Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170249 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1049 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will linger into early Tuesday morning, before ending well before sunrise. Cool and dry conditions are then expected Tuesday, with warmer temperatures returning by mid week as high pressure slides by to our south. Gusty west winds will accompany a cold front crossing the region Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Secondary system aloft currently pushing through the area, with rain having redeveloped across much of the CWA, particularly over the NE zones where higher dew pts linger. Even seeing some briefly heavier showers passing through. Bumped PoPs to likely there with mainly chc PoPs elsewhere. Still well mixed and somewhat breezy due to the cold pool aloft, with winds genly slow to diminish overnight. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s most areas (locally may see some lower-mid 30s in the Piedmont late (though expecting enough mixing/clouds and falling dew points into the 20s to prevent frost development). Lows along the coast will avg in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Primarily W winds (gusty to 20-25 kt) and cool/dry conditions Tue. Winds shift back to SW by Wed ahead of low pres diving ESE into the OH Valley. Highs Tue in the mid 50s-around 60F. Lows Tue night from the m-u30s NNW (sfc dew point depressions 5-10F may prevent frost) to the 40-45F S. Highs Wed from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore to the u60s-m70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC. Potent s/w aloft tracks by just N of the FA late Wed night-Thu morning...w/ a cold front (moisture starved) pushing quickly E through the local area. Expected development of gusty W winds Thu along w/ a substantial push of dry air (by afternoon) into the region. Far NNE areas of the FA may be brushed by BKN clouds and isold SHRAS. Lows Wed night in the u40s-l50s N to the m50s S. Highs Thu from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore to the u60s- m70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Below normal temperatures are expected through the extended portion of the forecast. NW flow aloft maintains dry/cooler wx will prevail for Thu-Sat. Lo pres will be exiting the central Plains Sat...tracking E and approaches the (lower) mid- Atlantic/SE states Sun-Mon...resulting in increasing clouds and 20-30% PoPs. Some drying from the N anticipated attm during next Mon. Lows Thu night in the u30s NW to the m40s SE. Highs Fri in the m-u50s E to around 60F W. Lows Fri night from the u30s NW to the l-m40s elsewhere. Highs Sat in the m50s at the coast to 60-65F inland. Lows Sat night ranging through 40s. Highs Sun from the u50 N to l60s S. Highs Mon mainly 60-65F. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions over the region with mid and high clouds still prominent. Big low pressure system over the NE U.S. will continue to rotate northward. A few very light showers or sprinkles persist over northern parts of the CWA and over the Eastern Shore. Some clearing is expected during the overnight but more mid level clouds will move into the area late morning into the afternoon. Conditions will remain VFR during the TAF period. W-WNW winds will diminish some tonight but will again become gusty 20-30 kt Tuesday from late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: VFR through Wed. A cold front will cross the region Thu accompanied by BKN (VFR) CIGS and gusty WNW winds. && .MARINE...
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Decided to raise SCA for the York and Lower James as models indicate an increase in gradient wind tonight, then stronger sfc winds occurring on Tue. Later shifts will have to monitor the Rappahannock and upper and middle Bay for increase wind conditions. Coastal water remain elevated with seas 5 to 8 ft from Fenwick to Parramore but generally 4 to 6 ft south. Extended the SCA for the northern waters to 4 PM Tue and through Tue morning for areas south. Winds will again become gusty during the morning and early afternoon but with westerly flow, seas should gradually subside. Pres gradient may relax some Tuesday night, but WSW winds Wed increase again ahead of the next front that crosses the waters shifting the winds to the NW Wed night. Behind the strong strong NW winds persist. In general SCA conditions may persist through much of this week with just a brief lull.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal food advisories are in effect for the northern Neck and bay side of MD eastern shore (Dorchester/Somerset) through the upcoming high tide cycle early Tue morning. Tidal departures avg around +1.5 ft in these areas, but the trend over the past few hrs has been for slowly falling departures. this trend is expected to continue Tue as W to NW winds and forecast currents support water that has been trapped in the Bay to exit over the next 24 hrs. Held off on any advisories at OXB as the water level there expected to come in at 3.9 ft, just under the 4.0 foot minor flooding threshold.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021-023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077- 078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-636- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JEF/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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