Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220554 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary over northern North Carolina will lift back north as a warm front early this morning. A more pronounced cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and Friday under the influence of high pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 845 PM EDT Monday... Weak frontal boundary remains just S and SW of the FA late this eve. Earlier SHRAS and tstms have drifted SW out of the FA the past few hours. That front will begin to pull back NNE late tonight (into central sections of the FA)...as it does so...SE winds will aid in spread lower level cloudiness over most of the local area. Expecting SHRAS and possible ISOLD tstms to begin to move back NE overnight...though w/ heating done...stability will take over the eventually limit any tstms (after midnight). Highest PoPs W and SW (30-50%) w/ 20-40% PoPs spreading ENE after midnight...but not quite to the lower MD ern shore. Lows from the u50s-l60s on the ern shore to the m-u60s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The front will continue to move northward on Tuesday. This will likely allow for a dry period at least across the W in the morning. However, a lee side trough develops during the afternoon. This, combined with a weak upper wave moving through the W-NW flow aloft will allow for a line of storms to develop across northern VA and perhaps impact the far northern part of the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon. The winds aloft are in the 35-40kt range Tuesday afternoon, which may be just enough for some strong wind gusts with any thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. SPC has placed northern VA into a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, and this just clips the northern neck and Caroline and Louisa Counties. This line of showers/storms will move through the forecast area Tuesday evening and will likely diminish after sunset due to loss of daytime heating. A more pronounced period of showers and storms are expected late Tue night into Wednesday as the cold front approaches the area and slowly moves through the area on Thursday. Best chances for showers/storms will be Wed afternoon due to height falls aloft and decreasing stability along the frontal zone. There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Wednesday across the entire area, but the best chance for any severe weather will likely be across the far southern tier where the best instability will occur. The tropical moisture will finally be scoured out with this front, and Thursday looks to be dry with much lower dew points as high pressure builds across the region from the NW. Highs each day will continue in the mid 80s, although Thursday will be much less humid. Lows continue muggy in the upper 60s/low 70s until Wed night which will see low-mid 60s. && && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Monday... A strong surface ridge and northwest flow aloft with the upper ridge axis to the west over the Mississippi Valley will provide dry weather with moderate temperatures for the beginning of the extended forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s Friday and the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s Thursday night and mid to upper 60s Friday night. But the upper ridge will erode through the holiday weekend with a gradual increase in moisture as it appears that another area of low pressure will form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and push more tropical moisture northward into the region. This could allow for more showers and tropical downpours for Sunday and again on Monday. The big model difference in the models is the handling of a backdoor cold front between the 12z GFS and ECMWF with the GFS pushing the front south through the area and the ECMWF keeping the boundary well north of the area. In either case, the chance for showers and some possibly heavy rainfall exist for the second half of the Holiday weekend. If the GFS is right with the front Monday could be a damp cool rainy day while the ECMWF would lead to more periodic showers with some breaks. At this time of year, seems more likely the for the front to hang north of the area. So have kept the temperatures up more in the low to mid 80s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... Weak frontal boundary slowly lifting NNE early this morning into NE NC and south central VA. Showers have genly diminished as they move into the local area, but some spotty showers may begin to affect KRIC/KORF/KPHF/KECG from about 10-15Z this morning. Flight restrictions are expected to drop down to IFR/LIFR for cigs and MVFR/IFR for vsbys from 08-14Z (the exception being KSBY where VFR prevails through 12Z then some MVFR possible from mainly 12-18Z). Added VCSH to all sites but SBY. Continued IFR- MVFR CIGS Tue morning...then local area enters warm sector w/ SCT- BKN CU and possible SHRAS- tstms in the late afternoon/evening (best chance for tstms will be after 20Z at KRIC/KSBY with a lower chance elsewhere). Mainly afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms are possible Wed as a cold front crosses the local area. Sfc high pressure looks to build in from the N by Thu and Fri bringing mainly VFR conditions during the end of the week.
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&& .MARINE...
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As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... SCA for lower Bay/lower James River has been cancelled as winds are now light at 10 kt or less. A weak boundary slowly lifts north of the waters overnight and into Tuesday. Winds will turn to the SE and then S or SW as the boundary lifts to the north. Winds Tuesday will range from 5 to 15 knots, with seas of 2 to 3 feet and waves of 1 to 2 feet. A cold front crosses the region on Wednesday and turns the winds to the W and NW around 5 to 10 knots through Thursday morning. High pressure builds into the area Thursday through Friday leading to generally tranquil marine conditions.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... Flood warnings continue for the James and Appomattox River basins. Mattoax is now forecast reach moderate flooding by early Wednesday morning. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the Chickahominy, Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. (allowed South Anna/Pamunkey river to expire). See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/21 remains at 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/21 remains at 8.52" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...AJB HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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