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327
FXUS61 KAKQ 051928
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Sunday...

Late this morning, a warm front was starting to lift back north
across the region. This is evident not only from the winds
having turned to the SE, but also the temperature gradient
across the area. Latest obs showed lower 70s in the SE with
dewpoints also in the 60s, and mid to upper 50s in the NW for
both temps and dewpoints. As the front continues northward this
aftn, temps will rise into the mid to possibly upper 70s SSE,
and should eventually rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s N.

Shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft as well as the front
advancing N, will lead to additional rounds of showers and
tstms this aftn into this evening. Expect the highest coverage
to gradually expand ewrd across the region. Coverage is then
expected to decrease late this evening and into the overnight,
as the main axis of pcpn progresses E. Chance PoPs then continue
E of I-95 through the night. Instability of 600-700 J/KG (mean
HREF SCAPE) means there will be a decent chance for thunder.
Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with higher
amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Remaining
mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain to start the week

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions


Mon and Tues mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will
persist through the week. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in the
(fairly weak) SW flow aloft plus a lee trough will lead to off and
on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally
diurnal pattern with the best chances in the afternoon through late
evening. Temps climb into the low 80s on Monday with dewpoints as
high as the upper 60s. HREF mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG,
but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected
outside of a strong storm or two. Highest coverage in precip on Mon
looks to be across the south (roughly S of US-460) during the
afternoon hours as of latest guidance. Tuesday is less certain, as
models are still showing some disagreement regarding coverage and
timing of precip. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the south
of low 80s in the north. Lows both nights will be in the mid-
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and
 above-normal temps Wednesday through Friday.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week.
A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both
suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass
over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these
looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into
the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then
cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with
plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily
rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for
severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level
lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked
up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a
slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly
dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s
to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and
in the lower to mid 70s Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

A warm front will push N of the area by this evening. However,
the warm front combined with shortwave energy/moisture/lift,
will produce sctd showers and tstms into tonight. So, expect
VFR to MVFR conditions with the pcpn into tonight. Then, expect
MVFR or IFR CIGs to return to the TAF sites later tonight into
Mon morning, due to lingering low level moisture behind the
exiting pcpn. Winds will be SE-S this aftn into Mon morning,
then become SW by later Mon morning. through the period and
gusty at the coast this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR or MVFR
conditions for Mon aftn, along with the return chance of
showers or tstms.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through
Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn,
with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into
central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas
are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The
warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind
becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by
Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt
through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will
be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as
the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger
cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern
  Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late
  tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.

Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24
hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies
over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft
above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal
anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide
tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the
higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and
Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to
drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW
and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to
localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the
higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early
Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