Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281039 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 639 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heavy rain continues through the day today before the front pushes offshore tonight into early Friday. Winds will become gusty on Friday as we will be in between the departing system and high pressure to the south. Northwesterly flow will allow weak disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next week, so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures will warm well above normal for Easter Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1. Flood Watch remains in effect for southeast VA/northeast NC through this evening where the heaviest rainfall is expected today. 2. Rain ends from west to east this afternoon and evening. Early morning analysis shows an upper low situated near James Bay Canada with a cold front extending down the Appalachians and into the Southeast. The front has slowed on its approach across the mountains this morning, but is expected to pick back up and begin tracking east once again as the morning progresses. Current radar shows batches of heavy rain moving out of central NC and across the eastern two-thirds of our CWA. There is some lightning still occurring in the heaviest cells. Patchy fog has also developed primarily across the portions of our NE NC counties that are closer to the water, including coastal Currituck. Will keep an eye on it in case it gets any denser. Things are generally on track with observed rain totals so far - ~1" across the far northwest and 1-2" for Piedmont/central VA and out towards the Northern Neck. Eastern locations have only seen about a quarter to half an inch so far due to the heavy rain axis not shifting east just yet. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate that this will happen in the next few hours as the surface low across the Carolinas moves northeast and the cold front along the mountains starts picking up forward pace again. As this happens, places west of I-95 will work into the post-frontal environment with rain chances ending and northerly winds becoming breezy, likely by mid to late morning. Richmond may sit on this line for several hours into the afternoon before the rain actually clears totally out. To the east, expect the Hampton Roads/Norfolk/VA Beach metros and north along the Eastern Shore to remain socked in with heavy rain for most of the day. This is when the forecasted rainfall totals of 2-3 inches will occur. Localized flooding will be a concern through the morning rush hour and into the afternoon, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Flood Watch remains in effect for SE VA/NE NC through 8pm tonight - localized advisories/warnings will be issued if/when necessary. The front will move offshore during the later afternoon taking the rain with it. Skies will gradually clear this evening and into the overnight hours. As mentioned, expect northerly winds to become a bit breezy behind the front as it moves east across the CWA. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s inland with lower 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... We will wake up Friday morning to the system moving offshore, leaving us with clearing skies and drier air pushing in. The local area will be in between the low offshore and a surface high pressure building in to the southwest. This will tighten our pressure gradient and create gusty west-northwest winds on Friday. Gusts to 20-25mph will be likely inland with 25-30mph across the coast and along the Eastern Shore. High temperatures will warm up in the mid 60s for most locations, with upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. The southern surface high will slide off the GA/FL coast on Saturday as we fall into northwesterly flow aloft here. This will allow disturbances upstream to have trajectories right towards VA. The first disturbance on Saturday looks to lose a lot of its steam as it comes out of Ohio and crosses the mountains; however, models continue to show some showers making their way into northern VA/lower MD Eastern Shore. Kept low PoPs north of Richmond Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs will warm nicely to almost 10 degrees above normal, reaching the lower 70s along a slight southwesterly breeze. The Eastern Shore will stay in the lower to mid 60s. Clouds will remain overhead Saturday night resulting in mid lows around 50 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Northwesterly flow persists into Sunday ahead of slight ridging building into the MS River Valley area. Another weak disturbance/moisture riding along the ridge will cross the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Models are consistent with showing some rain making it into our CWA late Sunday into Monday. Put a broad chance of rain across the CWA to account for this. Moisture continues to stream along the damp ridge ahead of a strengthening upper level low moving out of the Central Plains. Models have differing resolutions of this low pressure as of now, so exact details are fuzzy. For now, kept a slight chance of rain across the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with the ridging overhead - expecting mid to upper 70s on Easter Sunday, so be sure to break out the sun dresses and linen suits. We will cool slightly to start the new work week as moisture streams into the area, though still forecasting highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 AM EDT Thursday... Poor conditions will persist through most of the TAF period. Terminals are currently bouncing around between LIFR and low-end MVFR as scattered showers and low CIGs pass through this morning. There are even a few flashes of lightning and CBs out there across the SE near ORF and ECG, which will remain a threat through the day. Expecting LIFR conditions at all terminals, except RIC where CIGs should increase after 18-20Z. VIS restrictions to 2-3SM will be likely for most of the day. RIC and points west will start to break out of the heavier rain after mid-day, though RIC will remain on edge of SHRA into the afternoon. Northerly breezes will increase after 15Z with some gusts to 22kt possible. Heavy rain will begin to move offshore after 00Z, with CIGs/VIS improving at terminals from west to east this evening. Expect skies to become mostly clear tonight. Outlook: Northwesterly winds are expected to become gusty areawide on Friday. VFR conditions will prevail Friday and into the weekend, though some light showers are possible across the north on Saturday and for most of the area on Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1. The Gale watches for coastal waters zones N of Cape Charles Light, as well as the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. These go into effect this afternoon. 2. The Gale Watch for the Chesapeake Bay has been cancelled. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued instead. These will go into effect this morning. Early this morning, high pressure is sliding offshore ahead of an approaching front. NE winds are starting to pick up ahead of the front with latest obs showing 10-15kt. A few obs along the southern VA/NE NC coast are showing a few gusts around 20kt. Seas are 4-5ft and waves are around 1ft (2-3ft in mouth of the bay. Later today, secondary cyclogenesis will occur to the south of local waters. The low will then press NE offshore this evening and overnight. The tighter pressure gradient and CAA behind the front and low pressure will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A 40-50kt LLJ and decent mixing over the water will further support the elevated winds. NE winds become northerly this morning, increasing to 15-20kt by late morning. Winds further increase and turn to the NW this evening with widespread 20-25kt expected. Highest winds will be in the southern coastal waters, where 25-30kt is expected. Frequent gusts of around 34kt are expected over the coastal waters. May even see a few gusts approach 40kt early this evening over southern coastal waters. Cannot rule out a few gale-force gusts in the bay, but this is expected to be short in duration. Therefore, decided to go with a SCA instead. These conditions are expected to last through early Friday morning. Seas will build to 5-6ft by the afternoon, then 6- 7ft overnight. Conditions improve on Friday as winds become westerly and high pressure builds in from the SW, though remaining breezy. Winds will be 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt through most of the day, diminishing slightly in the evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to return across all local waters Friday night with winds dropping down to 5- 10kt. High pressure centered to the S shifts offshore Saturday, turning winds to the SW at ~10kt. Benign marine conditions are expected Saturday through the early week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Seeing responses to the rainfall on the rivers out west - North Meherrin in Lunenburg, Appomattox in Farmville, Meherrin near South Hill, and James near Cartersville. As steady rain continues through the day today in addition to the water moving downstream, river forecast points are indicating that action or minor flood stage will be reached across those southern VA/northeast NC rivers within the next 24-36 hours - including Cashie River near Windsor, Meherrin River at Lawrenceville and Emporia, Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the Nottoway River. Northern forecast points may bump into action stage, including along the Appomattox River. Additionally, heavy rainfall may cause areas of land flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Flood Watch remains in effect for SE VA/NE NC through 8pm, with localized advisories and warning being issued if/when needed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ087>090-092-093- 095>098-523>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JKP NEAR TERM...JKP SHORT TERM...JKP LONG TERM...JKP AVIATION...JKP MARINE...AM HYDROLOGY...JKP

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