Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 281039
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
639 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain continues through the day today before the
front pushes offshore tonight into early Friday. Winds will become
gusty on Friday as we will be in between the departing system and
high pressure to the south. Northwesterly flow will allow weak
disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next week,
so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures will warm
well above normal for Easter Weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Flood Watch remains in effect for southeast VA/northeast NC
through this evening where the heaviest rainfall is expected
today.
2. Rain ends from west to east this afternoon and evening.
Early morning analysis shows an upper low situated near James
Bay Canada with a cold front extending down the Appalachians and
into the Southeast. The front has slowed on its approach across
the mountains this morning, but is expected to pick back up and
begin tracking east once again as the morning progresses.
Current radar shows batches of heavy rain moving out of central
NC and across the eastern two-thirds of our CWA. There is some
lightning still occurring in the heaviest cells. Patchy fog has
also developed primarily across the portions of our NE NC
counties that are closer to the water, including coastal
Currituck. Will keep an eye on it in case it gets any denser.
Things are generally on track with observed rain totals so far - ~1"
across the far northwest and 1-2" for Piedmont/central VA and out
towards the Northern Neck. Eastern locations have only seen about a
quarter to half an inch so far due to the heavy rain axis not
shifting east just yet. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate that
this will happen in the next few hours as the surface low across the
Carolinas moves northeast and the cold front along the mountains
starts picking up forward pace again. As this happens, places west
of I-95 will work into the post-frontal environment with rain
chances ending and northerly winds becoming breezy, likely by mid to
late morning. Richmond may sit on this line for several hours into
the afternoon before the rain actually clears totally out. To the
east, expect the Hampton Roads/Norfolk/VA Beach metros and north
along the Eastern Shore to remain socked in with heavy rain for most
of the day. This is when the forecasted rainfall totals of 2-3
inches will occur. Localized flooding will be a concern through the
morning rush hour and into the afternoon, especially in urban and
poor drainage areas. Flood Watch remains in effect for SE VA/NE NC
through 8pm tonight - localized advisories/warnings will be issued
if/when necessary.
The front will move offshore during the later afternoon taking the
rain with it. Skies will gradually clear this evening and into the
overnight hours. As mentioned, expect northerly winds to become a
bit breezy behind the front as it moves east across the CWA. Low
temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s inland with
lower 40s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
We will wake up Friday morning to the system moving offshore,
leaving us with clearing skies and drier air pushing in. The local
area will be in between the low offshore and a surface high
pressure building in to the southwest. This will tighten our
pressure gradient and create gusty west-northwest winds on Friday.
Gusts to 20-25mph will be likely inland with 25-30mph across the
coast and along the Eastern Shore. High temperatures will warm up in
the mid 60s for most locations, with upper 50s to around 60 along
the coast. The southern surface high will slide off the GA/FL coast
on Saturday as we fall into northwesterly flow aloft here. This will
allow disturbances upstream to have trajectories right towards VA.
The first disturbance on Saturday looks to lose a lot of its steam
as it comes out of Ohio and crosses the mountains; however, models
continue to show some showers making their way into northern
VA/lower MD Eastern Shore. Kept low PoPs north of Richmond Saturday
afternoon and evening. Highs will warm nicely to almost 10 degrees
above normal, reaching the lower 70s along a slight southwesterly
breeze. The Eastern Shore will stay in the lower to mid 60s. Clouds
will remain overhead Saturday night resulting in mid lows around 50
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
Northwesterly flow persists into Sunday ahead of slight ridging
building into the MS River Valley area. Another weak
disturbance/moisture riding along the ridge will cross the Ohio
River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Models are
consistent with showing some rain making it into our CWA late Sunday
into Monday. Put a broad chance of rain across the CWA to account
for this. Moisture continues to stream along the damp ridge ahead of
a strengthening upper level low moving out of the Central Plains.
