Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251428 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1028 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks across Virginia today, then moves away from the coast tonight. Weak high pressure returns Thursday. Another area of low pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 555 AM EDT Wednesday... Update for (more) FG...esp invof Hampton Roads through mid morning. VSBYS less than 1/2-3/4 NM. Previous Discussion: Weak sfc lo pres invof wcentral NC attm...tracks slowly ENE through ern VA today. Bulk of the RA from the past 24 hours has lifted N of the local area. Lo CIGS and patchy/areas of -RA/-DZ and FG linger over much of the FA...w/ exception over coastal NE NC. These conditions are expected to last through early/mid morning. Trailing upper level lo pres will slowly cross the area this afternoon...accompanied by SCT- likely SHRAS. Otherwise...VRB clouds-mostly cloudy midday/this afternoon. Models suggest enough instability available as the cold pool aloft enters/crosses the local area (esp srn/se VA-NE NC) for possible (ISOLD) tstms. Highs today from the m60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Lo pres (sfc-aloft) exits the region this eve resulting in lowering PoPs. Will continue w/ trend of lowering PoPs SW-NE this eve...then drying begins overnight. Expecting some lingering moisture over far srn/SE areas of the FA into Thu morning. Lows from around 50F NW to the m50s SE. A brief break from the unsettled wx Thu...though expecting clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as the next area of lo pres tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA. Have held off on raising PoPs above 14% over the (SW portion of the) FA through 00Z/27. Highs Thu mainly 70-75F. A quick increase in PoPs (to 50-80%) Thu night as lo pres enters the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 20-30% SW. The lo pres area lifts to the NE of the local area Fri afternoon...however will be keeping 20-30% as a lo pres trough remains invof the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy then partly sunny Fri...w/ highs from the u60s-around 70F N to the m70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... GFS/ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last in a series of s/w trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any support for pcpn even with the frontal passage Sat. A model blend results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and Sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches. After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue. Cool to start then a warming trend. Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Tue 75-80. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 AM EDT Wednesday... Starting out w/ widespread LIFR/IFR conditions (primarily due to CIGS). Sfc lo pres invof wcentral NC will be tracking slowly NE through ern VA today as an upper level low arrives from the W and crosses the region midday through this eve. Will have continued LIFR/IFR conditions (mainly CIGS) through late morning along w/ patchy -RA/-DZ. By this afternoon...VRB clouds- mostly cloudy as CIGS lift through MVFR to potential lo end VFR. Will continue w/ SCT-Likely SHRAS and there could be ISOLD tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the region from about 17Z/25-00Z/26. Confidence not high enough attm to add to the TAFs. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as lo pres finally moves away to the ENE. VFR conditions expected Thu as weak hi pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the region by late Thu night into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Sun. && .MARINE... As of 1015 AM EDT Wednesday... Fog has lifted across the Bay but lingers in the rivers per area CAMS. For the ocean, fog lingers mainly from Parramore ISland and points north. Updated to extend the dense FG advisory for the rivers and Ocean N of Parramore Island, while canceling it elsewhere. VSBYS aob 3/4NM. SCA remains in effect for the ocean into Thu with lingering long period swell of 10-12 sec. Also have it in effect through noon for the mouth of the Bay (will revisit this prior to noon as this may need to be extended through some of the aftn as well). Waves 1-2 ft or less for the rest of the Bay/rivers/sound. Broad low pressure was cntrd over south central VA late this morning. This low will continue to lift NE and acrs ern VA, the Delmarva, and into New Jersey this aftn through tonight. SSW 5-15 kt during today (genly <10 kt over the Bay and rivers), then become W then NW 10-15 kt throughout the marine area later tonight into Thu morning. The low will move farther away to the NE later tonight into Thu, as weak high pressure builds in fm the NNW. Waves/seas will subside later today thru Thu. Another low pressure area will affect the waters Thu night thru Fri, as it tracks fm the SE U.S. northeast acrs VA and into New Jersey. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ635>638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB MARINE...LKB/TMG

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