Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192021 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 421 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push out to sea tonight. High pressure will build into and over the region late tonight into Sunday. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast States northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday... Late this aftn, a cold front was moving SE of the NE NC coast, while sfc high pressure was cntrd over the upper midwest. The cold front will push out to sea tonight, while high pressure starts to build twd the area fm the NNW. Gusty NW or N winds will diminish during this evening/early tonight, and the sky will become clear. Should be too dry for frost, but temps are expected to bottom out near 32F over portions of the Piedmont, as winds become light in those areas. Therefore, will have a Freeze warning for NW counties. Low temps will be in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday... Dry/cool wx will prevail on Fri, as low pressure slowly exits into the nrn Atlc, and high pressure gradually builds in fm the NNW. Still hanging on to a breezy NNW wind near the coast. Sunny with highs ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dry wx continues Fri night thru Sun, as sfc high pressure builds down over the region. Clear and cold Fri night with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to arnd 40. Sunny or mostly sunny on Sat with N or NE winds 10 kt or less, and highs ranging fm the upper 50s/near 60 at the coast, to the lower to mid 60s inland/Piedmont. Mostly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold Sat night, with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Partly sunny on Sun with highs mainly ranging thru the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 420 PM EDT Wednesday... Below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended period as surface high pressure slowly moves from the wrn Great Lakes to New England from Sunday through Tuesday. At the same time, a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances return early next week as that same area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Some track/timing differences exist between the 18/12z suite of guidance. GFS brings in the rain late in the day on Monday while the ECMWF holds it off until Tuesday PM and has much less QPF than the GFS. CMC keeps all of the precipitation south of the CWA. Given the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% for the bulk of the CWA from Tue- Wed. Highs in the mid-upper 60s Sun-Wed from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with low 60s Sun-Tue warming to mid 60s by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 40s throughout the CWA on Mon/Tue rising to around 50 Wed AM with the clouds/possible rain. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Cold front was pushing just off the NE NC coast by 300 pm this aftn. SCT to BKN SC and AC were along the front, and behind the front with the cooler air aloft. WNW winds were 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt this aftn. SCT to BKN SC and AC will move off the coast or dissipate early this evening, leaving SKC at the TAF sites for late this evening into Fri aftn. NNW winds will diminish during this evening/early tonight, as high pressure starts to build in fm the NNW. Outlook: VFR conditions will then continue late Fri aftn through Sun, as high pressure builds down over the region. NNW winds arnd 10 kt or less (10-15 kt at the coast) on Fri, then N to NE 10 kt or less on Sat. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Latest weather analysais reveals low pressure now oriented just offshore of the Outer Banks at 18z. The attendant surface cold front now offshore, extending south into the coastal Carolinas. Obs and buoy reports indicating post-frontal surge of NNW winds just pushing across northern portions of the waters this afternoon. Convective gusts to ~40 kt possible with initial surge, quickly leveling off to WNW 15-25kt in post-frontal CAA. Winds then become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for the Bay/ocean. Seas build to 4-6ft later this aftn into tonight, while waves in the Bay remain ~2ft this afternoon, increasing to 3-4ft tonight. Current SCA flags will remain as is, but there will be a few hours of sub- SCA conditions across the southern waters this afternoon before CAA makes it farther south. High pressure builds in from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary surge is expected Friday night, but this surge should generally be sub- SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1025 AM EDT Thursday... WNW winds will gust to 25-35 mph this aftn into early this evening behind a cold front. This pattern looks favorable given the time of year, due to typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures for increased fire concerns. After coordination with the VA fire service, have an Increased Fire Danger Statement (SPS) for this aftn/early this evening over central and eastern VA, as WNW winds become gusty to 25-35 mph and most RH values fall to 25-30%. Also, have an SPS for Increased Fire Danger for all of NE NC except the NC Outer Banks, and for the VA ern shore and VA Beach. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062- 064-067>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

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