-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
812 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides off the southeast coast today, bringing
dry and very warm conditions to the local area, along with gusty
winds. A backdoor cold front drops through later Monday with
showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This
front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A stronger cold front crosses the area late
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front just south of the Great Lakes will gradually make it`s
way southward tonight. Latest CAMS suggest that convection
associated with this front over PA will diminish overnight as it
moves southward and loses daytime heating. Still, there is a signal
from the CAMS that a few leftover sprinkles may make it the the MD
eastern shore tonight. As such, will maintain a slight chance for
showers tonight in that area. Otherwise, generally clear to mostly
clear with temps staying mild in the upper 50s/lower 60s due to
steady SW winds of 10-20 mph (with some higher gusts especially
in the evening).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

Attention turns to the severe weather threat for
Monday. The cold front just north of the area will move across the
area during the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday.
Accompanying this front will be steep mid level lapse rates of
8.0C/km due to an EML originating from the northern plains,
with 0- 6km bulk shear values of 35 kt on the southern edge of
the strong mid level jet north of the region. The EML feature
will keep the atmosphere capped through early afternoon allowing
modest MLCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg as temps rise into the
mid 80s. CAMS are in better agreement in showing a line of
storms developing along the front by mid afternoon as the cap
breaks in central Virginia, then growing upscale into the late
afternoon before diminishing by dusk due to loss of daytime
heating. Kinematics and thermodynamics certainly suggest severe
is possible which is likely why the machine learning probs from
CSU and NCAR suggest a slight risk of severe weather. However,
the low level flow of W-SW (which extends through the lower
troposphere) would suggest limited moisture which will keep
coverage to a minimum. With all of this said, there seems to be
a conditional risk for severe weather tomorrow meaning that if
storms develop, there is a good chance that some of those will
become severe. Large hail would likely be the main concern at
the onset before becoming more of a wind threat if the clusters
become better organized. SPC has placed much of the area in a
SLGT risk (level 2 out of 5) on Monday.

Showers and storms may linger across the far south into early Monday
evening but should quickly end with loss of daytime heating and due
to the front moving south of the area. The front will return
northward as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night as an other low
pressure develops over the plains states. Will go with slight chance
PoPs in the afternoon across the southwestern part of the area,
spreading across the entire region on Tue night.

Warm day on Monday with areas north of I-64 in the lower 80s and
areas south of I-64 in the mid 80s. A little cooler on Tuesday but
still above normal in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure continues to lift ENE through the upper Midwest
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into the
southern states. There will tend to be more clouds Wednesday, though
precip chances will be low w/ little forcing (some CHC to slight CHC
PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the boundary). Highs in
the mid 70s NE, upper 70s for most of VA, and lower 80s far SE VA
and NE NC. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the extended
period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the
NE), despite a weak cold front moving through during the day. Will
keep chance PoPs through the day simply due to the cold frontal
passage occuring during the day. Another (stronger) cold front moves
toward the area later Friday and into the weekend into Saturday with
a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorm. Some model
disagreement with the timing of the front will the GFS showing a
Saturday FROPA, while the ECMWF shows a Sunday frontal passage. PoPs
remain on the low side as most guidance continues to show the front
losing most of its moisture E of the Appalachians. Temps Friday
continue to trend cooler but seasonable with 70s for most of the
area and perhaps in the 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance suggests
warmer temps on Saturday with the possible delayed frontal passage.
Large spread in the guidance however with temps in the upper
60s/lower 70s N and upper 70s south. Sunday will be the coolest day
in the forecast period with temps topping out in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected through the 00z/15 forecast period.
Gusty south to southwest will slowly diminish this evening into
early Monday, but remain gusty through around midnight. Due to
strong winds aloft and weakening winds near the surface, there
will be some wind shear to contend with at the terminals
overnight. Quiet on Monday morning but a weakening cold front
moves into the area by afternoon. This should trigger some
isolated to scattered storms by afternoon with strong wind
gusts starting in RIC by mid afternoon then extending SE to PHF
ORF and ECG by late afternoon or early evening.

Outlook...There is a lower chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue
night. Scattered to Isolated showers persist into Wed, though not
expecting flight restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure to the south across the NE
Gulf and Florida vicinity with weak low pressure over eastern
Michigan. Winds over the waters are SW 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and
rivers, closer to 10-15 kt for the waters S of the the mouth of the
bay. Waves are around 2 ft with seas 2-4 ft.

SW winds will continue this afternoon as a weak surface trough to
the west enhances the pressure gradient with the high off the SE
CONUS. SCA headlines remain in effect for the bay and rivers with
the coastal waters north of Parramore Island starting this evening.
Advisories for the upper rivers are forecast to come down at 7pm
with the northern bay and lower James zones ending at 10pm. The
southern bay and northern coastal waters should drop below SCA
thresholds late tonight. Waves will increase a bit through the
remainder of the afternoon, generally maxing out in the 2-3 ft
range. Seas will build to 4-5 ft for the northern coastal waters
through late tonight with 3-4 ft seas for areas to the south. A
weakening cold front drops south tomorrow with the potential for
some stronger storms along and ahead of the boundary. The main
threats with any storms will be locally stronger winds and
associated enhanced waves/seas. Winds turn to the NE behind the
front and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (staying sub-SCA through this
timeframe). Conditions will generally remain sub-SCA for the rest of
the week with some potential for seas to build to ~5 ft in the
northern coastal waters by Thursday or Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

Fire Weather SPS has expired and IFD conditions continue
to diminish as RH slowly recover.

Higher RH values and weaker wind on Monday. Still, RH values
could drop to 30 percent across NE NC Monday afternoon. Virginia
and MD RH values will be in the 30-40 percent range along with
chances for storms in the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ636-
     637.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAM/MRD
MARINE...RHR
FIRE WEATHER...