Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
440 FXUS61 KAKQ 251906 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure lifts northeast and away from the area this evening and tonight. Weak high pressure returns Thursday. The next area of low pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night through Friday. Dry weather is on tap this weekend and early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... An upper level low is currently centered over the mid-Atlantic region, and is accompanied by scattered showers and a couple of tstms. Pcpn is most extensive across southern/SE VA into NE NC where one or two stronger tstms will be capable of brief rain heavy and small hail thru about sunset. For areas east of I-95 and especially where some peeks of sun have occurred, temps have been able to warm into the low/mid 70s this afternoon. Farther west into the Piedmont, where clouds have been more stubborn to break, temps have remained in the upr 50s to low/mid 60s. By this evening, expecting the upper low overhead to exit northeast and head offshore. It should take with it any lingering showers across eastern areas, so that pcpn ends altogether on the eastern shore by about 03z. Expecting some lingering moisture over far srn/SE areas of the FA into Thu morning for mostly cloudy conditions. Turning out mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... A brief break from the unsettled weather Thursday...although expecting clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as the next area of low pressure tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA. Expect most areas to be dry through the day, although did allow slight chc PoPs over interior NE NC after 21z. Highs Thu mainly 70-75F, except 60s at the beaches. A quick increase in PoPs (to 40-80%) Thu night (after 06z) as low pressure enters the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 20-30% far SW. The low pressure area lifts to the NE of the local area Friday afternoon...however will be keeping 20-30% as a low pressure trough remains invof the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy Friday morning, then some partial sunshine in the afternoon. Lows Thursday night from nr 50 N to the mid 50s S. Highs Friday from the upr 60s NW and along the immediate coast to the low/mid 70s central/southern locales. Improved conditions Friday night and Saturday, although do expect a dry cold front to cross the region Saturday afternoon. Partly to mostly clear during this time. Lows Friday night from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly 70-75, except upr 60s at the beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed. Cool to start, then a warming trend. Lows Sat/Sun nites near 40 nw to near 50 se. Highs Sun in the 60s, mid 60s-lwr 70s Mon. Lows Mon nite mid 40s nw to lwr 50s se. Highs Tues 75-80. Lows Tues nite in the 50s. Highs Wed upr 70s-lwr 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... MVFR CIGS to linger at KRIC/KPHF thru 21z or so before improving. Otherwise, VRB clouds/mostly cloudy the rest of the afternoon. Will continue w/ SCT-Likely SHRAS and there could be ISOLD tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the region from about 18Z/25-00Z/26. Have included TEMPO groups at PHF/ORF?ECG to indicate highest confidence in SHRAs, from about 20-23z. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as low pres finally moves away to the ENE. VFR conditions expected Thu as weak hi pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the region by late Thu night into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Sun.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday... Fog has lifted across the Bay and rivers and is improving over the Ocean from Parramore Island and points north. Updated to allow dense FG advisory to expire, though will mentions 1-3NM vsbys this aftn N a of Parramore Island. SCA remains in effect for the ocean into Thu with lingering long period swell of 10-12 sec. Also have extended through 4pm for the mouth of the Bay for 4 ft waves. Waves 1-2 ft or less for the rest of the Bay/rivers/sound. Broad low pressure was cntrd over south central VA late this morning. This low will continue to lift NE and acrs ern VA, the Delmarva, and into New Jersey this aftn through tonight. SSW 5-15 kt during today (genly <10 kt over the Bay and rivers), then become W then NW 10-15 kt throughout the marine area later tonight into Thu morning. The low will move farther away to the NE later tonight into Thu, as weak high pressure builds in fm the NNW. Waves/seas will subside later today thru Thu. Another low pressure area will affect the waters Thu night thru Fri, as it tracks fm the SE U.S. northeast acrs VA and into New Jersey. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...LKB/TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.