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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides off the southeast coast today, bringing
dry and very warm conditions to the local area, along with gusty
winds. A backdoor cold front drops through later Monday with
showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This
front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A stronger cold front crosses the area late
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Morning analysis shows high pressure centered from the central Gulf
coast SE to the Florida Peninsula. Aloft, NW/WNW flow is noted over
the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge to our W and a trough offshore.
Skies are clear with generally light winds. Rather chilly across
the area this morning with several readings in the upper 30s and
low 40s.

A disturbance aloft and associated sfc cold front will drop S
through the Great Lakes and into the Mason- Dixon vicinity this
afternoon. This is likely to lead to a subtle increase in high
clouds, along with gusty SW winds (rain/thunderstorms remain
well N/NW of the FA). Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely for
most of the area this afternoon with 30-35 mph gusts possible
over the MD Eastern Shore. While it won`t be as dry as
yesterday, dew points still drop into the lower 40s and perhaps
upper 30s across SE VA and NE NC. Combined w/ temps in the upper
70s and lower 80s, RHs fall to 20-30%. This could lead to
elevated fire wx given the dry day yesterday (see fire wx
discussion below). For temps, highs later this aftn peak in the
lower 80s for most of VA and NC, with mid- upper 70s on the
eastern shore. These values are a good bit above NBM and closer
to the 75th-90th percentiles. Winds remain a tad gusty heading
into tonight, keeping lows warmer and in the upper 50s- low 60s.
A rogue shower or sprinkle could reach some of the far nrn
counties tonight as the front drops closer to the area, but
expecting the vast majority to stay dry.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

The front continues to sag southward on Monday. At this time, the
frontal passage looks to coincide with the afternoon/evening peak
heating. Thus, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
area. Soundings show generally unidirectional WNW-NW flow across the
area and 30-35 kts of bulk shear. Sfc temps warming into the low-mid
80s (upper 70s ern shore) and dew points in the mid-upper 50s
suggest there is likely to be some sfc-based instability.
Additionally, soundings also show rather steep mid-level lapse rates
of 7.5-8 C/km atop a well-mixed/inverted-V low-level sounding
profile. HREF mean SBCAPE ranges from 500-1500 J/kg (highest srn VA
and nrn NC), though instability is lower on the ern shore given
cooler temps. All of this suggests there could be some strong-severe
storms and SPC has introduced a marginal risk of severe wx for most
of our CWA. A threat of hail and strong wind gusts are possible
as storms initially develop over the Piedmont in the afternoon.
CAMs overwhelmingly agree that any initial discrete storms grow
upscale into clusters or a line as storms become more outflow
dominant in the later aftn/evening with damaging wind gusts
becoming favored. Interesting (and rather impressive) to note
that there is a decent signal among the CAMs (HRRR/ARW)
explicitly showing gusts approaching severe criteria. The
tornado threat is very low given straight hodographs, low 0-1km
SRH, and LCLs >1500 m. PoPs were increased into the 30-40% range
for most of the area (20% MD Eastern Shore) and may need to be
increased further in forthcoming fcst packages. Storms should
be clear of the area by 6z/2 AM Tuesday as the front drops S of
the FA and winds turn to the NNE. Overnight lows range from the
lower 50s N to mid/upper 50s S.

Heading into Tuesday, a rather strong sfc cyclone will eject from
the lee of Rockies into the Midwest and deepen below 990 mb. This
will work to slowly push the front from Monday back N as a warm
front. There will be a larger gradient is highs Tue as the front
initially struggles to move N. Highs in the lower 80s are forecast
across the SW and in interior NE NC. For the Piedmont and those
W of the Chesapeake Bay, highs in the upper 70s to around 80
are expected. Onshore flow along the coast will keep those near
the water in the upper 60s-low 70s. It also becomes partly-
mostly cloudy by the afternoon with a thick mid-high cloud deck
streaming in from the W. A few showers are again possible near
the front (mainly S and W of I-64), though the thunderstorm
potential is highly dependent on if any instability can creep N.
Most of guidance keeps the appreciable CAPE just SW of our
area. Lows Tue night in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure continues to lift ENE through the upper Midwest
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into
the southern states. There will tend to be more clouds
Wednesday, though precip chances will be low w/ little forcing
(some slight chc PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the
boundary). Highs in the mid 70s NE, upper 70s for most of VA,
and lower 80s far SE VA and NE NC. Thursday looks to be the
warmest day of the extended period with highs in the 80s for
most of the area (70s across the NE), despite a weak cold front
moving through during the day. Another (stronger) cold front
moves toward the area later Friday into Saturday with a chance
for showers and possibly thunderstorms. PoPs remain on the low
side as most guidance continues to show the front losing most of
its moisture E of the Appalachians. Temps Friday continue to
trend cooler with 70s for most of the area and perhaps in the
60s on the ern shore. Overnight temps will remain on the mild
side and in the 60s Wed night and 50s Thu and Fri night. Temps
trend cooler and below normal behind the front, with highs Sat
in the 60s to around 70F with lows into the 40s Sat night.
Potentially even cooler Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR prevails through the 14/12z period. Light winds early this
morning under a clear sky. SW winds become gusty yet again this
aftn to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt (highest SBY). Mainly
SKC as well with just some higher clouds filtering in from the W.
Southwesterly LLWS is possible at the terminals after 00z Mon,
with the best confidence of this at still being at SBY (where it
remains in the TAF).

Outlook: Dry/VFR through early Monday. W winds Monday shift to
the NE Monday night. SCT showers/storms possible Mon
aftn/evening (best chance RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG) which could produce
heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and hail. There is a lower
chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue night. Isolated showers
persist into Wed, though not expecting flight restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Winds are light out of the west across the marine area early this
morning with a ridge of high pressure overhead. The high shifts to
our SE today, allowing the pressure gradient to tighten...which will
result in an increase in SW winds later today. Sub-SCA winds
continue this morning before speeds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt in the Ches Bay and likely into the adjacent rivers this
afternoon. Have issued SCAs for the bay/rivers starting at 1
PM...and local wind probs remain >80% for 6-12 hours this afternoon
into the early overnight period. Winds also increase on the ocean
(especially N), and a period of 25+ kt gusts is possible this
evening-tonight. Seas are also forecast to build back to 4-5 ft for
the coastal waters north of Parramore Island this evening into early
Monday morning (while remaining 3-4 ft farther south). Have also
issued SCA headlines for these northern two ocean zones as well. SCA
headlines run until 7 PM for the upper rivers, 1 AM for the Lower
James/middle bay, and 4 AM for the Lower Bay/nrn coastal waters.

Winds shift to the W and decrease to 10 kt Monday morning as a
weakening cold front approaches. That front is progged to drop
through the area this evening-tonight, with winds turning to the NE
and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (staying sub-SCA through this
timeframe given that it is a weakening front). Conditions will
generally remain sub-SCA for the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Given the significant drying that occurred across the area
yesterday, fire wx concerns are possible this afternoon with
minimum relative humidities dropping to 20-30% and wind gusts
increasing to 25-30 mph (35 mph MD Eastern Shore). Will continue
to stress that dew pts from models tend to be too high
(sometimes significantly) this time of year in decent mixing
situations. Will be coordinating with state officials later this
morning to determine the potential need for an IFD statement.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
FIRE WEATHER...