Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260625 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 225 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected through tonight under the influence of high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture through the upcoming holiday weekend, mainly in the form of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 930 PM EDT Friday... Made a few tweaks to dew points and cloud cover. Delayed increasing clouds unti later tonight per current satellite imagery. Otherwise, no changes needed to afternoon forecast. Previous Discussion...High pressure has shifted a bit further offshore this afternoon allowing a return of SSW flow over the local area and warmer temps. Other than scattered CU in parts of the area this afternoon, the weather is otherwise quiet with all shower activity relegated to the Carolinas and the mountains of SW VA. Little change is expected in the weather tonight with the high offshore and light SSW winds in place. Mainly clear with lows in the 60s to around 70. Higher dew pts and SW flow should mostly preclude fog formation early Saturday morning. However, it cannot be completely ruled out for locations such as PHF/AKQ/ECG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be our predominate weather pattern through Memorial Day. This will result in a continued increase in humidity locally through Sunday, due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. By Monday there are indications that a little deeper feed of sub-tropical moisture will make a run at central/eastern NC and perhaps far southern portions of VA. While locally heavy rain will be possible with the strongest tstms Sat/Sun (PWs 1.75-2.00"), the best opportunity for widespread moderate/heavy downpours and potential flooding should hold off until Monday for the aforementioned areas as a more pronounced area of sub-tropical moisture (PWs increasing to 2.0-2.3") arrives. As far as PoPs go, will carry high chc to likely (50-60%) along/west of a line from EMV-XSA-CGE Sat aftn, lowering to slight chc (~20%) for coastal NE NC. Similar PoPs Sunday but with highest PoPs oriented a bit more N/NE. High chc/likely PoPs (50-65%) along/north of a line from FVX-FYJ-WAL, lowering to slight chc (~20%) over the northern OBX. By Monday, will generally have chc PoPs everywhere (30-50%), but likely PoPs (55-65%) along/south of VA Hwy 58. Temps will remain warm Sat/Sun with highs generally in the mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s immediate coast. A bit cooler Monday with increased cloud cover and pcpn chances. Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... This period to be governed by the moisture and remnant low track of Sub-tropical Storm Alberto. After stalling across the Gulf States Mon, the system is progged to drift slowly ne into the TN valley Tue/Wed with the remnant low pushing ne along or just east of the Applach mts Thu/Fri. Kept low chc pops (20-40%) across the region Mon nite thru Tues nite then increased to high chc pops (40-50%) Wed thru Fri. Highs Tues mid-upr 80s, low-mid 80s Wed/Thu/Fri. Lows mid 60s-lwr 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions anticipated through the 06Z TAF period. Light S winds this morning will increase and become a bit gusty by midday, but gusts should remain no higher then 15-20 kt range. Patchy fog is possible at KPHF/KECG early this morning, but confidence is low, with most guidance suggesting potential is a bit better in the Piedmont. However, with dew points increasing and light winds, it cannot be ruled out. OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each afternoon/evening through Mon. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible in/around tstms. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... No headlines through the weekend/Mon as SSW winds around the Bermuda hi pres avg aob 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Winds become SE by mid week in advance of any remnant low from Alberto...then SW behind the lows departure. Conditions to remain blo SCA levels. && .CLIMATE... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/24 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/24 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM/MAS/WRS MARINE...ALB/MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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