Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201901 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary slips south across the area tonight, then returns as a warm front Monday night. A more pronounced cold front will cross the area Wednesday...then A period of dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday... Other than a narrow band of SHRAS extending from just off VA Beach to Bertie Co NC (and an ISOLD pop up invof Chesterfield Co VA)...a much nicer afternoon across the local area as at least periods of sunshine have returned. Despite SW winds...gusty at times to 20-25 mph...dew points have not lowered too much...mainly remaining from the u60s-70s (as temperatures have climed back into the 80s). A weak frontal boundary w/ limited support aloft will be slipping SE through the local area tonight. Expecting additional/SCT SHRAS-tstms to develop over NNW areas early this eve which move ESE overnight. Will have PoPs 20-40% along w/ VRB clouds- becoming mostly cloudy. Winds will turn from WSW to N after midnight/late. Lows mainly 65-70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday... On Mon, will see some weak onshore NE flow develop for awhile along the coast. By aftn as the flow aloft shifts from the W to the WSW...expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next approaching systems from the S and W. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy w/ PoPs by afternoon rising to 30-50% (far) WSW tier counties...while remaining aob 15% toward the ern shore. Highs in the 70s at the coast to the l80s inland. Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w/ possible SCT SHRAS-tstms)...and will have 30-50% PoPs all areas. Sfc hi pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue while lo pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest-OH Valley. VRB clouds-partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs (20-40%) (Tue) ahead of that system, but PoPs have been increased later in the day NNW locations. Lows Mon night in the u50s-l60s on the lower MD ern shore to the m60s elsewhere. Highs Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland. A more pronounced cold front crosses the area (late) Tue night through Wed accompanied by at least SCT SHRAS/tstms. Will have PoPs mainly 30-40%...w/ highs from the 70s-around 80F at the coast to the m80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Any lingering showers/t-storms move south of the area by Thursday morning as a cold front passes through VA and NC. Behind the cold front, sfc high pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic region Thu-Fri. This will give us a short break from the rain. Moisture starts to stream northward next weekend as southerly flow returns to the region. Therefore, rain is in the forecast from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. Expect isolated-scattered afternoon showers/t-storms on Saturday with more widespread showers/t-storms returning Sunday through Memorial Day. Currently have slight chc PoPs Sat PM-Sun AM with PoPs increasing to ~40% Sunday afternoon through Monday. Highs in the low 80s inland/upper 70s in coastal areas on Thursday. Warmer with highs in the mid-upper 80s expected Friday through Sunday. Lows in the low-mid 60s on Fri/Sat morning increasing to ~70 on Sun/Mon AM.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Sunday... A narrow band of SHRAS was found from near coastal SE VA SW to just NW of the wrn tip of the Albemarle Sound attm. Otherwise SCT-BKN CU mainly 3-4kft over the local area w/ SW winds avgg blo 15 kt. There will remain a 15-30% PoP in SE VA/NE NC into ealry this evening. Another area of SCT SHRAS/tstms will be possible as a weak frontal boundary drops tonight-early Mon. Still not really expecting anything widespread but some brief flight restrictions will be possible mainly from 00-06Z/21 N to 06-12Z/21 S. Went w/ lower end MVFR CIGS at all but SBY Mon morning as winds turn NNE. A warm front lifts across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAS (ISOLD tstms) (PoP 20-50%) w/ possible lower CIGS. Aftn/evening showers/tstms willpossible Tue through Wed. A moist airmass will remain over the region and a potential will exist for patchy early morning fog and/or stratus. High pressure may build in from the N by Thu bringing mainly VFR conditions to end the week.
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&& .MARINE... As of 415 AM EDT Sunday... SSW winds were mainly 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt early this morning acrs the waters. Winds will become SW later this morning into this aftn at 5-15 kt. Seas will be 3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island into this evening, where a SCA remains in effect. Waves 1-3 ft this morning, then 1-2 ft by tonight. Another frontal boundary will drop into at least northern portions of the area late tonight into Mon morning, but NE or E winds will remain around 10 kt or less over the northern waters. Thus, am expecting seas to remain between 2-4 ft on Mon, with waves fm 1-2 ft. The frontal boundary lifts back north of the region Mon night into Tue morning, with winds becoming S 5-15 kt during Tue. SW winds 5-15 kt expected late Tue night into Wed morning. A cold front then drops through the region Wed night into Thu morning, with winds turning northerly. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 530 AM EDT Sunday... Flood warnings have been cancelled for Bremo Bluff on the James River, and Rawlings on the Nottoway River. Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River basins. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 415 AM EDT Sunday... A Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM for areas adjacent to the Potomac River on the Northern Neck, and also for the Chesapeake Bay side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore until 11 AM for this morning`s high tide cycle. Water levels will run 1-1.5 ft above normal, resulting in minor tidal flooding at Lewisetta, Bishops Head and Cambridge. && .CLIMATE... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.51" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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