Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231948 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered just off the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure will track across the Tennessee Valley tonight, eventually lifting northeast up and along the Carolina coast Tuesday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1031+ mb high pressure centered just offshore of the northeast/New England coast. To the west, closed upper low continues to gradually weaken as it drifts E-NE across the mid-south toward the Ohio River Valley. A ~1010 mb low pressure W TN/SW KY. Pressure gradient continues to tighten between these to features, and we`re noting some breezy conditions on E-SE flow this afternoon. Regional radar mosaic showing broad swath of light showers, owing to a narrow zone of increasing moisture flux/PW ahead of TN Valley system. To this point, dry low-levels have kept a lid on pops across the local area. However, have allowed for some low pops this evening well inland, as better lift/moisture begins to nudge up into our SW zones. Temperatures in the u60s to l70s have stabilized with overcast mid-high clouds pushing in from the Carolinas, and temps should slowly drop off into this evening. As upper low trundles east tonight, favorable low-level moisture-transport axis nudges closer to the local area after 06z into Tuesday morning. This will result in showers becoming more widespread late tonight across the local area from sw to ne, eventually reaching the northern neck and eastern shore into Tuesday morning. Pops ramp up to categorical south of I64 tonight/Tuesday morning, with high end chc to likely pops to the north. Lows tonight upr 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks breezy and wet, courtesy of strong (albeit slightly weakening) onshore flow and upper forcing. Still appears enough lift/moisture for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with greatest concern closest to best moisture flux/PW along coastal SE VA and NE NC. Longer-duration stratiform rainfall should keep instability to a minimum, and thus concern for late-day t-storms is relatively low, even as warm front lifts across SE tier of counties tomorrow afternoon. That said, some convectively-driven heavy rainfall/gusty winds are a concern late tomorrow afternoon and evening, and will note this potential in the HWO. Event total qpf 1-2". Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Surface low will slide across NE NC/SE VA coastal plain Tuesday night, with pcpn briefly tapering off as drier air nudges in from the SE. Will maintain shower wording overnight (categorical to likely across the north), as the upper low opens up and continues to slowly lift across the Mid-Atlantic region. Mainly cloudy and mild with early morning low temps from upper 50s to low 60s. Drier, albeit with lingering clouds for Wednesday. The weakening upper low lifts across the northeast, as a northern stream shortwave drops in from the eastern Great Lakes. Certainly not another washout of a day, but there should be enough remnant lift/moisture present to maintain shower wording, likely across the north. Slightly milder with highs back into the u60s to low 70s. Drying out Wednesday night and Thursday. Could sneak out a few afternoon showers across the SE, as yet another southern stream shortwave drops across the TN Valley. Majority of shower activity should hold off until Friday, but a slight chance for showers has been included for now across the southern tier of the local area per decent model agreement. Highs Thursday to range through the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Sunday... A couple of s/w`s progged to round the base of the long wave trof and pass across the srn Mid Atlantic states. Models differ a bit with the first system late Thurs night and Fri. GFS wetter and a bit farther north while the ECMWF has a more southerly track with the best lift across the Carolinas. Will split the difference and go with chc showers for now. Second one appears to be along a weak frontal passage Sat. Limited moisture noted here so went with slight chc late day pops for now. High pressure builds into the area from the NW Sun into Mon. Highs mid 60s to lwr 70s except upr 60s to mid 70s Mon. Lows mid 40s to lwr 50s except 50 to 55 Mon.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 140 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions to begin the 18Z TAF period, with bkn to ovc high and mid level cloudiness ahead of the system approaching from the sw. E-SE 10-15 kt this aftn will diminish this evening, before increasing early Tue morning. BKN-OVC mid to high cloud deck will eventually lower late this afternoon and evening as rain approaches from the sw. Deteriorating conditions after 06z tonight, w/rain chances increase during the overnight period as well as cigs lowering into the MVFR range after midnight, first across RIC/ECG, eventually reaching PHF/ORF later tue morning, then SBY by midday Tuesday. Broad swath of rain pushes across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, with flight restrictions throughout the day at all terminals. Restrictions will likely last through ~15-18z Wed before conditions slowly improve during the day. East winds increase to between 15-20 kt (gusts to ~25 kt) at ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG during Tue and last through 00Z Wed. Slightly lower winds (E at 10-15 kt) expected at RIC during this timeframe. Winds decrease after 00z Wed and turn to the SW by Wed afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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As of 345 PM EDT Monday... High pressure centered over southern New England this afternoon will push further out to sea tonight and Tuesday. Meanwhile...low pressure slowly crosses the TN Valley, with a secondary low developing along the NC Coast late Tuesday. East winds 10-15 kt this afternoon will continue through tonight. Waves on the Bay build to 2- 3 ft tonight; seas 2-3 ft this afternoon build to 3-4 ft north and 4- 6 ft south by late tonight. East to southeast winds ramp up quickly on Tues due to a tightening of the pressure gradient. Wind speeds 15- 25 kt with gust up to 30 kt. There could be a few gusts to 35 kt across the southern waters nearest the coastal low. However, not expecting 35+kt winds to be widespread enough to warrant a Gale Warning. Seas are expected to reach 6-10 ft by Tues evening; waves 3- 5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Winds/waves/seas diminish/subside Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. SCAs are currently in effect for all local waters beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday. SCAs will last into Wednesday for the coastal waters due to seas remaining elevated. Have also issued a High Surf Advisory for OBX Currituck as nearshore waves expected to reach 8-10 ft. Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. Seas over the coastal waters should fall below 5 ft Thursday morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS/MAM MARINE...JDM

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