Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181940 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 340 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves across the southern states through this afternoon. Low pressure and associated warm front tracks north of the area tonight. Gusty west winds will accompany a cold front that will move across the region Thursday morning. Dry weather with below normal temperatures continue into this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Nice warming thus far this afternoon as winds have become SSW (thought still hanging onto ESE winds invof coastal SE VA-coastal NE NC. Warm front will be N of the area overnight...resulting in a much warmer night than the past couple. Lo pres will be tracking through the OH Valley...pushing it cold front to/just across the mountains late. starting out mainly SKC this eve...then turning partly cloudy...esp after midnight. Lows will be from around 50F on the ern shore to ranging through the 50s most other locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Potent s/w aloft tracks by just N of the FA Thu morning...w/ a cold front pushing quickly E through the local area. Expected development of gusty W winds (to 30-40 mph) Thu along w/ a substantial push of dry air (midday-afternoon) into the region. Narrow band of moisture ahead of/along the cold front shifts to the coastal plain by late Thu morning then offshore thereafter. Best uvm for pcpn will remain N of the local area...though cannot rule out an ISOLD SHRA just about anywhere. Otherwise...partly- mostly sunny Thu w/ from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore and over the NW piedmont to the u60s-l70s in central VA to SE VA- NE NC. Dry/cool wx Thu night-Fri as lo pres is slow to exit New England and hi pres only gradually builds into the local area from the NW. Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind Thu night into Fri...lastly waning at the coast (Fri afternoon). Winds hanging up Thu night along w/ dry atmosphere (most dew points down in the 20s (around 30F at the coast)...frost should not be a problem. Would not rule out...however...temperatures possibly falling to freezing late at night over a few areas well NW of RIC. Lows Thu night from the l-m30s inland to around 40F SE. Mostly sunny Fri w/ highs mainly 55-60F. Dry/cool wx continues Fri night-Sat as sfc hi pres arrives from the NW. Winds to decouple/become light most places Thu night resulting in another night w/ lows 30-35F inland (possible freeze...esp over the Piedmont) to around 40F (right) at the coast in ern/SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Sat w/ N winds aob 10 mph and highs fropm the m-u50s E to the l60s along-W of I 95. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Quiet weather with below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended period. 17/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC are in agreement that sfc high pressure remains anchored to the N/NW through Monday. At the same time, a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances return by the middle of next week as that same area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Have introduced slight chc PoPs north/chance PoPs south Tue night-Wed. Highs in the low 60s on Saturday warming to mid-upper 60s Sun-Tue from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with upper 50s on Saturday warming to low-mid 60s Sun-Tue. Lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday... Winds have shifted to the S/SW in RIC/PHF/SBY as of 17z this aftn. In ECG/ORF, winds are still out of the E/NE. VFR conditions expected through the entire TAF period. Expect a slight wind shift to the S/SE in all TAF sites by around 23-00z this eve before shifting to the S/SW after 03z tonight. Based on the latest 12z guidance, have included LLWS from 02-04z through most of the overnight hours for all sites except SBY, and from 08z through 13z for SBY. A cold front will cross the region on Thursday accompanied by BKN clouds (6-8k feet) and gusty WSW winds shifting to the WNW. Expect sustained winds of ~20 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt Thu from late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sat. Winds will diminish and shift to the NW by Thu eve. VFR/dry with ~10 kt winds from the NW on Fri, shifting to the N to NE on Sat. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... A weak area of high pressure slides east across the fa this morning, with variable winds mainly blo 10 kt. The ridge of high pressure slides offshore late in the day as low pressure approaches from the west. This will allow the pressure gradient to increase over the waters, with SE winds increasing up to ~15 kt this evening. Winds further increase overnight, up to 15-20 kt with a SCA now in effect over the Bay. Aforementioned sfc low drags a strong cold front through the area Thu, leading to SCA conditions over all wtrs. Gusts up to 30 kt psbl over the Bay and ocean, where seas will reach 5-6 ft. Marine conditions then slowly improve Thu night into Fri, and especially over the weekend, as high pressure builds in from the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday... No fire weather concerns today but confidence remains high enough to continue the Fire WX Watch for most of VA zones for Thu for min RH values of 25-30% and strong gusty west winds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts. The fine fuels have dried out to between 10-12% despite the cooler temperatures we had Tuesday. With little to no rain in the forecast over the next 48 hrs and with the frontal passage Thu, pattern looks favorable given the time of year, and the typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures. Left VA Beach, the VA eastern shore, and MD eastern shore out of the watch with forecast min RH values staying above 30% but re-issued the SPS/fire Danger Statement for the VA zones (MD is lowest confidence at this time given potential for more clouds and cooler temperatures). For NC, RH criteria is 25%, and especially closer to the coast the drop in aftn dew pts may not arrive early enough to see critical fire WX conditions develop, but have also re-issued an SPS for increased fire danger for all of NC except the NC Outer Banks. For the zones in the watch, expect the day shift to monitor trends and re-assess the need for an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning or just an SPS/increased fire danger statement. && .HYDROLOGY... River flood warning for Meherrin River at Lawrenceville has been cancelled as it fell below flood stage Tues evening. River flood warnings remain in effect for the James River at Bremo Bluff, Westham and Richmond Locks. See FLSAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...MAS/JAO FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...

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