Models have differing resolutions of this low pressure as of now, so
exact details are fuzzy. For now, kept a slight chance of rain
across the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain on the warm
side with the ridging overhead - expecting mid to upper 70s on
Easter Sunday, so be sure to break out the sun dresses and linen
suits. We will cool slightly to start the new work week as moisture
streams into the area, though still forecasting highs in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...
Poor conditions will persist through most of the TAF period.
Terminals are currently bouncing around between LIFR and low-end
MVFR as scattered showers and low CIGs pass through this
morning. There are even a few flashes of lightning and CBs out
there across the SE near ORF and ECG, which will remain a threat
through the day. Expecting LIFR conditions at all terminals,
except RIC where CIGs should increase after 18-20Z. VIS
restrictions to 2-3SM will be likely for most of the day. RIC
and points west will start to break out of the heavier rain
after mid-day, though RIC will remain on edge of SHRA into the
afternoon. Northerly breezes will increase after 15Z with some
gusts to 22kt possible. Heavy rain will begin to move offshore
after 00Z, with CIGs/VIS improving at terminals from west to
east this evening. Expect skies to become mostly clear tonight.
Outlook: Northwesterly winds are expected to become gusty areawide
on Friday. VFR conditions will prevail Friday and into the weekend,
though some light showers are possible across the north on Saturday
and for most of the area on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. The Gale watches for coastal waters zones N of Cape Charles
Light, as well as the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, have been
upgraded to Gale Warnings. These go into effect this afternoon.
2. The Gale Watch for the Chesapeake Bay has been cancelled. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued instead. These will go into effect
this morning.
Early this morning, high pressure is sliding offshore ahead of an
approaching front. NE winds are starting to pick up ahead of the
front with latest obs showing 10-15kt. A few obs along the southern
VA/NE NC coast are showing a few gusts around 20kt. Seas are 4-5ft
and waves are around 1ft (2-3ft in mouth of the bay. Later today,
secondary cyclogenesis will occur to the south of local waters. The
low will then press NE offshore this evening and overnight. The
tighter pressure gradient and CAA behind the front and low pressure
will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A 40-50kt LLJ and decent
mixing over the water will further support the elevated winds. NE
winds become northerly this morning, increasing to 15-20kt by late
morning. Winds further increase and turn to the NW this evening with
widespread 20-25kt expected. Highest winds will be in the southern
coastal waters, where 25-30kt is expected. Frequent gusts of around
34kt are expected over the coastal waters. May even see a few gusts
approach 40kt early this evening over southern coastal waters.
Cannot rule out a few gale-force gusts in the bay, but this is
expected to be short in duration. Therefore, decided to go with a
SCA instead. These conditions are expected to last through early
Friday morning. Seas will build to 5-6ft by the afternoon, then 6-
7ft overnight.
Conditions improve on Friday as winds become westerly and high
pressure builds in from the SW, though remaining breezy. Winds will
be 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt through most of the day, diminishing
slightly in the evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to return
across all local waters Friday night with winds dropping down to 5-
10kt. High pressure centered to the S shifts offshore Saturday,
turning winds to the SW at ~10kt. Benign marine conditions are
expected Saturday through the early week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
Seeing responses to the rainfall on the rivers out west - North
Meherrin in Lunenburg, Appomattox in Farmville, Meherrin near
South Hill, and James near Cartersville. As steady rain
continues through the day today in addition to the water moving
downstream, river forecast points are indicating that action or
minor flood stage will be reached across those southern
VA/northeast NC rivers within the next 24-36 hours - including
Cashie River near Windsor, Meherrin River at Lawrenceville and
Emporia, Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the
Nottoway River. Northern forecast points may bump into action
stage, including along the Appomattox River. Additionally, heavy
rainfall may cause areas of land flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas. Flood Watch remains in effect for
SE VA/NE NC through 8pm, with localized advisories and warning
being issued if/when needed.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ087>090-092-093-
095>098-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
Friday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ633-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...JKP