Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270723 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure crosses the local area this morning then moves away to the northeast this afternoon. Dry weather is on tap for Saturday and Sunday, although a cold front passing Saturday night may cause a few showers. Warmer weather arrives next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Main area of SHRAS/ISOLD tstms moving to the N of the FAin the next couple of hours. A trailing area of mainly SHRAS will be pushing ENE through central/ern portions of the FA through this (early/mid) morning as lo pres tracks to the NE. Will be tapering PoPs down 50-70% early this morning to 20-40% by mid- late morning. A trough will linger over the FA late this morning through this afternoon. Expecting VRB clouds-mostly cloudy wx w/ additional SHRAS/possible ISOLD tstms redeveloping (w/ enough heating) this afternoon/early this eve. Highs today from around 70F N and NE to the m-u70s across srn/SE VA and NE NC (though m60s at the beaches).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Friday... After VRB clouds/possible eve SHRAS/ISOLD tstms...esp ern portions of the FA...improved conditions tonight and Sat...although do expect a cold front to approach from the NW late Sat afternoon. Clearing overnight tonight...then partly to mostly sunny Sat. Lows tonight from the u40s NW to the m50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly in the m-u70s...except u60s-l70s at the beaches. A potent upper low meanders across the eastern Great Lakes Sat night and will force the weak cold front through the local area. Model consensus continues to showers a period of clouds and possible SHRAS accompanying the cold frontal passage Sat night. Have continued w/ 20-30% PoPs for all but the far SW FA. Lows Sat night from the l40s NW to the l50s SE. Sfc hi pres arrives for Sun in the wake of the cold front. Cooler Sun w/ a bit of a gusty NW wind (esp midday into the afternoon) and sunny to partly cloudy wx. Highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Upper low centered over New England slowly moves offshore Mon/Mon night. This will allow an upper level ridge to build over the eastern third of the country starting on Tuesday. Once the upper ridge arrives, it will be slow to break down. This will set the stage for our warmest stretch of the year so far. No rain/t-storm chances through the extended period. Long range guidance indicates that rain chances return next weekend as the ridge slowly breaks down. Highs around 70 Monday warming to ~80 on Tuesday (with 70s on the Ern Shore). Expect mid 80s in central VA/low 80s over the Ern Shore on Wed/Thu. Cool with lows in the 40s on Mon/Tue. Milder with lows between 55-62 on Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Friday... Area of SHRAS/ISOLD tstms moving by RIC...may clip SBY in the next couple of hours. Will have MVFR-VFR CIGS and VRB VSBYS through about 12-15Z/27 w/ SHRAS/ISOLD tstms. BKN (mainly VFR) CIGS continuing through this afternoon-eve w/ possible SCT SHRAS/ISOLD tstms redeveloping. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Tue (though gusty NW winds to 20 kt expected Sun). && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Thursday... SCA Headlines remain in effect into this evening for southern coastal waters and decided to extend them through Fri aftn farther north. This is marginal and due primarily to long period ESE swell, but general trend is for some increase in easterly flow later tonight and on Fri so think its going to be difficult for the seas to fall below 5 ft. Otherwise, E to SE winds avg 5-10 kt and will increase to 10-15 kt most areas later this evening/overnight. As the low pressure system moves NE and across the VA coastal plain Fri morning and eventually to the Delmarva fri aftn, winds will shift to the SSW. This area of low pressure is not very strong, so winds during this period are only expected to avg 10-15 kt and at this point have not raised any additional SCA headlines other than those over the Ocean. Relatively light winds Sat, then as a cold front crosses the waters Sat night, expect that we will need some SCA headlines over the Bay and possibly the rivers/sound as there will be some cold air advection moving across the area into Sun morning. Winds stay somewhat elevated and another secondary surge is likely Sun night (though Sun-Sun night will probably stay slightly below SCA thresholds). Genly lighter winds Mon-Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ALB MARINE...LKB/TMG

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