Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240900 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 500 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push farther south of the Mid-Atlantic region across the Carolinas through this afternoon. Dry weather is expected through Friday under the influence of building surface high pressure. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend, especially by Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Thursday... Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front now oriented south of the local area, extending from W-SE from near Cape Hatteras back into the western Carolinas. Behind the front ~1024mb surface high pressure will build south from the Great Lakes into the Ohio/TN valleys, toward the local area through tonight. This will bring a period of dry weather to the local area through the end of the work week. A degree or two cooler, but a bit more comfortable today. Highs in the low to mid 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Clear and cooler tonight with lows in the 50s. Modest increase in temps on Friday, as thicknesses increase slightly. MOS and local thickness tool support highs into the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 410 AM EDT Thursday... By Friday night into Saturday, we`ll see the southerly flow begin to bring more moisture back to the region as the surface high slides off the coast and the deep tropical moisture feed that is in place from the West Caribbean gets pulled farther north. Models are coming a bit into better agreement with respect to handling of this system currently extending from the Yucatan toward Cuba and the Florida Straights. Model differences continue, with the ECMWF remains a bit farther to the west, with GFS a bit east. Nonetheless, models are trending toward lifting the surface wave north over the weekend, with the developing, broad upper low lifting across the east-central Gulf coast into early next week. This looks to result in another increasing humidity and periods of warm, efficient rainfall occurring through latter half of the holiday weekend. PWs once again nudge back up AOA 1.5 by Saturday morning and remain there through early next week. Expect some showers again mainly in the west Saturday where the southeasterly flow will get a little orographic lift enhancement, along with typical daytime heating to generate some showers in the Piedmont counties. After rain becomes a bit more limited in coverage Saturday evening, the outlook for Sunday looks similar, with periods of rain Sunday afternoon and night. Nudged max temps down by degree or two (and mins Sat night up a degree or two) due to clouds and increasing RH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 500 AM EDT Thursday... Expect diurnally driven rain chances (highest during afternoon/evening) throughout the extended period. Low pressure develops in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on late Sunday and slowly moves N/NE through mid-late next week. This will allow tropical moisture to stream northward toward the region through at least next Wednesday. Showers/tstms start to diminish late Saturday evening but re-develop Sunday afternoon. 23/12z GFS/CMC are hinting that a more organized area of rain will move into SE VA/NE NC Monday morning and last throughout the day. However, the latest 12z ECMWF keeps this area of rain south of the VA/NC border on Monday. For most of central VA (as well as the MD Eastern Shore), expect scattered afternoon showers/tstms on Memorial Day. Went ahead and introduced likely PoPs in the far southeastern CWA on Monday with chance PoPs elsewhere. Scattered showers/tstms will likely continue for the remainder of the extended period, with perhaps lesser coverage in the northern third of the CWA. Have maintained chance PoPs for most of the CWA from Tue-Thu AM with some slight chc PoPs north. Highs in the mid-upper 80s on Sunday/low 80s in coastal areas. Slightly cooler with highs around 80 throughout the CWA on Monday. Temperatures warm back up to the mid 80s (low 80s in coastal areas) on Tuesday-Wednesday. Lows in the upper 60s- lower 70s throughout the extended period.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Thursday... The cold front continues to slip farther south of the area this morning. Drier air will push south behind the front through tonight, with mainly clear sky prevailing through the TAF period. Fog at ECG will diminish over the next few hours and will scour out by 12z. Fog will not be an issue at remaining terminals this morning with the northerly flow and drier air. Winds turn to the E by this evening, but wind speeds should remain 10 kt or less throughout the day. OUTLOOK...Quiet conditions/no flight restrictions Thu night/Fri with high pressure in place and mostly clear/sunny skies. Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible by Sat afternoon/evening. The showers/t-storms will become more numerous on Sunday-Monday with potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front now south of the local area with high pressure over the OH Valley. This will allow for N/NW flow today aob 10 kt, with 1-2 ft waves/seas. The high slides offshore tonight, with winds becoming SEly, then Sly for Fri. Seas build up to 3-4 ft by Sat/Sat night as sly flow continues. Winds speeds below 15 kt through this period. Flow remains out of the south early next week, and will have to watch for any system coming up from the south. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 500 AM EDT Thursday... A flood warning continues for the Appomattox River basin. Mattoax crested at 24.8 ft early Wed morning, just below moderate flood threshold (25 ft). Rains of the past day or so have delayed timing a bit, but expect the river level will slowly drop below flood stage later today. A flood warning has been issued for the Nottoway River at Sebrell as the river should crest just above minor stage. Additional flood warnings continue for portions of the Mattaponi river and for Kerr Lake due to ongoing road closure issues. See FLWAKQ and FLSAKQ for more details.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 215 AM EDT Thursday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ESS/MAM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/MAM MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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