Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191900 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push off the coast this afternoon. Dry weather with below normal temperatures will prevail Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Thursday... Late this morning, sfc low pressure was just off the New Jersey coast. A cold front extended fm the low SW acrs SE VA and NE NC. A few light showers behind the front were moving thru the VA nrn neck, middle peninsula, and into the Lower MD and VA ern shore. The cold front will push off the coast this aftn, and despite meager moisture fields, there is sufficient forcing associated with a potent mid-level shortwave trough for iso-sct shras over the NE counties thru this aftn. Otherwise, decreasing clouds this aftn with dewpoints dropping quickly behind the front. The low RH and WNW winds gusting up to 25-35 mph will lead to increased fire danger this aftn (see fire wx section below for more info). High temps will range fm the upper 50s to lower 60s far N, to the lower 70s extrm SE VA and NE NC. Winds slowly decrease tonight, under a mostly clear sky. Should be too dry for frost, but temps are expected to bottom out near 32F over portions of the Piedmont where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Low temps in the mid/upr 30s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Dry/cool wx Fri as lo pres is slow to exit New England and hi pres only gradually builds into the local area from the NW. Still hanging on to a gusty NW wind near the coast. Mostly sunny w/ highs mainly 55-60F. Dry/cool wx continues Fri night-Sat as sfc hi pres arrives from the NW. Winds to decouple/become light most places Thu night resulting in another night w/ lows in the mid 30s inland to around 40F near coast in ern/SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Sat w/ N winds aob 10 mph and highs from the u50s E to the l-m60s along-W of I 95. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 PM EDT Wednesday... Below average temperatures expected through the bulk of the extended period as surface high pressure slowly moves from the wrn Great Lakes to New England from Sunday through Tuesday. At the same time, a low pressure system slowly tracks from the srn Plains to the southeastern US. Rain chances return early next week as that same area of low pressure tracks northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Some track/timing differences exist between the 18/12z suite of guidance. GFS brings in the rain late in the day on Monday while the ECMWF holds it off until Tuesday PM and has much less QPF than the GFS. CMC keeps all of the precipitation south of the CWA. Given the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% for the bulk of the CWA from Tue- Wed. Highs in the mid-upper 60s Sun-Wed from Central VA to NE NC. Slightly cooler on the Ern Shore with low 60s Sun-Tue warming to mid 60s by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 40s throughout the CWA on Mon/Tue rising to around 50 Wed AM with the clouds/possible rain. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Included some MVFR cigs solely at KSBY where an increase in low-level moisture is expected this morning. A cold front will then move through the area during the day and bring mid level clouds and gusty W-NW winds. Expect sustained winds of ~20 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt from late morning through afternoon. Kept most TAFs dry for now, with the exception of KSBY (VCSH) where the chances are highest. Outlook: VFR conditions continue through Sat. Winds will diminish and shift to the NW tonight. VFR/dry with ~10 kt winds from the NW on Fri, shifting to the N to NE on Sat. && .MARINE...
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As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Latest weather analysais reveals low pressure now oriented just offshore of the Outer Banks at 18z. The attendant surface cold front now offshore, extending south into the coastal Carolinas. Obs and buoy reports indicating post-frontal surge of NNW winds just pushing across northern portions of the waters this afternoon. Convective gusts to ~40 kt possible with initial surge, quickly leveling off to WNW 15-25kt in post-frontal CAA. Winds then become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for the Bay/ocean. Seas build to 4-6ft later this aftn into tonight, while waves in the Bay remain ~2ft this afternoon, increasing to 3-4ft tonight. Current SCA flags will remain as is, but there will be a few hours of sub- SCA conditions across the southern waters this afternoon before CAA makes it farther south. High pressure builds in from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary surge is expected Friday night, but this surge should generally be sub- SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1025 AM EDT Thursday... WNW winds will gust to 25-35 mph this aftn into early this evening behind a cold front. This pattern looks favorable given the time of year, due to typical lag in the arrival of cold air to the sfc as the downslope offsets the drop in 850 mb temperatures for increased fire concerns. After coordination with the VA fire service, have an Increased Fire Danger Statement (SPS) for this aftn/early this evening over central and eastern VA, as WNW winds become gusty to 25-35 mph and most RH values fall to 25-30%. Also, have an SPS for Increased Fire Danger for all of NE NC except the NC Outer Banks, and for the VA ern shore and VA Beach. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...Freeze Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...ALB/MAS LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...MAS MARINE...AJZ/MAM FIRE WEATHER...

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