tue and last through 00Z Wed. Slightly lower winds (E at 10-15 kt) expected at RIC during this timeframe. Winds decrease after 00z Wed and turn to the SW by Wed afternoon. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... High pressure centered off the Delmarva will drift offshore today resulting in a continued SE flow of 5-15 kt. Waves/seas will persist between 1- 2 ft for most of today. Seas and waves will likely build some late this afternoon to a solid 2 ft across the lower Bay and up to 3 ft over the coastal waters south of cape Charles as winds increase to 15 kt late this afternoon. Winds and waves increase significantly overnight tonight into Tue and SCAs are already in effect for this period. Low pressure over tennessee will slowly push east with a secondary low developing along the Carolina coast Tuesday. This will result in increasing onshore flow from the SE. Winds increase quickly to 15-25kt mid morning Tuesday increasing more through the afternoon. Rain will limit deep mixing which should help to limit winds to 30 kt or less, however, during the period of strongest pressure falls late Tue afternoon into Tue evening some winds gusts to 35 kt are possible across the lower bay and coastal waters from Cape Charles south. Seas and waves will build quickly in the onshore flow with seas 5-9 ft off the coast and 4-6 ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in the Bay). Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. Seas over the coastal waters may remain elevated (greater than 5 ft) through Wed. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ630-631-633. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...MAS/MAM MARINE...JAO

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