-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
801 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight into
Saturday morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast
coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Latest sfc analysis reflects a quasi-stationary front well to the
south of the forecast area with a weak area of low pressure along it
and a cold front just to the west of Appalachia. Aloft, the flow is
nearly zonal over the Mid-Atlantic and a broad trough over the NE
Plains over to the Great Lakes. Given onshore flow at the sfc and
stubborn cloud cover persisting over much of the area, temps have
underperformed so far. Obs north of I-64, which have been under
clouds all day, are showing temps in the 50s as of 2pm obs. Across
the south, where the sun was able to break through, temps have
warmed to either side of 70. Latest radar shows light, widely
scattered showers approaching from the west. These showers, however,
are drying up as they move east.

This evening and overnight, the weak low pressure and front will
press north toward the area. Latest guidance, though, keeps this
system just along the southern border of the FA before it is pushed
out to sea by the approaching cold front. As the front passes
through tonight and into early Saturday, widely scattered showers
are expect across the region. Highest PoPs in the piedmont (40-50%)
will be late this evening, while the highest PoPs along the coast
(40-55%) will be between 2am and sunrise. Instability looks to be in
short supply, so not expecting much in the way of thunder. Cannot
rule out a few rumbles across the south. Not expecting temps to drop
off much tonight given thick cloud cover. Lows will be in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning,
and isolated to perhaps sctd showers will likely linger along the
immediate coast to start the day. We should see at least partial
clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier
air filters in behind the front. Forecast highs are in the low 70s
in the piedmont and upper 60s E of I-95.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps
will drop into the 40s NW to around 50 in the far SE. Sun through
Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move
out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that
rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern
half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds
and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the upper 50s to
around 60. The northwestern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see
highs in the low 60s. Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE
counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will generally be
in the low 40s inland and mid 40s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties early Mon
morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Under a partly to
mostly sunny sky, high temps Mon will range through the 60s (warmest
central and wrn counties). High pressure briefly builds over the
area, then slides offshore during Tue, before another cold front
brings shower chances to the region Wed into Wed evening.
Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s),
temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure
building into/over the area for Thu. Highs range through the 70s
(warmest S) Wed. Lows Wed night range through the 40s (coolest NW).
Highs on Thu mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

Marine airmass continues to linger near the coast this evening
with IFR CIGs (800-900 ft) at ORF/ECG and MVFR CIGs (1000-2000
ft) at PHF/SBY. Elsewhere, conditions are VFR w/ varying CIGs.
Expect clouds/CIGs to lower and become more widespread over the
next few hrs and especially overnight. IFR- LIFR CIGs are likely
at all sites and will tend to persist through at least the mid-
morning hrs, before a cold front moves through the area.
Degraded flight conditions linger the longest Saturday across
the SE, with improvement not expected at ORF/ECG until 18-21z.
Showers are also expected with the front tonight into early
Saturday, but expect these to be widely scattered. Also cannot
rule out a brief tstm, especially at ORF and ECG. Low clouds
slowly clear from NW to SE Sat as winds turn northerly.

Outlook: Rain chances return later Sun into early Mon, as low
pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out
to sea Sun into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

NE winds have become more easterly this afternoon as high
pressure has been building south. Winds are generally 5 to 15
kt across the entire area. Seas are still running 5 ft over the
northern coastal waters and 4 ft from Cape Charles south. The
Bay was around 1 foot with some 2 ft. With 5 ft seas persisting
over the northern waters and another surge expected late tonight
into early Sat, have extended the SCA into Sat morning. SCA
elsewhere have been allowed to expire.

Another cold front drops across the region late tonight (Fri
night) into Saturday morning. High res models have slowed the
timing of the surge more into Saturday morning. Winds swing
around to the NW then NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should
be mainly sub- SCA given weak cool-air advection though a brief
period of gusts to 20 kt is likely on the Bay and ocean. Winds
should decrease some Sat afternoon ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again Saturday night as yet another front
pushes south and again increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20
kt, but look to remain below sub- SCA at this time. This surge
is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease some
later on Sunday.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and
into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and
building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly)
need SCA over southern coastal waters from Cape Charles south by
the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just
below for now.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

-- Changed Discussion --
As of 800 PM EST Friday...

Tidal anomalies remain elevated across the upper portions of the
Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac this evening. Multiple strong flood
tides at the mouth of the Bay followed by weaker ebb tides have
contributed to the higher water levels across the upper Bay.
The most recent flood tide was not as strong compared to the
last few tides, so expect water levels to gradually begin to
diminish later tonight into Saturday morning. Based on the
latest trends, have opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for
locations along the tidal Potomac/Northern Neck and for Bay
facing portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the
potential for minor tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide.
Additional minor tidal flooding will be possible with the
Saturday AM high tide, especially for sensitive locations such
as Bishops Head, MD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...