Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261437 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1037 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains offshore through the weekend as a trough of low pressure and several weak disturbances move over the region into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM EDT Saturday... Increasingly moist airmass already taking shape in the form of sct-bkn sc which will grow into cu/tcu with embedded cb`s over the next svrl hours. Radar alrdy showing some light echoes racing ne across the Piedmont. High res data shows convection developing across the west this aftrn in combo of the moist airmass and weak s/w to the north. Lclly hvy downpours will be possible later this aftrn and evening as well. Warm and humid with highs in the mid to upr 80s, cooler at the beaches. PVS DSCN: Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure off the Carolina coast with a cold front across the Midwest. Aloft, there is weak SW flow over the Mid Atlc with a weak ridge off the Southeast coast. Not much in the way of forcing during the daytime, but there will be an increase in moisture profiles in conjunction with weak shortwave energy passing over NW areas where PoPs remain at 60%. SE areas have a lower chance for shras/tstms (slight chance-chance PoPs). Main threat with any tstms will be heavy rain due to fairly weak steering flow and aforementioned moisture/PW increase...included locally heavy rainfall wording over N/NW areas. High temps in the mid/upr 80s. Shras/tstms may last through the evening hrs (especially over northern areas) before slowly diminishing overnight. Low temps mainly in the lwr 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be our predominate weather pattern through Memorial Day. This will result in a continued increase in humidity locally Sunday, due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Monday there are indications that a little deeper feed of sub-tropical moisture will make a run at central/eastern NC and perhaps far southern portions of VA. While locally heavy rain will be possible with the strongest tstms Sun (PWs 1.75-2.00"), the best opportunity for widespread moderate/heavy downpours and potential flooding should hold off until Monday for the aforementioned areas as a more pronounced area of sub-tropical moisture (PWs increasing to 2.0-2.3") arrives. As far as PoPs go, will highest PoPs oriented over NW areas. Likely PoPs (60%) along/north of a line from FVX-FYJ-WAL, lowering to slight chc (20%) over extreme SE VA/NE NC. By Monday, will generally have chc PoPs everywhere (30-50%), but likely PoPs (55-65%) along/south of VA Hwy 58. Temps will remain warm Sun with highs generally in the mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s immediate coast. A bit cooler Monday with increased cloud cover and pcpn chances. Highs in the upr 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... This period to be governed by the moisture and remnant low track of Sub-tropical Storm Alberto. After stalling across the Gulf States Mon, the system is progged to drift slowly ne into the TN valley Tue/Wed with the remnant low pushing ne along or just east of the Applach mts Thu/Fri. Kept low chc pops (20-40%) across the region Mon nite thru Tues nite then increased to high chc pops (40-50%) Wed thru Fri. Highs Tues mid-upr 80s, low-mid 80s Wed/Thu/Fri. Lows mid 60s-lwr 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... VFR to start off the 12Z period. Light S/SW winds this morning will increase and become a bit gusty by midday, but gusts should remain no higher than 15-20 kt. Patchy fog is possible at KPHF/KECG early this morning, but confidence is low so kept out of TAFs. Sct-Bkn Cu today expected to be around 3-5k ft, with some lowering cigs later in the day as rain chances increase over western areas. Included VCSH for RIC/SBY where the best chance for shras/tstms is, late this aftn/evening. OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase through the holiday weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each afternoon/evening through Mon. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible in/around tstms. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... No headlines through the weekend/Mon as SSW winds around the Bermuda hi pres avg aob 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Winds become SE by mid week in advance of any remnant low from Alberto...then SW behind the lows departure. Conditions to remain blo SCA levels. && .CLIMATE... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS/MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS MARINE...ALB/MPR CLIMATE...

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