000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1206 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue moving through the area today,
pushing southeast of the region by late afternoon. The front
stalls over the southeast states tonight, with low pressure
tracking east northeast and out to sea Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. High pressure will build over the area for late
Monday into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Saturday...

The latest WX analysis indicates a cold front now located from
SE VA down through the central NC/SC and to the eastern Gulf
coast. The flow is nearly zonal/westerly aloft so the front
will remain weak as it pushes off the coast through the aftn.
The airmass in the wake of the weaker initial front is only
modestly drier (dew pts still in the 50s), along with variably
cloudy skies. Along and to the SE of the front, scattered
showers will pass through SE VA and NE NC through about 18Z/2pm
before ending. There is no sfc-based CAPE N of the Albemarle
sound per latest SPC mesoanalysis, but some minimal MU CAPE
(around 250 J/Kg) could briefly lead to a rumble of thunder in
NE NC over the next 2 hrs or so. Temperatures as of 11 am are
mostly in the low-mid 60s, with a few upper 60s in the far SE.
With partial aftn sunshine, highs into the 70-75F look on track
for most of the CWA (with mid/upper 60s along the coast).

Farther upstream, a more significant cold front is approaching
the western slope of the Appalachians (dew pts in the wake of
this front are in the 20s/30s), and this will bring a stronger
shot of CAA tonight into Sun morning, primarily with a significant
drop in dew pts. Mostly clear to partly cloudy this evening,
then becoming partly to mostly cloudy toward Sun morning. Low
temps will drop into the low-mid 40s N to the upper 40s/around
50F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Saturday...

Sun into early Mon morning, a southern stream low pressure
system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states then
off the SE coast, and out to sea. Rain chances begin by mid/late
morning over far southern VA/NE NC, and spread NE through the
aftn. With dew pts quite low as the rain initiates (in the 30s N
to lower 40s S), this will make for a very chilly day where the
rain becomes widespread as a result of column cooling processes.
PoPs during the aftn range from 60-80% over the S/SE, to less
than 20% across the northern tier of the CWA. QPF amounts are
expected to range from 0.25"+ in NE NC to only a few hundredths
or less from metro RIC and pts north. AS noted above,
temperatures will be quite cool, especially if the rain were to
begin early in the morning. For now, the forecast will show
high temperatures from south central/SE VA and NE NC to avg in
the mid 50s, with upper 50s to around 60F to the N (but some
area may barely get out of the lower 50s in the SE and if the
rain stays far enough S, northern zones could reach into the
lower 60s by late aftn).

That system moves out to sea Sunday night, with mainly just chc
PoPs lingering over far SE VA and NE NC Sunday evening, followed
by clearing overnight. The models depict ~1025mb sfc high
pressure centered from east Texas to the mid MS/lower OH Valley
on Monday, ridging E into the local area. Aloft, a weak
trough will be in place, but the sky should be sunny or mostly
sunny across the local area (with a bit more cloud cover across
the far SE). High on Monday will be warmer than Sunday, but
still 5-10F below avg for late April, ranging from the lower-mid
60s near the coast to the upper 60s well inland. With low dew
pts and sfc high pressure becoming centered over the local area
Mon night, expect a clear sky, light winds, and good
radiational cooling conditions. Forecast lows are in the
mid/upper 30s along and west of I-95 to the upper 30s to lower
40s to the east. Would not be surprised to see some of typically
coldest locations in the piedmont from Farmville to Louisa fall
to near freezing. At least patchy frost will be possible over
the western 1/2 of the FA (most likely in the piedmont).


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure over the region Tue morning, will slide offshore
by Tue evening, before another cold front brings a slight or
small chance of showers during Wed. Although it will be very
cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound
nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will push
out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the
area for Thu. The high will slide off to the NE or E during Fri.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s Wed. Lows Wed night will
range from the upper 30s to upper 40s (coolest NW). Highs will
range through the 60s Thu, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Expect mainly LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites through this
morning into this aftn, as a cold front with sctd showers and
maybe a tstm will move through the region then off the coast.
CIGs/conditions will improve to VFR from NW to SE this aftn into
this evening, as winds become northerly and start to usher drier
air into the area. VFR conditions expected tonight through Sun
morning.

Outlook: Rain chances return by Sun aftn and continue through
Sun night, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast,
east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary just
SW of the waters early this morning, with a trailing cold front just
off to the W-NW. Winds are out of the E-SE 5-10 kt this morning,
seas 3 to 5 ft (highest north of Parramore Island), waves 1-2 ft.
SCA for seas continues over the northern coastal waters through 10
am.

The warm front lifts across the waters in the next few hours,
veering winds around to the SSW. The previously referenced cold
front then crosses the region by sunrise this morning, with winds
expected to swing around to the W-NW then NNW post-frontal later
this morning. Cold air advection is rather weak, so expect this
surge will be mainly sub- SCA, though a brief period of gusts to 20
kt is likely over the coastal waters and elevated terminals in the
Chesapeake Bay after 12z/8am this morning through midday. Winds
level off this afternoon, averaging ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again tonight, as pressure gradient tightens
due to low pressure crossing to our south as high pressure builds to
the west. High-res models are a bit more robust with cool air surge
late tonight/early Sunday and have therefore added an SCA for the
Bay and lower James River for late this evening into Sunday morning.
This surge is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease
with time Sunday morning, with winds again leveling off ~10-15 kt
by Sunday afternoon.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and into
early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and building seas.
Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly) need SCA over
southern coastal waters south of the VA/NC border by the time we get
into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-
     634-638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM