Text Products for FWS Issued by AKQ

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

000
FNUS71 KAKQ 250955
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Nassawango-U39...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
555 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure builds north of the area today, sliding offshore
later this week. Some passing scattered showers this morning, with
partial clearing this afternoon. Winds remain northeast 10 to 12 mph
today with afternoon minumum relative humidity values remaining
relatively high (~60%) with persistent onshore flow.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 18 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (50400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 early in the morning increasing to 64 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  48  50  52  51  48  49  47  46
Weather cov.....SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
Temp............50  51  53  53  53  53  53  52  52
RH..............71  66  59  59  59  59  59  59  59
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..11  11  12  12  11  11  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.19  19  20  20  19  19  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.24  23  22  22  21  21  20  20  18
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............64  63  61  48  47  64  59  57  53
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46  46  46  48  48  50  46  44  40
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................46 early in the evening decreasing to 4 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........44  41  38  31  27  24  27  34  38  38  38  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............50  49  47  48  46  45  44  43  43  42  42  41
RH..............63  68  71  68  76  79  82  86  86  86  86  89
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..9   7   6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.14  12  11  9   8   7   7   6   5   5   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  14  12  10  9   9   9   9   10  12
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
ADI.............46  18  7   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   5   5
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31  24  17  14  9   6   5   4   4   4   4   5
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (42600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 early in the morning increasing to 60 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........31     17     10     6      2      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............40     40     47     53     56     59
RH..............92     92     63     46     42     37
20 ft wind......NE 4   NE 5   E 7    E 9    E 10   E 9
20 ft wind gust.7      9      13     15     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1400   2600   3400   3900   3400
Transport wind..NE 13  E 15   E 15   E 14   E 13   E 13
LVORI...........6      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............6      28     51     60     46     51
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8      19     35     42     43     36
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412394.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org
National Weather Service National Headquarters
